by Trevor Freeman
The AL West should be a season long roller coaster ride. It would not surprise me if all four teams in this division finish with between 79 and 94 wins. There were a lot of comings and goings with this group. We said “So long” to Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Troy Glaus and Troy Percival while waiving “hello” to Adrian Beltre, Jason Kendall, and Steve Finley. How will it all shake out? Here is a summary of each team with our projected order of finish at the bottom of the page.Oakland A’s
Projected Lineup:
CF: Mark Kotsay
C: Jason Kendall
3B: Eric Chavez
DH: Erubiel Durazo
LF: Eric Byrnes
1B: Scott Hatteberg
SS: Bobby Crosby
2B: Keith Ginter
RF: Nick Swisher
Projected Rotation:
Barry Zito
Rich Harden
Dan Haren
Joe Blanton
Dan Meyer
Key Bullpen Members:
Octavio Dotel
Kiko Calero
Juan Cruz
Chad Bradford
Ricardo Rincon
Huston Street
Jairo Garcia
Keiichi Yabu
Remember when Christina Aguilera first started out in singing. She was this somewhat demure teen pop star with tons of potential. After awhile Aguilera started getting stale and never quite became the star industry people thought she would be. Upon realization of this Aguilera junked her whole image, did probably the greatest Maxim photo shoot of all-time, and became this “slutty” sex kitten. Why do I bring this up? Because the Oakland A’s just did the same thing.
For years the Big Three defined the A’s. Then it must have hit Billy Beane the same way it hit Aguilera. Billy Beane had to see that the A’s were falling into the “lost” potential category and needed to make a change.
Let’s begin with the offense. Billy Beane upgraded the lineup by bringing in Jason Kendall to replace Damian Miller. Kendall has been regarded as one of the best five catchers in baseball for years and he now finally gets to ply his trade in his home state of California. Jason Kendall is bringing a .319 BA and .399 OBP and plenty of speed to the table. With him and Mark Kotsay who batted .306, had a .370 OBP, and an .829 OPS, Eric Chavez should be seeing some guys on base when he comes up. Mark Kotsay is also one of the best all around centerfielders as he ranks in the top five in any defensive statistic used by statheads. Gold Glove Winner Eric Chavez swings the power stick in the A’s lineup and was primed for a HUGE year before he got injured last season. Durazo and Byrnes follow him and they are both coming off the best years of their careers. Scott Hatteberg has turned into an excellent fielding first baseman and is essential in this lineup as he sees a ton of pitches. Have I mentioned Bobby Crosby? Last season’s Rookie of the Year had a tremendous offseason and looks primed to improve on the numbers he put up. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him improve to .260 with 25 jacks and 80 RBI’s. However you want to know why Billy Beane is a GREAT GM. Little moves like the Keith Ginter one. Keith Ginter is a big upgrade over Marco Scutaro as Ginter’s splits are .260, .333, 19 dingers and 60 RBI’s vs. Scutaro’s .273, .297, 7 and 43. Beane got Ginter for nothing. Having Ginter in there over Scooter will be worth at least 2-3 wins this season. No question about it. Get ready for Nick Swisher’s debut as well. The focus of a lot of attention in Moneyball will be starting this season. The bench should be nice with the addition of Charlie Thomas, a healthy Mark Ellis and Marco Scutaro moving back to his utility role. You know what this lineup is still……….young. They have room to grow. I fully expect it to happen.
Now we got a little younger in the starting rotation BUT (hold on let me get my Billy Beane sabremetrics cap on) the A’s now have a bullpen FULL of power arms. Check out the numbers Juan Cruz and Kiko Calero put up last year (ERA, K’s per 9 and esp. opponents BA). We also will have the benefit of Octavio Dotel pitching for a full season as well. If the A’s had Dotel last year at the beginning that’s 5-6 more wins. Rincon is tough on lefties (Left handed hitters batted .200 against him). Chad Bradford is tough on righties (Righties batted .211). Jairo “Jerry” Garcia and Huston Street are both highly thought of youngsters that throw BB’s. Justin “The Duke” Duchsherer is an effective Longman. Keiichi Yabu is coming over from Japan and is also expected to provide depth in the pen and in the starting rotation. I’m going to come right out and say it. The A’s have the deepest bullpen in the West. That is a MONUMENTAL change from last season.
While on paper the starters may look weaker, Harden and Zito are a very nice 1-2 punch. Rich Harden is 23 years old and on the cusp of being the most dominant pitcher in the AL West. The last half of 2004 he was “lights out”. Barry Zito had a subpar year last season. I think he’s too good a pitcher to not bounce back in this campaign. Danny Haren was very solid in September and in the playoffs last year for the Cards and will be in the 3 hole. Joe Blanton was the focus of Moneyball and was great in the two months he was up last year. Dan Meyer was the jewel of the Atlanta Braves farm system (they haven’t put out many great pitchers…..and yes I was being sarcastic) and should come along nicely in the 5 slot. Might I say that the knocks on the “Young Three” are the same that the “Big Three” had when they first came up. They turned out alright, didn’t they?
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
(how stupid was that name listed above, just change it back to Anaheim!!!!!)
Projected Lineup
1B: Darin Erstad
2B: Chone Figgins
CF: Steve Finley
RF: Vladimir Guerrero
LF: Garret Anderson
DH: Tim Salmon
SS: Orlando Cabrera
C: Bengie Molina
3B: Dallas McPherson
Projected Rotation
Bartolo Colon
Jarrod Washburn
John Lackey
Kelvim Escobar
Paul Byrd
Key Bullpen Members
Francisco Rodriguez
Brendan Donnelly
Scott Shields
Esteban Yan
Kevin Gregg
Matt Hensley
Dustin Moseley
It was an interesting offseason for one of the highest spending teams in baseball. The Angels said “adios” to a lot of guys who got them to the party in 2002. Out went Troy Percival, Troy Glaus, Aaron Sele, and David Eckstein. Jose Guillen who had a productive campaign in his one-year stint with the Halos was also jettisoned. In their places walk Orlando Cabrera, Steve Finley, Paul Byrd and Esteban Yan. Will this have an effect? I think somewhat, but the Angels like the A’s will weather the storm and put a good baseball team on the field.
The lineup despite the loss of Troy Glaus, Jose Guillen, and David Eckstein is still very potent. Vladimir Guerrero is without a doubt one of the best five players in all of baseball. Between his cannon for an arm and his big bat Guerrero is a guy to build a franchise around. Garret Anderson will check out his bust in Cooperstown one day. Anderson is the Sam Waterston of baseball. Year after year he just shows up and gives great performances. He’s the kind of guy you hope your kids grow up to become. Steve Finley is the real key to this group. If he can make the league switch and put up the same numbers he did last year the Angels could be the team to beat in the entire American League. Finley is no spring chicken though, so it will be interesting. Erstad and Figgins are both tough outs that give you good speed at the top of the order. Dallas McPherson is a rookie everyone needs to keep an eye on as he is being touted in many circles as a Rookie of the Year candidate. The Angels declined to offer arbitration to third baseman/DH Troy Glaus mainly because they felt Dallas McPherson would be an adequate replacement. It is a very similar to the Tejada-Crosby situation in Oakland. McPherson ripped up the minors last year. While he has offensive juice, his glove is supposedly a little shaky.
Colon and Washburn will lead this rotation. The Paul Byrd signing excited no one. I would have kept Aaron Sele instead. This rotation doesn’t have a lot of upside since they are all veterans. Here is where I think people are taking Troy Percival leaving for granted. The Angels have a collection of 6 inning starters. That is fine……..if you have a strong bullpen. By taking Percival out of the equation the Angels just moved everyone up. That means you have Francisco Rodriguez closing with Donnelly and Shields having to pitch the 7th and 8th innings. I thought the Angels strength was always in the pen and it surprises me they would let it downgrade. I would have kept Percival for two years and left everyone in their roles. It’s small quibbling, but it could be worth 3-4 victories this season and the margin in the West is very small.
Texas Rangers
Projected Lineup
SS: Michael Young
3B: Hank Blalock
2B: Alfonso Soriano
1B: Mark Teixiera
LF: Kevin Mench
RF: Richard Hidalgo
DH: David Dellucci
CF: Laynce Nix
C: Rod Barajas
Projected Rotation
Kenny Rogers
Ryan Drese
Chan Ho Park
Chris Young
Juan Dominguez or Pedro Astacio
Key Bullpen Members
Francisco Cordero
Frank “The Chair” Francisco
Carlos Almanzar
Joaquin Benoit
Doug Brocail
R.A. Dickey
Ron Mahay
You ever give advice to somebody for years and they just never took it. Meet the Texas Rangers. This is a team that has ALWAYS needed to add pitching and just has never done it. They will not win the AL West for the same reason they don’t win every year. You cannot win if you don’t have arms. I like Ryan Drese and I think he will be a great pitcher, but for him and Kenny Rogers as your 1-2 scare nobody. You don’t know what you’re getting out of Chan Ho Park. Chris Young was a great hoops player at Princeton, but as a pitcher the jury is still out. I’m not even going to get into whoever their fifth starter is. What’s sad is that the Rangers actually have a good bullpen. If they could get pitchers that could just get them to the sixth inning in good shape the Rangers have the kind of guys necessary to hold the lead. Francisco Cordero is the most underrated closer in the game of baseball. “The Chair” is also very good out of the pen.
On paper this is one of the better lineups in all of baseball. They all threw A-Rod the collective middle finger last year by not skipping a beat with his departure. Michael Young, Hank Blalock, Alfonso Soriano, and Mark Teixiera might be the best all-around infield in the game of baseball. They can all hit and field with the best of them. The outfield has never given the production you would expect, but I think adding Richard Hidalgo could remedy that.
Plus and this is a huge factor with the Rangers. Buck Showalter is the best manager in this division. Having a guy like Showalter calling the shots is worth 7-8 wins a season. No question in my mind.
Seattle Mariners
Projected Lineup
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
CF: Randy Winn
2B: Bret Boone
3B: Adrian Beltre
1B: Richie Sexson
DH: Bucky Jacobsen
LF: Raul Ibanez
SS: Pokey Reese
C: Dan Wilson
Projected Rotation
Joel Pineiro
Jaime Moyer
Ryan Franklin
Gil Meche
Bobby Madritisch
Key Bullpen Members
Eddie Guardado
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Ron Villone
Rafael Soriano
Julio Mateo
Travis Blackley
Scott Atchison
Here’s a team that I thought improved themselves in the offseason. How much is determined by their two main signings, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. Beltre had a career season in his “contract” year. If Beltre can do the same thing this year the Mariners will be in great shape. I think the real Adrian Beltre is somewhere between his last year with the Dodgers and his previous campaigns. Richie Sexson swings a big stick when he is healthy and I think being back in his home state of Washington will rejuvenate him. I really like Bucky Jacobsen and I think with at-bats he will have a great year. Ichiro Suzuki is the best leadoff hitter in baseball and I fully expect him to have MVP numbers. Randy Winn is consistent (remarkably so if you look at his career numbers). Bret Boone had an off-year last year. Should he return to being the Boone of old, this Mariner lineup will be damn good. At the bottom of the order nobody is worried about Pokey Reese or Dan Wilson. Reese was a free agent acquisition who can field. He just can’t hit.
The pitching staff is better than people think. Pineiro is looking to bounce back from an off year and I think he will. Moyer is crafty. Franklin and Meche are serviceable. I’ve heard great things about Bobby Madritsch and I think he is the guy to watch in the starting rotation. The bullpen has live arms. “Everyday” Eddie Guardado is a strong closer. Hasegawa is a very good bridge to him. His motion is funky but his pitches have juice. Travis Blackley is somebody to watch out here. Blackley looked very good starting late in the year against Oakland and could be a guy finds his way into the rotation should someone falter. At the very least he gives the Mariners a good young arm in waiting.
Out of the four teams in the AL West I think the Mariners are the fourth best. That being said I see them winning 10-14 more games this season, which should make the race very interesting.
Projected AL West Standings
Oakland 94-68
Angels 92-70
Texas 89-73
Seattle 81-81
If you have any questions or comments feel free to contact me at [email protected].