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2012 NFL Week 1 Picks and Podcast

We’re back with the 8th year of the NFL Picks podcast. A few changes this year as we’ve moved into a 3 man booth. Apparently Ron Jaworski Ryan McGowan is not hip enough to connect with our younger audience. Ryan will still be making his picks and locks every week but only occasionally appear on the show.

So you’re stuck with Vin, RJ, and Burton/Peso…

We’re back with the 8th year of the NFL Picks podcast. A few changes this year as we’ve moved into a 3 man booth. Apparently Ron Jaworski Ryan McGowan is not hip enough to connect with our younger audience. Ryan will still be making his picks and locks every week but only occasionally appear on the show.

So you’re stuck with Vin, RJ, and Burton/Peso. Mike Ciccarone is now the low man on the totem pole and will be filling in on weeks when one of us has better things to do.

Anyway, welcome back to the podcast — we know you missed us. The featured games this week are Bills at Tebows, Niners at Packers, and Steelers at Broncos.

You can download the podcast directly (running time 75 mins) or subscribe to the feed.

If you use iTunes, just click here and then click subscribe and iTunes will take care of the rest.

NFL Week 1 2012 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Burton Actual
Cowboys @ Giants (-3.5) Giants Giants Giants Giants
Eagles @ Browns (+8.5) Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Redskins @ Saints (-7) Saints Saints Saints Saints
Jaguars @ Vikings (-3.5) Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Colts @ Bears (-9.5) Bears Bears Bears Bears
Rams @ Lions (-7) Lions Lions Lions Lions
Falcons @ Chiefs (+3) Falcons Chiefs Chiefs Falcons
Patriots @ Titans (+5.5) Patriots Patriots Titans Patriots
Bills @ Jets (-3) Jets Bills Bills Jets
Dolphins @ Texans (-11.5) Texans Texans Texans Texans
Panthers @ Bucs (+1.5) Panthers Panthers Bucs Panthers
Seahawks @ Cards (+2.5) Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Cards
Niners @ Packers (-4.5) Packers Packers Packers Packers
Steelers @ Broncos (-1.5) Steelers Steelers Broncos Broncos
Bengals @ Ravens (-6) Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Chargers @ Raiders (-1) Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
Prev Week 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Overall 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Burton Actual
Cowboys @ Giants (-3.5) Giants Giants Giants Giants
Eagles @ Browns (+8.5) Browns Browns Browns Eagles
Redskins @ Saints (-7) Redskins Saints Saints Saints
Jaguars @ Vikings (-3.5) Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Colts @ Bears (-9.5) Bears Bears Colts Bears
Rams @ Lions (-7) Lions Lions Lions Lions
Falcons @ Chiefs (+3) Falcons Chiefs Chiefs Falcons
Patriots @ Titans (+5.5) Patriots Patriots Titans Patriots
Bills @ Jets (-3) Jets Bills Bills Jets
Dolphins @ Texans (-11.5) Texans Texans Texans Dolphins
Panthers @ Bucs (+1.5) Panthers Panthers Bucs Panthers
Seahawks @ Cards (+2.5) Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Cards
Niners @ Packers (-4.5) Packers Packers Packers Packers
Steelers @ Broncos (-1.5) Steelers Steelers Broncos Broncos
Bengals @ Ravens (-6) Ravens Ravens Bengals Bengals
Chargers @ Raiders (-1) Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
Prev Week 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Overall 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (0-0, Balance=$1000) There are only two types of people who are happy Art Modell is dead: unforgiving browns fans and degenerate gamblers. I am neither. However, I do like winning money. Remember folks, any time someone of import dies, bet the motherflippin’ house on that team. Along with the revenge play (personal revenge, not the “lost the first game, will win the rematch” variety), this is probably my favorite indicator.

The Ravens have started strong under Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh going 4-0 since Harbaugh took over. On the flip side, Cinci has gone only 1-3 in that same period and has lost 3 straight to the Ravens. Even with Suggs out, and the emergence of Dalton and Green, the Bengals won’t have sufficient offense to score enough points to beat the Ravens. Joe Flacco is not a highly regarded passer but he’s not exactly Trent Dilfer either. He came within a fingertip of going down as the winning QB in one of the best AFC games in the past decade. I’m one of the few that believes in Joe.

Unlike my cohosts, I didn’t lose my balls over the summer. I’m putting $110 to win $100 on Baltimore (-6)

BostonMac: (0-0, Balance=$1000) Did anyone watch Hard Knocks? I mean, did anyone watch after the episode where Chad Johnson got cut? Yeah me neither. But one thing I do know is that the Miami Dolphins are bad. They might not be ’08 Lions bad, but they are god-awful. Now you have Ryan Tannehill making his first start on the road against a team that is (once again) one of the chic picks in the AFC. (Not that Tannehill even know what conference the Texans are in, or any divisions for that matter.) The Texans are going to kill the Dolphins. I’ll put $55 to win $50 to kick off the season on HOUSTON (-11.5). (Of course, this being Week 1 and my Week 1 record being what it is, the Dolphins will undoubtedly pull off a Bills-over-Patriots 31-0 shocker.)

RJ: (0-0, Balance=$1000) Godammit I miss Ryan on the show already. Not only will I not get to hear endless Seinfeld episodes recalled (like the one where Kramer poisons Kenny Bania with Lily of the Valley in order to get George back on his side so he can take down Elaine’s southwest drug empire. I may have mixed that up with another show–check back). Ryan was the only one who appreciated my “Line Value” alerts; and boy do I have a big one for the first week.

The 49ers are a little overrated going into 2012. Sure, they’re still solid defensively and Alex Smith had a fine year and finally cemented his place as a passable NFL quarterback. Still, because of a too-high turnover differential and tougher schedule I expect a step backwards. Green Bay, meanwhile is still a home juggernaut (avg. margin of victory 12.6 points in 2011) and highly motivated after last year’s disappointing playoff exit. While the ‘Niners should be motivated too, I’ll take the Lambeau factor and the Packers (-4.5) as an easy cover since it’s less than a touchdown. Enjoy the value, and to hell with that Bryan McGowan quitter.

Burton: (0-0, Balance=$1000) There isn’t much analysis based on facts or stats or talent or anything in my lock of the week this week: there’s just the good ol’ “I’m gonna bet against ya until ya prove me wrong” policy that carried me for half of last season. As I’ve been very vocal about, I was the first person in the world to point out that Tampa Bay was the worst team in the NFL last season, calling it out when the Bucs were 3-2. But the worst team they did become, and for one of the few times in the history of Poor Man’s PTI NFL Picks Show, I looked like something more than a bumbling idiot.

Well, I’m not sold on Tampa Bay being awful this year; in fact, I think the Bucs will be noticeably better than last year. But I’m not going to turn down an opportunity to remind you about how accurately I gauged the Bucs last year. And just because I like the rare occasion to brag, I’m going to lock Carolina (-1.5) to head into the New Sombrero and move into first place in the NFC South courtesy of the “best division record” tiebreaker. It may be a technicality, but anything to give me reason to bitch about the Falcons is welcome. I’m not going big, just $55 to win $50, because to be honest this is only my seventh or eighth most confident pick. But LOTW is not just about confidence: it’s also about style. And if I can lock my seventh or eighth most confident game and get a win, the style points would make it doubly good.

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