So much for the dream of a perfect 11-0 playoff season – the Colts ruined all of that. Thanks a lot, Peyton! This week, we look at two great conference championship games, Steelers at Broncos, and Panthers at Seahawks.
You can listen to in depth analysis of this week’s picks as well as a discussion on our podcast or subscribe via this feed.
| Matchup | Vin | Teri | Ryan | Trevor |
| Steelers – Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Panthers – Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Panthers |
(Here are our original playoff picks before the first round.)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos | Sunday, Jan. 22. 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Ryan McGowan: There is neither rhyme nor reason to my picks this week. After watching the insanity that was the Steelers-Colts game last week, I agree with Vegas Vinny that in the playoffs, you can throw stats out the window. Who would have thought that the Steelers would be here, having beaten Cincinnati and Indianapolis on the road. I mentioned last week that eventually, the mental grind of the Steelers playing six must-win games in a row will catch up to them. Obviously, it didn’t happen last week, but I think it finally catches up to them in Denver, a city with real, loud, crazed football fans, as opposed to the usual indoors, fair-weather polite supporters of Indy.
Even though Denver didn’t play a great game against New England, that game showed us the importance of home-field advantage. I know that the home team hasn’t been as successful in the conference championship round as in the divisional round, but Denver is an exception. Invesco isn’t as loud as the old Mile High, but it is still a hostile place to play, and unless Ben Roethlisberger is able to beat Champ Bailey, Nate Ferguson, and the Denver secondary early and take the crowd out of it, I think Denver wins this one. The Steelers played a near-perfect game against the Colts, except for the Bettis fumble (which never should have been an issue had the referees not laid an egg on the Polamalu interception). I respect what the Steelers have done, but I don’t think they have enough left to play another near-perfect game in such a hostile environment. Denver over Pittsburgh
Teri Berg: I could see the Steelers winning this game, if only because of Ben Roethlisberger’s good karma. (Did Big Ben grow out his beard for the playoffs because he somehow knew he’d face off against the AFC’s other shaggy QB?) It’s the perfect timing for reversing the 1997 AFC Championship game in which Shanahan’s Broncos went to Three Rivers Stadium and tipped over Cowher’s Steelers 24-21. This time around, these teams couldn’t be more similar, even if you don’t count their QBs’ facial hair. Both teams work mostly on the ground (with more than one RB) — by which they excel at controlling the clock; both quarterbacks are good scramblers, but have limited receiver corps. And both have great defenses, especially against the run, with All-Pro safeties (Troy Polamalu and John Lynch) who crowd the box to make big plays.
That said, this will be Pittsburgh’s third straight high-stakes road game, and I’m not sure what they pulled off against the Colts last weekend they can match in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos’ No. 2 run defense allows an average of only 85 yards on the ground, and for more than half the season Fast Willie Parker and Fat Jerome Bettis have looked more stoppable than Denver’s backfield tag-team of Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. Big Ben will likely take to the air early, as he did in Indy — but this team is not yet equipt to lean solely on its passing game when the run sputters.
Denver got more than a little lucky with turnovers versus New England, especially the special teams fumbles, one of which led to the only Jake Plummer TD pass. Already it’s hard to remember that 26 minutes passed in that game before either team scored. We could see more of the same here. Given how fast and athletic Pittsburgh’s run stoppers are (No. 3 in the league), Anderson and Bell could have yet another lousy day (the pair combined for only 96 yards vs. the Pats). Thing is, Pittsburgh won’t be able to stop Plummer the way they rattled Peyton Manning — by flushing him out of the pocket and forcing him to make plays on the run. That’s the one thing Plummer excels at. Also, the Steelers, who’ve been fairly good all season with takeaways, won’t get lucky with them in the title game — Denver’s been the stingiest team in the league this season in terms of giveaways. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers pulled this out, but I’m leaning Denver’s way. Denver over Pittsburgh
Vin Diec: Denver certainly caught a break last week when Pittsburgh beat Indy. In the past couple of years, the Colts have been their playoff kryptonite. With Choker and company out of the playoffs, they get a home game for the championship tilt. In the podcast, I detailed my bias against Pittsburgh, but, objectively, I still think the Broncos will win this game. The biggest advantage in this game is the home field and being able to rest at home for the duration of the playoffs. Denver and Pittsburgh have comparable teams talent wise and if you played a 7 game series, it’d be a classic. But it’s one game to get to the dance and Pittsburgh has used up all their energy getting to the playoffs and through the first two rounds. The only concern I have for Denver is the passing game against a secondary (with help from the front line) that shut down Manning , Harrison and Wayne. Jake Plummer had a decent game against NE but they really need him and Ashley Lelie (5 rec, 50 yds, 0 TD) to step it up this week. Still, the running game and the 12th man should put Denver over the top. Denver over Pittsburgh
Trevor Freeman: The Steelers have had a nice run, but it ends in Denver. The Broncos might be the most overlooked 14-3 team in the history of football.
Denver’s win over New England was no fluke. The Broncos have a stout
defense to couple an offense with plenty of weapons. The game being in
Denver gives the Broncos a huge edge, as it is probably the second
noisiest stadium in the NFL behind Arrowhead. I think Pittsburgh will
fall behind early and never catch up.
The great thing about Denver winning will be that the “Mike Shanahan can’t
win in the playoffs without John Elway” tag will finally be put to bed.
Kudos to the former 49er offensive coordinator. Denver over Pittsburgh
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks | Sunday, Jan. 22. 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Ryan McGowan: Maybe I’m only picking Seattle because of the Massachusetts connections (Lofa Tatupu from Plainville, Matt Hasselbeck from Norfolk/BC, and Isaiah Kacyvenski from Harvard). Maybe I’m only picking them because I can’t stand Jake Delhomme and I think he is an ersatz Bobby Boucher redneck. Or maybe I’m picking them because they have the league MVP (with rested legs albeit coming off a concussion), the best QB in the NFC right now, a tough, opportunistic defense led by Tatupu (who is all over the place, inexplicably making plays all over the field), a coach who has won the Super Bowl, and the home field advantage. For anyone who hasn’t been following the Seattle weather lately, it has rained for 30+ days in a row. The Seahawks, by virtue of their top seed, have been there for pretty much the whole time. They are going to take their rage out on the traveling Panthers, who despite boasting the most unstoppable player in the playoffs in Steve Smith, will be on their third-string running back in Nick Goings. There might be worse third-string RBs in the league than Goings, but he won’t be able to control the ground game against the Seahawks defense, especially with Alexander returning on the other side and Hasselbeck playing perhaps the best football of his career. It would be wild to see a Pittsburgh-Carolina All-Wild Card Superbowl, but I think both home teams are heading out to the 313 in two weeks. Seattle over Carolina.
Teri Berg: Might just be my imagination, but nearly every time we’ve expected a big game out of a top RB this season, we’ve gotten bunk. LaDainian Thomlinson coughed up more than his share of hairballs this season, but the low point was 7 yards vs. Philly. In Indy’s first loss of the season, vs. San Diego, Edge James bottomed out with just 25 yards. After running like a man on fire through the second half of the season, Tiki Barber pooped out on wild-card weekend with only 41 yards. On a day Seattle slaughtered the Eagles 42-0, Shaun Alexander netted just 49 yards. After his weird concussion last week, don’t you just get the feeling our NFL MVP is going to crap out again? I’m trying to repress that hunch, and predict with some confidence that he’ll have a Julius Jones-like showing against a suspect Carolina defense. But you just never know.
The Cats’ run D is ranked as fourth in the league, but that’s hooey. Their sked vs. running teams was luckier than Kyle Orton for most of the season. For the first eight games, Carolina faced teams whose RBs were injured or AWOL (NE, TB) or teams who’d gone pass-wacky (GB, ARI, MIN) or teams that were just too dysfunctional to even have a running game (NO, DET). During that stretch, Miami’s Ronnie Brown burned them for 132 yards. In their last eight games, Cadillac Williams returned from injury for TB’s second meeting with Carolina to cruise for 112 yards. Thomas Jones and the Bears torched the Panthers for 127 yards, and even lame-o Atlanta netted 116 in CAR-ATL I. (Their rematch doesn’t count, since the Falcons had collectively stuck their heads in the oven by then.) The topper came when Dallas visited Charlotte, and Jones, who’d been a bust all season, suddenly busted the Cats for 194 yards. Carolina also lucked out in facing the already downed Jets, New Orleans for a second time, and a Bills team whose RB (McGahee) — faced with Mike Mularkey’s play-calling and a Swiss-cheese offensive line — had already thrown in the towel. Carolina has decent enough pass defenders, but its Run D doesn’t deserve a No. 4 ranking. I think the combo of LT Walter Jones, LG Steve Hutchinson and Alexander will wipe the lipstick right off that pig.
Yes, the Delhomme-Smith package has been terrific — Smith is an amazing playmaker, and Delhomme is smart enough not to take many chances with the ball (thus that suddenly revered postseason rating of 108). But from the looks of this season, especially last week, Matt Hasselbeck has become a bona fide leader for the ‘Hawks, and he’s got a passel of dependable receivers — anyone of whom could break the game wide open at any time. (Though prob’ly not as spectacularly as Smith has.) I’m not sure how Seattle’s defense will stop Smith, unless they back Lofa Tatupu off the run and double up with SS Michael Boulware in coverage. Whatever, Smith tends to get his. But Carolina’s running game has collapsed enough at this point (Foster out, Goings starting) that they no longer present a multiple threat on offense the way Seattle does. Given how banged up the Cats are, the strain that’s put on the offense, and that this will be their third straight road game — all the way to the rainy and depressing Pacific Northwest, I think Seattle takes it to ’em. Seattle over Carolina.
Vin Diec: Carolina will have logged about 4,500 miles during the playoff runs by the time they get to Seattle. Meanwhile, Seattle has been resting comfortably in their own homes. (Except Sean Locklear, who has been resting in the county jail.) As I said in the Denver matchup, home cookin’ is a huge advantage, last week’s games notwithstanding. But let’s take a look at the matchups.
Now that Seattle doesn’t have to worry about DeShaun Foster, they can focus on the only playmaker that Carolina has: Steve Smith. Ricky Proehl seems to make big plays in big time situations but as an every down receiver, you don’t really have to game plan for him. Proehl and Keary Colbert are averaging less than 2 catches per game. Carolina is the only one dimensional team left in the playoffs.
On offense, Seattle will get Shaun Alexander back. He’s not the league MVP for nothing. But now they know that they can win on the strength of Matt Hasselbeck’s arm. Mo Morris provides a change of pace and allows them to institute the screen pass in their offense. Meanwhile, Darrell Jackson (9 recs, 143 yds) looks like he’s completely back from his knee surgery. With Julius Peppers not at 100%, it’s going to be tough for Carolina to put the necessary pressure on Seattle’s tremendous OLine. The vegas line started at Carolina +5.5 points and has since moved to Carolina +4. If all the dumb money (dumb money comes out in the playoffs) is on Carolina, you need to take Seattle.
Trevor Freeman: I took Carolina to win the Bowl at the beginning of the year. I engaged in a ferocious argument with my radio comrades in mid-season when I argued that Carolina was still the best team in the NFC. I picked them at the beginning of the playoffs to win the NFC……………..and I’m sticking
to my guns.
The Panthers have the best quarterback left in the playoffs. Jake Delhomme who is arguably the second best big-game quarterback in the NFL behind Tom Brady has once again been lights out in the postseason (for the record, Delhomme is 5-1 with a 108 QB rating when the lights are on). I think his experience makes the difference in this game. Steve Smith should get loose. I think Nick Goings can handle the load. Julius Peppers plays and he plays well.
Carolina has been there before and they get back there again. 24-17
Panthers.