With 25 games or so left in this NBA season the playoff picture is still a little bit distorted. There are some teams who could collapse (Cleveland in particular) and miss the playoffs, and there is still some hope for teams like Houston and New York…okay that was low, sorry Knicks fans. However, things we all know are that San Antonio and Detroit are most likely going to get back to the Finals. The last two NBA champions mirror each other so much and play the game so well respectively, that it would take a disastrous injury or death to keep them from their collision course. (Let’s hope neither of them happens) If you are like me though it is sometimes nice to see somebody else get a chance to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy. The only thing is…are there really some teams in the league that stand a legitimate chance of dethroning Detroit or San Antonio?Heck yes there are. If I were a gambling man though I would still put my money on those two, but there are some teams in each conference that could make this playoffs a little interesting. Let’s start in the East:
Miami Heat- A great center (the Diesel), talented guard (D-Wade), championship coach (Riley), crafty veterans (Walker, Payton), and some solid role players (Haslem, Posey, Mourning) might be enough for the Heat to knock off the Detroit Pistons. There is no way the Heat are going to get home-court advantage, which should have helped them last year, but if anybody in the East can challenge Detroit, it’s the guys in South Beach. Every time the Heat and Pistons lock up, the Heat have the two best players on the court. The only problem is the Pistons have the next best five. But there are some ways in which the Heat can beat the Pistons. The Heat are deeper on the bench with guys like Mourning, Payton, and Walker coming off the bench. Dwayne Wade proved that in a game a couple of weeks ago if he wants to take a shot, he is going to get it. He did score the last 17 for Miami on their way to a win, and lest we not forget about the Diesel. It seems like he sleep-walks through the regular season, and he is injury prone, but for some reason I think the freak might show up in the Eastern Conference finals. Anytime you have someone who is 7’2″ 350 lbs. and is motivated to prove he is the greatest of all time, you have a good chance against anybody.
Hmmm….that might be it in the East…okay, maybe Cleveland.
Cleveland Cavaliers- This is a bit of a stretch but Cleveland is the only other team I would say is elite in the East. I know I said they could collapse and not make the playoffs, but really I think LeBron can take this team to the second round. If Larry Hughes were around and available I would give them a chance to beat the Pistons. They have some nice pieces off the bench (Varejao, Marshall, Damon Jones, and Henderson) but not having your best defender and number two option on offense kills your chances. Still though they have a very talented frontcourt headlined by LeBron, a decent player in Drew Gooden, and perhaps the most underrated center in the league and the most fun name to say in the NBA, Zydrunas Ilgauskas. LeBron creates some problems for Detroit because he is bigger than Prince and is a hard match up for him. But Detroit plays the best help defense in the league and LeBron just does not have that 3-point threat outlet that can make a collapsing defense pay. (Damon Jones is not shooting that well, .358 from three) On the bright side though Cleveland is finally going to make the playoffs and ten or so more games to watch LeBron play is always nice.
In the west…
Dallas Mavericks- There is D in Dallas thanks to Avery Johnson. He has led them to the best record out West, and home-court advantage could play a big part in trying to get by the Spurs. A run and gun team a couple of years ago has turned into a really well balanced team presently. The Mavericks live and die by how well Dirk Nowitzki plays, and he has been pretty solid all year long. They have a two-headed monster at center with Dampier and Diop who do a great job at anchoring the defense and not allowing easy lay-ups and dunks which have been a nightmare for Dallas in their recent playoff ventures. Dallas is also very deep on the bench. Anytime someone like Jerry Stackhouse, Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, and Eric Dampier can come off and give you good minutes, something is going right. Marquis Daniels and Josh Howard are a great tandem who play good both ways. They fly under the radar in most games but make a big impact. But perhaps the key to their success is Jason Terry. He has filled in for Steve Nash pretty well. He isn’t the same playmaker that Nash is, but he brings solid defense, a dead-on shot to compliment Dirk’s, and plays the two-man game well also. Dallas has a legit shot to not only beat the Spurs, but win it all.
Phoenix Suns- The big question is whether or not Amare Stoudamire is going to help or hurt the Suns if he comes back. Obviously anytime you can add someone like Amare to your team you increase your chances of winning by a lot. But what kind of shape is he going to be in by May? Can he be the Amare that sprung for 40 a game against TD and the Spurs in the Conference Finals? Or will he just scrap the season and the Suns try and out-run everybody and see where it goes. It seems like the Suns have an advantage being the two seed this year. Dallas and San Antonio will be the 1 and 4 seeds, and have to face off in the second round. The crystal ball shows that Phoenix will likely play New Orleans in the first round, and then either Denver or Memphis in the second. They could stand a chance to face a worn out opponent in the Conference Finals because Dallas and San Antonio has seven games written all over it. The Suns have two all-star players in Nash and Marion overachieving this year and with less help than last year. But great performances from guys like Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Kurt Thomas have been key for Phoenix. The bench is suspect though, but if Amare comes back, a guy like Boris Diaw will have played some good minutes and could come up big if called upon in the playoffs. Shawn Marion could make a case for being an MVP candidate along with Steve Nash. He has stepped up his game big time this year and leads the team in points, rebounds, steals, and blocked shots. I don’t buy the idea that Amare would hurt this team though, if he shows up this season I think he can only help them. They have a good a chance as anybody to beat the Spurs.
The Clippers and Nuggets really don’t blow my skirt up, and the Grizzlies, Hornets, and Lakers simply don’t have the teams to do it. I will make one last comment before this story ends. Watch out for the Rockets. They could sneak in the playoffs, and if you make any money off of them I want ten percent. T-Mac and Yao could make a run here; they are both healthy and could be a scary match up for somebody. There only three games out of the last playoff spot. I’ll be waiting in May to tell you I told you so.