The featured games this week are Philly @ Tennessee, Pittsburgh @ Miami, Minnesota @ Green Bay, and NY Giants @ Dallas.
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NFL Week 7 2010 Picks
|Bengals @ Falcons||Falcons||Falcons||Falcons||Falcons|
|Rams @ Bucs||Rams||Bucs||Bucs||Bucs|
|Redskins @ Bears||Redskins||Redskins||Redskins||Redskins|
|Browns @ Saints||Saints||Saints||Saints||Saints|
|Bills @ Ravens||Ravens||Ravens||Ravens||Ravens|
|Eagles @ Titans||Titans||Titans||Eagles||Eagles|
|Niners @ Panthers||Niners||Niners||Panthers||Niners|
|Steelers @ Dolphins||Steelers||Steelers||Steelers||Steelers|
|Jaguars @ Chiefs||Chiefs||Chiefs||Chiefs||Jaguars|
|Cards @ Seahawks||Seahawks||Seahawks||Cards||Seahawks|
|Patriots @ Chargers||Chargers||Patriots||Chargers||Chargers|
|Raiders @ Broncos||Broncos||Broncos||Broncos||Broncos|
|Vikings @ Packers||Packers||Vikings||Packers||Packers|
|Giants @ Cowboys||Giants||Giants||Cowboys||Cowboys|
|Prev Week||9-5 (.643)||7-7 (.500)||10-4 (.714)||9-5 (.643)|
|Overall||49-41 (.544)||48-42 (.533)||49-41 (.544)||53-37 (.589)|
Against the Spread
|Bengals @ Falcons (-3.5)||Falcons||Falcons||Falcons||Falcons|
|Rams @ Bucs (-2.5)||Rams||Bucs||Bucs||Bucs|
|Redskins @ Bears (-3)||Redskins||Redskins||Redskins||Redskins|
|Browns @ Saints (-13.5)||Saints||Saints||Saints||Saints|
|Bills @ Ravens (-13)||Ravens||Ravens||Ravens||Ravens|
|Eagles @ Titans (-3)||Titans||Titans||Eagles||Eagles|
|Niners @ Panthers (+3)||Niners||Niners||Panthers||Niners|
|Steelers @ Dolphins (+3)||Steelers||Steelers||Steelers||Steelers|
|Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5)||Jaguars||Chiefs||Jaguars||Jaguars|
|Cards @ Seahawks (-5.5)||Seahawks||Seahawks||Cards||Seahawks|
|Patriots @ Chargers (-3)||Chargers||Patriots||Chargers||Patriots|
|Raiders @ Broncos (-8)||Raiders||Raiders||Raiders||Broncos|
|Vikings @ Packers (-3)||Packers||Vikings||Vikings||Packers|
|Giants @ Cowboys (-3)||Giants||Giants||Cowboys||Cowboys|
|Prev Week||7-6-1 (.538)||8-5-1 (.615)||6-7-1 (.462)||4-9-1 (.308)|
|Overall||37-49-4 (.430)||44-42-4 (.512)||40-46-4 (.465)||33-53-4 (.384)|
* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.
Locks of the Week
Vegas Vinny: (1-5, Balance =$720). My crystal ball aka randomizer didn’t let me down last week. Unfortunately Ryan stole my lock so I had to settle for my second choice. That didn’t turn out well. This week, the randomizer told me to lock the Patriots-Chargers game. Well, the way I see it, if the Chargers can lose to the Rams and still be 3 point favorites at home, then clearly Vegas is telling us something about this game. You can basically stop reading now. $110 to win $100 on the Chargers (-3).
Oh, you’re still reading. Well, here’s some football analysis for you then: San Diego statistically have the best offense and defense in the league. They just simply make too many mistakes and I expect they’ve taken their last two opponents very lightly. (Oakland and St. Louis — you would too.) The Patriots are coming off a very big comeback win against a more highly regarded team in the Ravens. Having to travel across country where the Chargers are very comfortable (2-0 at home in blowouts) means a long day for Tom Brady and company. This will be a tight gave but 3 points is about right. I don’t expect the Chargers to blow the doors off the Patsies but they can win and the worse you can do is a push.
BostonMac: (2-4, Balance =$770) I’m back, baby! Granted, it was a pretty cheap win (KC’s four-point loss while getting five) but at this point, I’ll take whatever I can get. This week, though, I think I have a gem. With Vince Young’s status in doubt, it looks like Kerry Collins is going to get the start for the Titans. And since Kerry Collins being highly involved in any season plot lines is generally bad, I fully expect Jeff Fisher to ride the Chris Johnson train again this week against the Eagles and their 22nd ranked rush defense. Yes, RJ pointed out the “coming off the MNF game” factor, but can we really call the Titans-Jags game last week a game? It was more like a full body dry heave set to “Are You Ready for Some Football.” Johnson will carve up the Philly defense like Patrick Bateman in a blood-soaked poncho. I’ll put $110 to win $100 on TENNESSEE (-3) over the Eagles.
RJ: (3-2-1, Balance =$1090) Most of the time, the bye week gives a chance for teams to recover. It gives an extra week to heal, a chance for the coaches to assess their personnel and redevelop strategy. If you’re Chan Gailey and the Buffalo Bills, you wish the bye would last a good 12 weeks. Unfortunately for them, they get only one extra week to prepare for the Ravens. The Bills have absolutely nothing going well for them right now. The offense can score a few points but the defense is not adjusting to the 3-4. The Ravens don’t give up those kind of points and they should be pretty pissed after playing a tenative second half and letting the Patriots claw back into it and win it in overtime. Not much else to say about this game other than Baltimore’s offense should be able to score at will early and late. No problem for the Ravens (-13) to beat a turrible (Sir Charles approved sic) Bills team. 110 to win 100.
Burton: (1-5, Balance =$490). $330 to win $300 (yup, I’m raising the ante): – I’m just going to read a slightly modified version of this on air if its okay with you and this’ll double as my write-up.
Last week, I got burned on Tampa. I’ll admit it, so if I’m wagering this much money on the team that burned me last week, there’s a damn good reason. The Bucs were anemic in every aspect of that game. Even late on when they were moving the ball, the Saints red zone D shut them down. But there were things I didn’t account for. First, Tampa’s run defense. The Bucs entered last week ranked 30th in run defense, but I was willing to attribute that to the good running teams they had faced. Plus, without their top two backs, how could the Saints possibly put up a running game? Well, they did, rushing 32 times for 212 yards, turning the 3rd-and-longs that had plagued the Saints the past few weeks into much more manageable 3rd-and-shorts. Furthermore, it was a must-win game for New Orleans. The Saints had looked much more like the inconsistent 8-8 team from 2008 that lost five games by three points or less than the reigning Super Bowl champions. The Saints had something to prove, and prove it they did.
But St. Louis is no New Orleans. While the Rams do average 5 more YPG rushing than the Saints, they also average 5 more carries per game. The Rams are tied for 27th in YPC with the Bucs and Seahawks, ahead of the overhyped Ravens, fourth quarter Lions, and just now improving Broncos. Moreover, if they don’t get the running game going, which so far this year they haven’t, they’ll likely not have the pass to fall back on. Danny Amendola, their only true threat at WR, was a non-factor last week against a comparable secondary in San Diego. The Rams defense has shown glimmers, but they haven’t yet strung back-to-back good games together.
Tampa is in the same position as New Orleans was last week. If the Bucs want to show they’re a contender for a playoff berth in the underwhelming NFC, they MUST beat the NFC-west co-leaders at home. It won’t be a great win, but it’ll be the best on their resume so far. I could get burned again; last week may have been the collapse of Tampa everyone else other than myself has expected from the start. But I still think this is a team that can win 7 or 8 games. So put down $330 to win $300 on Tampa Bay (-2.5) and watch the Bucs keep pace with the powerful duo atop the NFC South.