It’s football season! Every season, I give the excuse that week 1 is the hardest week to pick. But looking at the results from last season might give us some insight into what will happen this week. Opening day 2009 gave us only 3 underdogs winning outright and they were all away: Jets @ Texans, Niners @ Cards, and Broncos @ Bengals.

As far as against the spread goes, it was an even split between underdogs and favorites. But 7 of those underdog winners were away. Vegas tends to lean towards the home team a little so the trick here is to find those dogs.

The featured games this week are Cincinnati @ New England, Indianapolis @ Houston, Dallas @ Washington, and Baltimore @ NY Jets.

You can download the podcast directly (running time 90 mins) or subscribe to the feed.

If you use iTunes, just click here and then click subscribe and iTunes will take care of the rest.

NFL Week 1 2010 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP	Vegas Vinny	BostonMac	RJ	Peso*	Actual
Vikings @ Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Falcons @ Steelers	Falcons	Falcons	Steelers	Falcons	Steelers
Raiders @ Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Raiders	Titans
Dolphins @ Bills	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Bengals @ Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Bengals	Patriots	Patriots
Lions @ Bears	Bears	Bears	Lions	Bears	Bears
Panthers @ Giants	Giants	Giants	Panthers	Giants	Giants
Colts @ Texans	Colts	Texans	Colts	Colts	Texans
Broncos @ Jaguars	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Jaguars	Jaguars
Browns @ Bucs	Bucs	Bucs	Browns	Bucs	Bucs
Packers @ Eagles	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers
Cards @ Rams	Rams	Rams	Cards	Cards	Cards
Niners @ Seahawks	Niners	Niners	Niners	Niners	Seahawks
Cowboys @ Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Redskins	Redskins
Ravens @ Jets	Ravens	Ravens	Jets	Jets	Ravens
Chargers @ Chiefs	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chiefs	Chiefs
Prev Week	—	—	—	—
Overall	—	—	—	—

Against the Spread

MATCHUP	Vegas Vinny	BostonMac	RJ	Peso*	Actual
Vikings @ Saints (-5.5)	Saints	Saints	Vikings	Vikings	Saints
Falcons @ Steelers (+2)	Falcons	Falcons	Steelers	Falcons	Steelers
Raiders @ Titans (-6.5)	Titans	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Titans
Dolphins @ Bills (+3)	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Bengals @ Patriots (-4.5)	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Patriots	Patriots
Lions @ Bears (-6.5)	Lions	Bears	Lions	Bears	Lions
Panthers @ Giants (-6.5)	Giants	Giants	Panthers	Giants	Giants
Colts @ Texans (+2.5)	Colts	Texans	Colts	Colts	Texans
Broncos @ Jaguars (-2.5)	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Jaguars
Browns @ Bucs (-3)	Browns	Bucs	Browns	Bucs	PUSH
Packers @ Eagles (+3)	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers
Cards @ Rams (+4)	Rams	Rams	Cards	Cards	PUSH
Niners @ Seahawks (+2.5)	Niners	Niners	Niners	Niners	Seahawks
Cowboys @ Redskins (+3.5)	Redskins	Cowboys	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Ravens @ Jets (-2.5)	Ravens	Ravens	Jets	Jets	Ravens
Chargers @ Chiefs (+4.5)	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chiefs	Chiefs
Prev Week	—	—	—	—
Overall	—	—	—	—

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) You know that adage that if it’s too good to be true, it probably is? Well, it probably applies in this case but I’m going to bet it anyway. When I scanned the lines this week, I was shocked to see the Niners were only 2.5 point favorites against the Seahawks this week. The Niners are going to win the NFC West (even if it’s only by default) and the Seahawks would consider a .500 record a success this year. The only reason why I think the Seahawks aren’t at least 7 point dogs is that in their last meeting at Qwest Field, Seattle beat SF on a last minute Olindo Mare field goal. But that was less of a result of the Seahawks playing well than the Niners making mistake after mistake. I don’t think that’s going to happen on opening day.

From a pure football perspective, Frank Gore has two 200-yard games against the Seahawks and has broken some long runs against the Seahawks. Unlike most people, I’m not completely down on the Seahawks defense but I do think Gore will have a big game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Seahawks offensive line is a mess. You know things aren’t good when your line coach quits a week before the season. With their inability to protect the quarterback and Niners Justin Smith and Patrick Willis wreaking havoc, Matt Hasselbeck is going to have an extremely long day.

I’ll put $110 to win $100 on the Niners (-2.5).

BostonMac: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) Denver over Jacksolville.. No one is going to see this game other than the lucky 10,000 fans who will flock to EverBank Field to see this thriller. The play in Week 1 is to go for road ‘dogs, and I love Denver getting the points. RJ thinks the Jags will be lucky to win one game this season. I think they’ll win more, but not this week. $55 to win $50 on DENVER (+2.5).

RJ: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) Last season in St. Louis, the Cards were giving the one-win Rams 8.5 points and were well on their way to putting up a ridiculous amount of points. Kurt Warner seemed to be gunning for Norm Van Brocklin’s record 554 passing yards by halftime. Then a funny thing happened. Not Warner getting hurt, which was unfortunate. It was the comedy of Matt Leinart coming in to completely turn the momentum towards the worst team in the league. Needless, to say, the Cardinals missed the cover, fantasy owners of Fitzgerald, Boldin and co. suffered critical losses and Matt Leinart proved right then and there that he would never be a competent NFL quarterback. The Cardinals scared a lot of their supporters by keeping Leinart until the end of training camp and even scaring some into believing he was the starter. Derek Anderson stepped in and saved the day. He won the job, which in turn made Leinart expendable, never to darken an Arizona offense again.

So it’s interesting that the line is only four points this time around. Vegas is obviously down on the Cardinals (they can’t be up on the Rams, right?) I believe the Rams are showing a little moxie with rookie Sam Bradford, who is bound for great things if he can stay healthy, But I can’t trust a rookie to do enough positives or even avoid enough mistakes to stun the defending division champs in his first start. I think Arizona is not getting enough respect. They may not deserve it in the long run, but the the Cardinals (-4) are at least a TD better than a perpetually rebuilding franchise. 55 to win 50.

Burton: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) For a divisional game, this is a rare occurrence. The Dolphins haven’t played a September game in Buffalo since 1993, and the last four seasons their game in Ralph Wilson Stadium came after Thanksgiving, going 1-3. In fact, since 2000, eight of the ten matchups at Ralph Wilson Stadium came after Thanksgiving. So if you don’t remember the last time this game did not take place in snow, you’re probably not alone.

The Dolphins’ season comes down to what kind of quarterback Chad Henne becomes. He has the tools to be a top-ten NFL quarterback, but questions about his development have left many in South Florida wary. But Miami still has an established running game with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, and the addition of Brandon Marshall give them their best threat at WR since Mark Duper and Mark Clayton in the 1980s.

The Bills have an explosive rookie running back in C.J. Spiller, but there is no way he can carry the entire load. Their OL is the worst in the division and one of the most underwhelming in the entire league, and nothing about their preseason makes me think any of their litany of sub-par quarterbacks can shoulder the load. Their defensive line had trouble stopping north-south HBs, and the Dolphins can and will take advantage of that. Add in that the only Bills head coach to win his first game was Marv Levy (everyone else is a combined 0-16), and this has blowout written all over it. The Bills just won’t be able to stop the Dolphins, even if Henne doesn’t play well.

Miami 37, Buffalo 7, bet $220 to win $200.