NL Central Preview: Pittsburgh all the way to fourth!

NL Central Projected Standings

Team	Win	Loss	GB
y-Houston	98	64	—
St Louis	91	71	7
Chi Cubs	90	72	8
Pittsburgh	76	86	22
Cincinnati	61	101	37
Milwaukee	58	104	40

I’m still waiting for spring to hit me.

Six inches of snow line up around my block and maybe sometime before June it will melt.

Nah.

But however cold it is here, it is colder in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati, where baseball season means another attempt to avoid a 100-loss season. Maybe all three will do it.

Nah.

Even with Griffey back the Reds suck. Even with Ben Sheets the Brewers suck. Even with, um, well the Pirates suck.

Nah.

The Pirates will be one of the most improved teams in baseball in 2005. But that will still only be good enough for fourth.

The best team in the NL Central is the Houston Astros. Oswalt, Clemens, and a healthy Andy Pettite is as good as a top-3 as any team in baseball. Come October, it may be the best. As well, they have four guys who will compete to be the #4 and #5 in the rotation that all have a decent amount of starting experience. This makes them one of the deepest teams on the mound in the National League.

Alright, Biggio and Bagwell are not getting younger and the rest of the (second coming of the)Killer B’s were waived bye-bye. Brad Ausmus has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in the sport (purposely avoided use of the term “game”; when salaries reach $18,000,000 for a 40-god-knows-what, it is no longer a “game”).

The rest of the offense is inexperienced, but Ensberg and Everett are improving and provide a stable albeit not spectacular defensive left side. Jose Vizcaino is always there to take over if necessary.

They will be led by pitching, but they have enough offense to avoid repeating the feats of the 2003 Dodgers. They will also make trades to bring in offense during the season.

When it all settles down, they will win the NL Central.

Projected Record: 98-64

On paper, the St. Louis Cardinals are the best team. But when Duke beat UNLV more than a decade ago, it was not because of what was on paper.

They have a great lineup. Eckstein, Walker, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Reggie Sanders, Grudzielanek, and Yadier Molina. That offense can score some runs.

Mark Mulder is still a mystery as to whether he is ready to be an ace though. Another question is whether Chris Carpenter can equal last year. Recordwise, he did well in Toronto, but look at those ERAs. 6.26??? He still is not proven, but he has enough offense that even with an era in the mid-low fours he can go 15-8 or so. Jeff Suppan is coming off a year with a career-best 4.16 ERA. Not impressive. Jason Marquis is as well coming off a year in which he set a career-best ERA. Can he do it again? God knows what to expect out of Rick Ankiel. And when he returns, what will we expect out of Matt Morris?

There are too many questions to be answered out of the pitching staff to declare this team the best team in the NL Central. Their bullpen is solid, however. Isringhausen has become a great closer. Mike Myers meets another team (make it eight) and Julian Tavarez is a good middle reliever. Watch for Tavarez to move into the rotation if anything happens with Ankiel though.

There are too many questions to solidify this team as the best in the national league, and they will need another run like they did last summer. Can it happen again, or did the luck run out for good last October?

Projected Record: 91-71

The Cubs are as solid a team as anyone is and by far the most solid team in the NL Central. But they are not much better than solid.

Corey Patterson has still yet to develop in the box, but he is a cheap way to get great defense. Hairston was a solid acquisition. In the six seasons he played more than half the games, Nomar has had in between 190 and 210 hits each year. He has power that he wisely uses only when necessary. Ramirez is a solid clean-up man. He is suspect in the field, but he is coming off a much-improved year. But after how poorly he did in the field in 2003, that is not saying much. Burnitz, on the downside of his career, has quietly had six 30 dinger years in the last 7 seasons, but remains a defensive liability. Lee is a very solid first baseman and Todd Walker is a model of consistency at second. Michael Barrett is solid behind the plate. But they have no depth anywhere.

We all know what Prior and Wood can do when, scratch that, if they are healthy. Carlos Zambrano was the most underrated pitcher in the Big Leagues the past two seasons. Maddox had been a model of consistency for a decade and a half, but he has slipped the past two years. I don’t know what to expect out of Rusch. Their bullpen is there weakest part, but it is still average.

Projected Record: 90-72

Watch out for the Pittsburgh Pirates when your team plays them. They won’t be as bad as everybody thinks.

Matt Lawton finally rebounded after a couple of down seasons last year. Jack Wilson will look to repeat his breakout performance of last year while Bay and Craig Wilson and Wiggington hope to improve after decent years last year. Tike Redman was solid last year in his first full year, although not as good statistically as his abbreviated appearance in 2003. Cota is untested, but Benito Santiago has remained solid at the plate and gotten better behind it in his old age. Jose Castillo is unproven behind the plate but was successful in the field in his rookie season.

When he returns, Oliver Perez will look to duplicate a great year. He went 12-10 with an ERA under three and 239 Ks. Can he duplicate it though? Kip Wells will look to return to his form from 2002 and 2003, not 2004. Josh Fogg got run support each of the last three years. Can Pittsburgh make him the lone lucky pitcher four years in a row, or will he pick it up? Mark Redman’s only good year came for the 2003 champion Marlins. They need a number 5 starter. At closer, Mesa will be as erratic and unpredictable as ever.

They will be much improved. Hopefully they keep the team together.

Projected Record: 76-86

OK, the Cincinnati Reds.

Well, Jiminez is average. Kearnes has gotten worse each of his three years in the bigs. Sean Casey is good and Ken Griffey, Jr. was the best player since Ted Williams when he was healthy.

Conversely, Adam Dunn is the most overrated player in the game. He is terrible. He is only power. He cannot run. He cannot hit. He cannot field. He is terrible. He may be the worst star in the history of Major League Baseball and it is not even close. I’m sorry. This guy is just plain terrible. 195 strikeouts? .249 to .215 to a whopping .266! 29 errors in barely 400 games in the outfield. OUTFIELD! 7 in 73 games at first base. I’m sorry. He has a lot of improving to do just to be an average player.

Randa is good. LaRue is average. Lopez sucks.

Wait, here’s a trend. Guess who may be the most overrated pitcher in baseball? Eric Milton! His career BEST ERA is 4.32. IN SIX CAREER SEASONS! But that is better than Paul Wilson, who’s career BEST ERA is 4.36. IN FIVE CAREER FULL SEASONS! And then Ramon Ortiz, with a career BEST ERA of 3.77 when the Angels won the World Series with a second best of 4.36. IN FIVE CAREER FULL SEASONS! And young gun Aaron Harang, with a career BEST ERA of 4.83. IN THREE CAREER SEASONS! Claussen and Hancock are the favorites for the number three spot. They both have done nothing (with worse ERAs). Luke Hudson is promising coming off of a 4-2 mark in nine starts with an ERA of 2.42!!!!!!!!!!!! Who cares about the bullpen because this team lacks the starting pitching to EVER turn them over a lead regardless of whether they do anything offensively. Danny Graves was successful in his return to the closer roll after going 4-15 in 2003 as the starter.

Projected Record: 61-101

Alright, what can we expect out of the Milwaukee Brewers? Nothing, of course.

Sheets finally broke at last year as his team got worse. Doug Davis had a great season last year but no offense like Sheets. Victor Santos had a better record than Sheets and an ERA two points higher. Why do the below average pitchers always seem to get the run support? If they go to a three-man rotation, they may be competitive through June…..

They have almost no offense. That sums it up. There is no point taking it position-by-position. This team is horrible.

If they get lucky, Sheets and Davis will get out. No, I don’t mean if Milwaukee gets lucky, I mean if Sheets and Davis get lucky.

This franchise is misrun and in shambles. There is no point talking more about them.

Projected Record: 58-104