This week is all about one game: the Colts at the Patriots. Everyone is hearing about it, but everyone knows it’s worth the hype. Both teams are coming off huge road wins last week, and the Manning vs. Brady rivalry is once again in play. This game, along with the Bengals and Ravens, should have a huge impact on the AFC. Who will win the game? Will the Broncos or chargers take the AFC West? Will either of last year’s conference champions even make the playoffs? Find out in this week’s 10 questions. Question 1: Colts or Patriots?
Last week the Colts edged the Broncos at Mile High; now they travel to Foxboro in another game that has Instant Classic potential. This game has been football’s biggest rivalry the past few seasons, and it was dominated by New England until Indy’s 40-21 blowout last year. I can guarantee one thing: this game will be much closer.
There is some shootout potential at work here, especially considering what both quarterbacks did last week. Tom Brady passed for 372 yards and 4 touchdowns; Peyton Manning had 345 and 3. This week, Manning will be at it again against the Patriots’ suspect secondary. However, Brady might have a more subdued role as the Colts have stuffed the passing game while getting blasted against the run this year. They’ve given up an NFL-worst 168 yards per game on the ground, so expect Laurence Maroney to have a huge game.
What will decide this game, as always, is Peyton Manning. If the Patriots can fluster him–which they’ve done many times in recent history–than New England should role. But with Manning’s outstanding game last week and the emergence of a stud receiver in Reggie Wayne, I see the Colts’ offense succeeding. And that means trouble for the Pats.
Colts 28, Patriots 24.
Question 2: What is at stake in this big game?
In a game as big as New England vs. Indy, there is one major thing at stake–home field advantage. If the Colts win, there will likely be playoff games at the RCA Dome. But if the Patriots win, that gives them the inside edge on this battle. We know from the 2004 and 2005 postseasons that no one can touch New England at Gilette Stadium in January. So this game could decide which team gets homefield–and therefore has an inside track to the Super Bowl.
If the Colts end up getting home-field, this could mean that this is finally their year. Manning seemed to be on a mission last week, though we all know what happens to him in the playoffs. It’s hard to predict this now, but I’ve almost got this feeling that he’ll do better in this year’s playoffs. Last year everything went Pittsburgh’s way in the Colts’ playoff loss, and I don’t know if they can lose at home again like that. Unless they show a weakness at the RCA Dome this season, you should expect better playoff performances by Indy this season.
Question 3: Are the Falcons the class of the NFC South?
I’ve doubted the Falcons in my Week 7 and 8 articles due mainly to their 27-14 home loss to the Giants. But since then, they’ve pulled through against two AFC North teams with two career-best offensive performances by Michael Vick. Now, I’m almost believer. I think Atlanta is the best team in a challenging division. The Panthers are too up-and-down, while the Saints have a tough road schedule the rest of the year. The Falcons face both of those teams again, and both of those games are at home. That, plus the factor of an actual passing game, should help the team to the divisional title. However, don’t pencil them in yet. Their defense has been shredded three straight weeks for a combined 92 points.
Question 4: Can the anyone challenge the Bears?
This question will be further pursued next week, when Chicago heads to Giants Stadium for an outstanding Sunday Night Football matchup. But for now, the Bears are by far the league’s best team. Last year, they beat all the easy teams, but not by much. This year, they’re blowing away the bottom-feeders except for that one strange game in the desert. They’ll be 8-0 after this week, when they take on the piteous Dolphins. But can they beat the best teams on the road? We’ll have to wait until next week. Right now, my call is that the Bears defense will shut down Eli Manning while their offense does just enough to win. Whatever happens, get ready for as much hype as the Colts-Pats game is getting this week. If the Giants don’t knock them off, then no other team can in the NFC.
Question 5: Will the Broncos or Chargers win the AFC West?
This is perhaps the most intriguing divisional battle as we head down the stretch. Both of these teams are 5-2, have top-10 defenses, and run the ball extremely well. They will face off in weeks 11 and 14, so the division will be basically up-for-grabs those two weeks.
I think San Diego should win the division. They are the more well-rounded team, while the Broncos rely too much on their defense. The Chargers’ only losses were by a field goal each and both were on the road. They have consistently blown teams out and each of their wins have been easy. The Broncos have engaged in multiple low-scoring slugfests, the type of games in which one key turnover could result in an upset. They will get upset eventually, and I’ve got a feeling that Jay Cutler will get some playing time this season.
Question 6: Which team(s) are for real in the AFC North?
The AFC North features some of the most inconsistent teams in football besides the Browns. And unfortunately for Cleveland, they’re just consistently bad. But the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers all have playoff talent, but none of them have shown it on a week-to-week basis. The Ravens looked unstoppable the first few weeks, but their offense has shown nothing and their excellent D isn’t enough to override it. Cincy’s offense looks great one week and pitiful the next, even though they have some of the best skill-position players in the league. I’d count the Steelers out because they are way back at 2-5 and have been a mess this year.
That leaves the Bengals and Ravens. I think both of these teams should make the playoffs, just due to their talent level. They play twice more this year, including this week at Baltimore in a game that isn’t getting enough attention. Watch for Cincy in an upset special.
Question 7: Can three teams from one division make the playoffs?
This could happen in multiple divisions in each conference. In the AFC, the West has a reasonable chance of having three teams in the playoffs. Denver and San Diego are all but locked in, and Kansas City has quietly given themselves a chance. At 4-3, they have a relatively easy schedule ahead of them, and everyone knows they’re hard to stop at Arrowhead. Just their home-field advantage alone could lead them to a 10-6 record, which might be enough for the playoffs. But don’t count on it.
In the NFC, the East and South both have the potential to feature both Wild Cards. But in the East, Dallas and Philadelphia are just too inconsistent to make the playoffs. One of them could, but I don’t think both of them will. And the same goes for the South. Those teams play each other so much that they will likely knock each other out.
Question 8: Will either of last year’s Super Bowl teams make the playoffs?
No. The curse is alive this year, especially for the Super Bowl-winning Steelers. While all you hear about is the Super Bowl-loser curse, a winner (the 2002 Bucs) fell to a losing record in recent history. It will happen again. At 2-5, the Steelers are virtually out of the playoffs in the tough AFC. And though the Seahawks have a winning record somehow, they have been cursed by injuries to their two key players–Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. While those players expect to return soon, I don’t think it will be enough. The Rams should win that division.
Question 9: What are the picks for this week?
Last week I got hammered in this department. Maybe I’ll come back this week. I’ve already given Indy over New England and Cincy over Baltimore. In the other games, there are a few interesting matchups. In a high-scoring battle, St. Louis will take Kansas City. The Rams play too well at home and the Chiefs play too bad on the road. Look for an upset as New Orleans travels to Tampa. Two teams (Cincy and Philly) have already been upset victims at Raymond James Stadium. Look for a third. Dallas will take the pitiful Redskins easily. Minnesota will have fun in a bounce-back week as they blow out the 49ers. Denver will also get back on track on the road in Pittsburgh. And in the Monday-nighter, I’m tempted to pick an upset, but the Seahawks should roll over Oakland.
Question 10: Who will make the playoffs?
Here are my playoff predictions with seeds. Their seeds from the week 7 article are in parenthesis.
NFC:
- Bears (1)
- Giants (NR)
- Rams (5)
- Falcons (NR)
- Saints (6)
- Eagles (3)
AFC:
- Colts (1)
- Patriots (2)
- Chargers (3)
- Ravens (NR)
- Broncos (5)
- Bengals (6)