Why the NFL Draft Shouldn’t Be As Easy As 1-2-3

With the conclusion of the Rose Bowl and the crowning of a national champion for college football, the top selections for the upcoming NFL draft look to be getting clearer.  Players from USC and Texas (to mention the two top teams) have declared themselves eligible.  The Houston Texans have the #1 pick, with the New Orleans Saints and the Tennessee Titans follow up at #2 and #3.  But, will this order be the same?  Who will be chosen?  Why do I think that Reggie Bush will NOT be a Texan?First, we examine the #1 pick in the draft, belonging to the Houston Texans, a 2-14 team in 2005.  They won the “Reggie Bush sweepstakes” by finishing with the worst record.  Bush is believed to be the next coming of Barry Sanders and he has close to a 100% chance of landing on the team with the first pick.  However, the players on the current Texans roster pose a problem for drafting Bush, at least for the time being.

You see, the Texans already have a running back in Domanick Davis.  A good one.  Davis was signed to a big contract before the 2005 season started, essentially etching, in stone, that he would be a Texan for the next couple of years.  Drafting Bush would mean that Davis would either be sitting on the bench next year in Houston or scoring touchdowns in a different uniform.  

Davis, as I mentioned, is not that bad of a running back.  In 11 games in 2005, Davis gained 976 yards.  If he played the full season (16 games), one could make the argument that he could rush for, say, 1300 or 1400 yards.  Would you believe that he would be in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards if that happened?  Do you really need Bush if you have a guy like that?

OK, so the Texans might not need Bush.  What about a quarterback?  Vince Young (Texas) and Matt Leinart (USC) have declared their eligibility for the upcoming draft.  Will one of them be wearing a Texan uniform.  In my opinion, you better guess again.

The Texans have a young and experienced David Carr who has been run over by defensive lineman more times than roadkill have been run over by semis in his 4 years in the NFL.  One might declare that the Texans need a quarterback, not a running back, in the draft.  I say guess again.

Yes, Carr’s QB rating in his 4 years as a Texan is a mere 73.7.  However, he is maturing at a fine rate.  Over the past two years, Carr has averaged close to 3000 yards passing per season, has completed close to 60% of his passes in the past two years, AND has 5 more touchdowns than interceptions (30-25).  The Texans need to give Carr more time…after all, he is ONLY 26 years old and has just 4 years experience.

The problem in Houston is not Davis (or any running back for that matter) or Carr (or any other quarterback).  It is the offensive line.  And they have lived up to their name.  They are OFFENSIVE.  The Texans thought they hit paydirt when they got Tony Boselli from the Jaguars for the expansion draft.  He would be injured more than he would play in Houston and David Carr would go unprotected.

Carr was sacked 68 times in 2005.  That’s right…68.  In 60 career games, Carr has been sacked 208 times.  That’s over 3 times per game!  Once again, the offensive line is what needs to be fixed.

If I was the GM of the Texans, Saints, and Titans, this is what I would be hearing from commissioner Paul Tagliabue on draft day:

….

1. “With the first pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the HOUSTON TEXANS….have traded it to…”  Wait a minute!  No one?  They drafted nobody?  They missed out on Reggie Bush?  Oh yeah, they did…and they should.  Trade Bush to a running back-starved team.  Ask a team with two experienced offensive lineman about a trade.  Reggie Bush (or the #1 pick) for two offensive lineman and a pick (the higher the better).  Winning starts with your quarterback.  Protecting the quarterback should be the #1 priority in Houston.  If Carr could throw for over 2000 yards while being sacked 68 times, imagine how well he could do if he was sacked only, say 35 times.  Build a line that would protect Carr and open holes for Domanick Davis.
2. “With the 2nd pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints select Vince Young, quarterback, University of Texas.”  Young is exactly what the Saints need: a mobile quarterback who has a good arm as well.  He seems to possess certain qualities that current quarterback Aaron Brooks possesses, only on a larger scale.  Brooks was originally the Saints QB of the future.  However, his benching for the last month of the 2005 season showed me that the Saints are ready to move on without him.  The Saints will have a new coach next year, and wouldn’t you want Young as your quarterback if you were coming to a new team?  Now, think outside the box if you will: what happens if the Superdome isn’t ready for next season?  Will the Saints be playing home games in the Alamodome again?  A-ha!  If so, Young and the Saints would be playing home games IN TEXAS.  Talk about drawing in the crowds.  Ca-ching!
3. “With the 3rd pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans select Matt Leinart, quarterback, University of Southern California.”  Ahhh, the perfect fit.  Leinart’s offensive coordinator in Tennessee would be none other than Norm Chow, his offensive coordinator at USC.  Talk about the right match.  The Leinart/Chow combination (if given the right players to support Leinart) would quickly lead to brighter days ahead for the Titans.  Let’s face it, Steve McNair isn’t getting any younger and he has suffered concussion after concussion the past few years.  Go with a young quarterback who is familiar with some of the personnel.  In that case, Leinart is your guy.