Peyton Manning has quarterbacked the NFL’s best offense for the past seven seasons. With a football culture that extremely overvalues quarterbacks, it has been Peyton Manning who has received the abundance of credit for the Indianapolis Colts offensive success. Manning’s ability to read defenses, call audibles at the line of scrimmage, and make big plays with his arm is not in dispute.
However, Manning seems to do it with an ease not seen before in the professional game. Is Manning that much smarter than every other quarterback in NFL history? Or, is there a key, external, variable that allows Manning’s star to shine above the rest?
Despite what is popularly heard in the media, the Indianapolis Colts offense revolves around the running of Edgerrin James. Peyton Manning’s greatness is directly tied to the greatness of Edgerrin James. What makes Peyton Manning so effective, both early and late in the game, is the ability to pass the ball by utilizing play action. You cannot successfully play action pass if defenses do not feel threatened by your running game.
That’s why the Colts have so much trouble with teams that play excellent run defense (Jaguars, Patriots). If the defense can stop the run without committing secondary help, then they are not as susceptible to play action pass. Their secondary is then free to cover more areas of the field, more quickly. They can blitz on occasion, and they are never caught out of position on play action passes.
All week we’ve seen replays of the Colts first offensive play of the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 12. Manning takes the snap, fakes a handoff to Edgerrin James, the safety and the cornerback bite on the play action, and Marvin Harrison gets behind the defense and catches a pass from Manning for an 80 yard touchdown. Watch any Colts game, and you’ll see big play after big play set up by play action. Without Edgerrin James, there is no effective play action, and defenses that can’t play the run without committing a safety have to pick their poison. Either leave one safety to cover the entire deep middle, or leave gaping holes for the running back. In other words, the offense revolves around Edgerrin James.
Manning’s stats bear witness to this. Discounting his rookie season, Peyton Manning has played for 7 seasons with James. In those 7 seasons, Manning’s worst interception totals were in the years that Edge was hurt. In 2001 Edge tore his ACL in the sixth game. Manning responded by having the highest interception total (23) in any year other than his rookie season. The next season, with Edge not at full strength, Manning had his second highest non-rookie interception total with 19. Edge’s stats that year were 14 games, 989 yards rushing, 3.6 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns.
Compare those numbers to when Edge is healthy. Edge’s statistical averages for his five healthy seasons are 1,515 yards, 4.3 yards per carry, and 12 touchdowns. Manning’s statistical averages in those seasons are 33 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. When Edge was out with injury, or playing himself into shape, Manning’s two season average is 26 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. That’s about one-fourth less touchdowns, and almost twice the interceptions with an ineffective or absent Edgerrin James.
More evidence of Edge’s impact on Manning shows in the three defining losses in Manning’s career. Edge was a non-factor in the loss to the Chargers this year, and in the two losses to the Patriots in the playoffs, where he totaled 142 yards on 46 carries. Manning’s totals in those games were 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. If you stop Edgerrin James with your front seven, you stop the Colts offense. Without a running threat, and hence, a play action threat, Peyton Manning is not very effective.
The Colts can win with a big game by Edge and non-effectiveness by Manning (see Jaguars game, week 2). But, the Colts cannot win if Edge is not effective, because if Edge isn’t effective, Manning isn’t effective.
I say all this to say that the only way the Steelers will win this weekend is if they commit only their front seven to stopping the run. Let Edgerrin James run wild, it’ll take him a lot longer to get to 80 yards than it’ll take Peyton Manning. The Steelers need to understand that a big day by Edge means you can still stay in the game. A big day by Manning means the Colts are resting their starters in the fourth quarter.
Often teams pick the wrong poison. They over-commit to stopping the run and get blown out with the pass. If they Colts are made to run for their points, then that lengthens their drives, thereby shortening the game. The fewer the possessions, the fewer the points, the better the chance a team has to beat an explosive offense.
Lastly, give me the Colts, the Broncos, the Bears, and the Seahawks. I’m going against the trend, and the averages, and taking the four home teams. The Steelers don’t have the mental flexibility to change their game plan in order to beat the Colts. The Broncos are simply the better team. They won’t score a ton of points against this Patriots team, but their defense won’t give up many, either. The Bears will defeat a Panther team they demolished earlier in the season. There are no adjustments the Panthers can make. As long as Grossman does not take too many needless risks, it will be another easy win. The Seahawks will beat the Redskins, but it will be another close game.
2 replies on “Is Manning The Key To The Colts Offense?”
Manning more valuable Manning makes James’s job easier than the average running back. Manning gets the team into a favorable play more times than not. When was the last time you saw James have to make somebody miss in the backfield? James is a good hard nose runner, but thanks to injuries he is by no means the physical specimen he was coming out of the U. Unlike Manning, he would not be able to elevate the play of one of the NFL’s sub par teams. In turn Indianapolis’ offense is built around Manning, not James. Just by looking at both players’ contract status, it is obvious that the Colts think they can find a replacement for James a lot easier than finding one for Manning. They are correct for assuming that. Also, there has never been quarterback who won without some kind of a running game. Though that does not mean the runner was more valuable than the quarterback (especially in passing offenses). As good as Roger Craig was, was he more valuable than Joe Montana? Is Rudi Johnson more valuable than Carson Palmer?
Really? Contrary to what’s popularly believed, the offensive coordinator still calls the plays for the Colts. Manning does a lot of audibling, but audibles are limited because you can’t switch personnel at the line of scrimmage. And, usually, the audible is from a run to a pass because there are 8 men in the box to STOP THE RUN.
8 men in the box makes it easier to pass. How does Manning make Edge’s job easier? Do teams choose to put only 6 or 5 in the box to thwart the pass?
You say Manning would be able to elevate the play of a subpar team? Where’s the proof of that? Manning didn’t elevate the play of the Colts when Edge was out after game 6 in 2001.
Now, as far as contract status, that really doesn’t mean much. You do know that Troy Aikman got paid more than Emmitt Smith for their whole careers. Smith even had to sit out to get a contract commemsurate to his value. Foolish front office decisions have nothing to do with actual value to a team.
Lastly, there were plenty of quarterbacks who won without strong running games. The 49’ers first SB team didn’t have close to a 1,000 yard rusher. Marino didn’t have 1,000 yard rushers. Neither did Elway until late in his career. Favre’s SB winning team had no 1,000 yard rusher. Brady had virtually no running game in 01, 03, and this year, and he’s won. However, Edge has avg. over 1,500 yards in Manning’s great years. In Manning’s not so great years, he had no Edge or an ineffective Edge.
We only have the current data to base this on. Speculation does no good. Without Edge, without play action, Manning averages 21 ints a year. It’s 12 with Edge. Could that be because teams are not respecting the run and are not vulnerable to play action?
Maybe it’s just a coincidence. Manning hopes he doesn’t have to find out next year! I remember last year when Marvin Harrison said they need to sign James because James is what makes the offense go. And, I haven’t even talked about James’ 50+ receptions per year. He gets as many positive touches (400+) as Manning does (400+ completions) every year.
Hey, I was surprised when I looked at the data too.