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2010 NFL Week 11 Picks and Podcast

The Playoff race isn’t exactly heating up yet but the pilot light is on. This is the week where pretenders start falling by the wayside. Lose your 5th or 6th game this week and you’re almost out of the playoffs. Unless you’re in the NFC West where 6-10 could win it.

The featured games this week are Packers at Vikings, Bills at Bengals (small market love), Colts at Patriots, and Giants at Eagles.

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NFL Week 11 2010 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Bears @ Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Bears Bears
Lions @ Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Lions
Texans @ Jets Jets Jets Jets Texans
Ravens @ Panthers Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Raiders @ Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Packers @ Vikings Vikings Packers Packers Vikings
Bills @ Bengals Bills Bills Bills Bengals
Browns @ Jaguars Jaguars Browns Jaguars Browns
Redskins @ Titans Titans Titans Titans Titans
Cards @ Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Seahawks @ Saints Saints Saints Saints Saints
Bucs @ Niners Niners Niners Niners Niners
Falcons @ Rams Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Colts @ Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Giants @ Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Broncos @ Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
Prev Week 6-8 (.429) 6-8 (.429) 7-7 (.500) 8-6 (.571)
Overall 81-63 (.563) 80-64 (.556) 80-64 (.556) 82-62 (.569)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Bears @ Dolphins (-1) Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Bears Bears
Lions @ Cowboys (-6.5) Lions Cowboys Cowboys Lions
Texans @ Jets (-7) Texans Jets Texans Texans
Ravens @ Panthers (+10) Ravens Panthers Ravens Ravens
Raiders @ Steelers (-7) Steelers Steelers Raiders Raiders
Packers @ Vikings (+3.5) Vikings Vikings Packers Vikings
Bills @ Bengals (-5.5) Bills Bills Bills Bengals
Browns @ Jaguars (-1.5) Browns Browns Jaguars Browns
Redskins @ Titans (-7) Titans Titans Redskins Titans
Cards @ Chiefs (-8) Chiefs Chiefs Cards Chiefs
Seahawks @ Saints (-12) Seahawks Saints Seahawks Seahawks
Bucs @ Niners (-3) Niners Bucs Niners Niners
Falcons @ Rams (+3.5) Falcons Falcons Falcons Rams
Colts @ Patriots (-3.5) Patriots Patriots Colts Patriots
Giants @ Eagles (-3) Eagles Eagles Eagles Giants
Broncos @ Chargers (-10) Chargers Chargers Broncos Broncos
Prev Week 7-7 (.500) 9-5 (.643) 7-7 (.500) 9-5 (.643)
Overall 65-74-5 (.468) 75-64-5 (.540) 64-75-5 (.460) 60-79-5 (.432)

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (4-6, Balance =$1020). I’m on a hot streak and I’ll do what I said I wouldn’t do: bet on the Niners. With no games jumping out at me this week, the Niners seem like a good a bet as any. While they were written off for dead a few weeks ago, the Niners, by virtue or being in the worst division in football, still have a chance to win the division.

The Niners are only 3-6 but all three wins have been at home. The Bucs, meanwhile are a “surprising” 6-3 but they have yet to beat anyone worth a damn. In fact, the combined records of their vanquished foes is 14-31. And that includes Carolina twice. The Bucs are a fraud and they know it. Going on the road against a surging (ok surging might be a stretch) SF team and you have a recipe for a nice payday. The Niners will be able to move the ball against the Bucs defense and if the don’t have any red zone problems, I can see them winning this easily. I’ll put $110 to win $100 on the Niners (-3).

BostonMac: (3-7, Balance =$495) It gets worse and worse for me every week. There was no “dead cat bounce” for my locks last week as the Titans went down in flames in Miami. Well you know what? Screw the Titans, one of my favorite lock picks. Screw the Packers. Screw the Patriots and the Vikings and every other crappy team I’ve picked this year as a lock. Like Costanza, let’s do everything the opposite this week. Denver is playing at San Diego on Monday night. I never take divisional rivalry games as locks. I hate San Diego and I think they have less balls than John Kruk. The Chargers are giving double-digit points. The Broncos are coming off a huge win against the Chiefs. Screw it, let’s put $55 to win $50 on a streaking SAN DIEGO (-10) team marching inexorably toward another awesome January flameout.

RJ: (5-2-1, Balance =$1185) Sometimes in the NFL, there are stories that might just be too good to be true. If you’re an avowed Favre Hater (can this get tax-exempt status as a religion?), this week just might be your Mecca. The Vikings are beyond desperate to make a playoff push and this game against Green Bay could be the nail in the coffin. Green Bay is playing well and coming off a bye, where Mike McCarthy is a young Andy Reid in already being 4-0 ATS. Also, the Packers are 24-12 ATS under McCarthy. The only think the Vikings did well against the Packers was run with Adrian Peterson, but without Randy Moss, the Vikings pass game just might be null and void, allowing Green Bay to concentrate on shutting down the run. The line is low enough for the Packers (-3) to handle the Vikings. 55/50

Burton: (4-5, Balance =$515). I really don’t agree with almost any pick the Peso made this week, which makes this brutally hard. So I’m going to lock in AGAINST a Peso pick and AGAINST my rule that I never lock Atlanta.

Much has been said of the grand improvement of the Rams from the last few years to this year; they are suddenly a competitive, competent team. Defensively, they’ve conceded the 6th-least points in the NFL, and more than a quarter of the 164 scored against the Rams came in their collapse in Detroit. But if you look closer, their defense really isn’t as good as that stat would say. They give up 4.2ypc and 7.0ypa, both slightly below par numbers. They’ve only forced 15 turnovers, just three off the worst mark in the NFC. Moreover, in their only game against a team with a playmaking RB and WR, Detroit, they were thoroughly handled. Atlanta has that and more, and could be the most dangerous offense outside of Philadelphia.

The Falcons have lost five straight in St. Louis and are 2-7 in the Gateway City since the Rams moved there after the 1994 season. They also went 1-3 against the Cardinals in St. Louis (more remarkable since the Cards came to Atlanta eight times and the Falcons only went there on four occasions). However, of those three wins, two game in the two greatest seasons in Atlanta history, including the most recent win: 1982 and 1998. Great Falcons teams can make the trip. This is the best team in Falcons history, better than the 1998 side that won the NFC title. They’ll beat the Rams and beat them good and move one step closer to the impending NFC title game with Mike Vick and the Eagles.

Ain’t it funny how our four hosts root for the four best teams in football? I’m in it to win it. $330 to win $300 on Atlanta (-3.5).

4 replies on “2010 NFL Week 11 Picks and Podcast”

Might have been the most boring picks ever. In 10 games we all agreed and in four the lone dissenter was the random peso. At least ATS we had some slight differences.

Top five coaches who deserved to be fired post-game

1. Bradd Childress — DONE
2. Marvin Lewis
3. Jeff Fisher
4. Mike Singletary
5. whoever is the Texans Defensive coordinator

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