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2010 NFL Week 5 Picks and Podcast

Ok so week 4 wasn’t so great but we held our own against the ESPN crew and they only pick straight up. Ryan’s 9-5 against the spread last week was one of the best around the interwebs. This week’s lineup of games is really weak. Out of 14 games, there are maybe 3 worth really paying attention to. Nevertheless, we’ve got insight into every game, crappy or not. (The games that is, not the insight.)

The featured games this week are KC @ Indy, NY Giants @ Houston, Tennessee @ Dallas, and Minnesota @ NY Jets. We also discuss the MLB playoffs.

This week’s NFL betting odds are from Betus.

You can download the podcast directly (running time 90 mins) or subscribe to the feed.

If you use iTunes, just click here and then click subscribe and iTunes will take care of the rest.

NFL Week 5 2010 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Jaguars @ Bills Bills Bills Bills Bills Jaguars
Chiefs @ Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts
Bucs @ Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals Bucs
Falcons @ Browns Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Bears @ Panthers Panthers Bears Bears Panthers Bears
Giants @ Texans Texans Texans Texans Texans Giants
Broncos @ Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Packers @ Redskins Packers Packers Packers Packers Redskins
Rams @ Lions Rams Rams Lions Lions Lions
Saints @ Cards Saints Saints Saints Saints Cards
Titans @ Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Titans Titans
Chargers @ Raiders Chargers Chargers Chargers Raiders Raiders
Eagles @ Niners Niners Niners Eagles Eagles Eagles
Vikings @ Jets Jets Vikings Jets Jets Jets
Prev Week 7-7 (.500) 7-7 (.500) 7-7 (.500) 8-6 (.571)
Overall 36-26 (.581) 37-25 (.597) 32-30 (.516) 36-26 (.581)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Jaguars @ Bills (PK) Bills Bills Bills Bills Jaguars
Chiefs @ Colts (-7.5) Chiefs Chiefs Colts Chiefs Colts
Bucs @ Bengals (-6.5) Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals Bucs
Falcons @ Browns (+3) Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Bears @ Panthers (+2.5) Panthers Bears Bears Panthers Bears
Giants @ Texans (-3) Texans Texans Texans Giants Giants
Broncos @ Ravens (-7) Ravens Ravens Broncos Ravens Ravens
Packers @ Redskins (+2.5) Packers Packers Packers Packers Redskins
Rams @ Lions (-3) Rams Rams Lions Lions Lions
Saints @ Cards (+7) Saints Saints Cards Saints Cards
Titans @ Cowboys (-6.5) Cowboys Titans Titans Titans Titans
Chargers @ Raiders (+6) Chargers Raiders Chargers Raiders Raiders
Eagles @ Niners (-3) Niners Niners Eagles Eagles Eagles
Vikings @ Jets (-3.5) Jets Vikings Jets Vikings Jets
Prev Week 5-9 (.357) 9-5 (.643) 4-10 (.286) 4-10 (.286)
Overall 27-32-3 (.458) 31-28-3 (.525) 26-33-3 (.441) 22-37-3 (.373)

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (0-4, Balance =$725). After my first four weeks, I shouldn’t even be allowed to pick a lock of the week anymore. So I just plugged a little =RAND() into my spreadsheet (yes, I’m a dork) and it told me my lock of the week was the Baltimore Ravens over the Denver Broncos. Fortunately for me, I really like this game.

The Ravens are one of the top teams in the NFL while the Broncos are a one trick (ahem) pony. They have the best passing stats in the league but the worst running game. While the Ravens secondary will certainly never be mistaken for the strength of the defense, they have played relatively well. Without a running game to help take pressure off the pass (as an Eagles fan, I’ve seen this much too often in the past decade), it’ll be easy for the Ravens to give more help to the secondary and take away the deep ball from Orton. We’ll see if Orton can handle the pressure from the Ravens front 7, especially from their outside linebackers. This might be the week the Ravens secondary gets its first interception of the season. I’ll put $55 on the Ravens (-7) to win $50.

BostonMac: (1-4, Balance =$830) Vegas thinks that the Redskins are a trap game for Green Bay, with Miami and Minnesota looming in the next two weeks– hence the small 2.5 point spread. I don’t think it matters at all. The Skins went all out last week in toppling the Eagles, and frankly didn’t look all that impressive doing it. The Packers are the class of the NFL and their offense is playing at another level right now. I see them wiping the floor with Washington like the aliens in “Independence Day.” After two straight weeks of making the mistake of going with my team in a lock (both for and against), I’m given a Patriots bye this week to soothe any temptations I might have to overreact. And I’m down cash too, so I’m going to double up and put $110 to win $100 on GREEN BAY (-2.5).

RJ: (2-1-1, Balance =$1095) This might be the strangest week of the entire NFL season because there’s only one division game on the entire slate, so no emotional rivalries to piggy back on (thank you, Browns for saving me a little face last week). Norv Turner and the Chargers don’t do emotion (for better and for worse) and the Chargers have beaten the Raiders 13 straight. So count that out.

The best emotional game might be the Monday night game between the Vikings and Jets. I think the Jets are playing better than anybody in the league right now. Rexy is Sexy again, LDT (There’s only one LT–I’m with Sports Guy on this one) is running 2006 style, Sanchez has been a virtuouso rather than just being asked to keep the beat and, as always, the defense has been there. Sure, the Fading Favre has a new toy in an old uniform in Fading Further Randy Moss, but last I saw Moss he was dropping the only pass thrown his way. It is interesting however, because the last we saw Darrell Revis, he was limping off the field with a pulled hamstring after being burned by—Randy Moss. Actually, it might have been better for the Jets because Antonio Cromartie clamped down on Moss in the second half of that game to help the Jets win; so I expect the Jets’ coaches to remember this strategy. Also, Favre has to be excited to return to New York, but this isn’t quite returning-to-Green Bay excited. He only played a year with New York (and his beef was with Eric Mangini, whom Favre took care of last year when he destroyed the Browns).

My record in picking Monday Night games is turrible (Chuck Barkley approved sic). Rumor has it that I’m pretty bad on the other days they play football too, but MNF is especially torturous to me. Last week’s Patriots-Dolphins game summed it up perfectly. Miami actually was staying with the Pats, but a complete and utter special teams meltdown and a few awful Chad Henne picks ruined their chances. But despite all the bad over the years, my locks have been pretty solid so far THIS year, so maybe they’ll cancel each other out, right?

So back to the Vikings-Jets. The line is a little low here due to the belief that the Vikings are back on track coming off their bye. Also, Brad Childress is a little Andy Reid-esque in being 4-0 ATS after the week off. However, that’s not a trend to get too excited about and in an unfamiliar non-conference matchup like this, I’ll simply take the better team. So I like the JETS (-3.5) to be a little better at home on MNF than they were last time. $55 to win 50.

Burton: (1-3, Balance =$600) $55 on Detroit (-3) to win $50.

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