2009 AFC Preview – The Once and Future King

By Ryan McGowan

Consider this my August article.  To paraphrase Jimmy Buffett, it must be August 31 somewhere.

My colleague Trevor Freeman broke down the NFC this past weekend and mentioned how baseball has become “unwatchable” for him.  Alas, unlike this sad soul, I am still watching the Sox on a nightly basis, and I generally hate watching preseason football, so it usually takes me a little while to mentally adjust to football.  Watching preseason football, to me, has always seemed like watching someone else play blackjack—sure it can be entertaining, and you can make comments about the play, but it’s no fun unless it’s real.

And with the Sox continually playing deep into October, hell the NFL season is often half over before I can turn my attention completely to the three-time champs in Foxborough.   Still, that can’t stop me from doing my preseason AFC power rankings.  Unlike Trevor, however, I’m going to go with a veteran move and count DOWN in my rankings to the #1 team.  (Come on, Trevor—if you name the top teams right away, people will stop reading your column halfway in!  Amateur hour.)

16. Oakland Raiders – LAST YEAR: 5-11.  PREDICTION: 4-12, 4th AFC WEST

SI had a great article about the Raiders and how the culture of dysfunction and rebelliousness that Al Davis promotes is awesome when you’re winning championships.  But when was the last time the Raiders were even relevant, let along winning championships?  When children who were born at your last moment of relevancy are entering third grade this fall, something has to go.  Septuagenarian Jeff Garcia might win the starting job over JaMarcus Russell, which will result in Russell’s growth stagnating and Garcia’s body further deteriorating.  Tom Cable punches out his assistant coach on the field, Davis bypasses Michael Crabtree in favor of Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Darren McFadden’s window of greatness gets smaller and smaller.  Chaos ensues.  Welcome to the sitcom that is the Oakland Raiders.

15.  Kansas City Chiefs – LAST YEAR: 2-14.  PREDICTION: 5-11, 3rd AFC WEST

The Chiefs won’t be as bad as last year… they’re going to do a better job of playing TO WIN THE GAME.  Before Matt Cassell’s injury which will keep him out a few weeks, the fans were ready to lynch him—which is exactly where Patriots fans were a year ago before his breakout season.  Todd Haley has his work cut out for him, and Cassell has no weapons around him, with Dwayne Bowe the #1 receiver and Tony Gonzalez gone to the Dirty South.  This awful division, though, might allow Larry Johnson and Cassell to win a few games here and there and threaten to climb out of the cellar.

14. Denver Broncos – LAST YEAR: 8-8.  PREDICTION: 5-11, 2nd AFC WEST

How sorry is this division that the bottom three teams in the conference are all in the same division?  It’s like the Bizarro American League East.  The Broncos have Kyle Orton and Chris Simms competing for the starting QB job, appear to be parting ways with the childish and selfish Brandon Marshall, and lost Dre Bly as well as leading tackler Jamie Winborn from a team which choked its way out of the playoffs.  The only bright spot is potentially Knowshon Moreno, who clearly would not be on the Broncos if Josh McDaniels had not taken over for running-back-by-committee and fantasy-killer Mike Shanahan.  I’ll give the Broncos the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, though, saving them from the 15 spot.

13. Cleveland Browns – LAST YEAR: 4-12.  PREDICTION: 6-10, 4th AFC NORTH.

I will never understand why Randy Lerner was basically creaming himself to bring in Eric Mangini as soon as Tubby was relieved of his duties by the Jets last season.  Mangini is a douche, and Brady Quinn is the only thing keeping Cleveland from another 4-12 season.  However, in the tough AFC North, they aren’t sniffing the playoffs anytime soon.  But I guarantee Mangini is sniffing another plate of steak tips, probably as we speak.

12. New York Jets – LAST YEAR: 7-9.  PREDICTION: 6-10, 4th AFC EAST

Ahh, brettfavre, we hardly knew ye.  Let it be known that the number of franchises that Favre has taken down now stands at four in the past 3 years—the Jets, Packers, Vikings, and Patriots.  (You’re telling me the perfect season would have been ruined in Super Bowl XLII if brettfavre hadn’t choked away the NFC title game to the Giants?)  Rex Ryan brings attitude and an overall assholish demeanor to the Jets defense, but Dirty Sanchez and the offense won’t score enough to reach .500 in the East.

11. Cincinnati Bengals – LAST YEAR: 4-11-1.  PREDICTION: 7-9, 3rd AFC NORTH

This has to be the do-or-die year for Marvin Lewis, doesn’t it?  We’ve been saying that for the past four years, though.  The Bengals’ fortunes will depend on Carson Palmer staying healthy and adjusting to the loss of TJ Houshman… Houshman… well, Not-gonna-work-here-anymore, anyway!  I love Ray Mauluga in the middle; he might be worth a 2 ½ game upgrade by himself.  But has any team that was featured on “Hard Knocks” ever done well?  Isn’t there some inherent drama and dysfunction that’s necessary for HBO even to think about coming to your camp?

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – LAST YEAR: 5-11.  PREDICTION: 7-9, 4th AFC SOUTH.

Even if Marvin Lewis has naked photos of someone in Cincy, this HAS to be a make-or-break year for his colleague Jack Del Rio.  The Jags should rebound a bit this year after having lost a good deal of talent last year to injuries, and Maurice Jones-Drew should be the lone featured back with the departure of oft-injured Fred Taylor to New England.  But is Jones-Drew the kind of featured back that can carry a team?  Remains to be seen.  Think Bill Cowher or Mike Shanahan will want this job in ’11?

9. Buffalo Bills – LAST YEAR: 7-9.  PREDICTION: 8-8, 3rd AFC EAST.

When I drove to Toronto last month, I listened to Buffalo sports radio for a while on the New York State Thruway and I realized one thing: they are CRAZY about the Bills in Western New York.  What the hell else is there to do there except cow-tipping, pig-wrassling, and trying to roofie up some college girls at St. Bonaventure or Canisius?  I felt pity for Buffalonians similar to that which you feel for the Tutsi refugees in Hotel Rwanda— Dick Jauron is a hell of a nice guy and a native Masshole (Swampscott represent, North Shore bitches) but it’s just a matter of time before the T.O. Show sidetracks Trent Edwards, the entire offense, the coaching staff, and perhaps causes Niagara Falls to flow back toward Lake Erie.  The Bills haven’t beaten the Patriots since Opening Weekend 2003, and unless they can knock off New England, they don’t have a prayer of returning to the upper echelon of the conference.

8. Houston Texans – LAST YEAR: 8-8.  PREDICTION: 9-7, 3rd AFC SOUTH.

I feel bad for Houston fans too—they didn’t have a team for a while, then they got one and found out they had to play in the same division as the Colts and Titans (the team that bolted Houston in the 90’s).  The Texans have solid skill talent in Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson, but they need Matt Schaub to stay healthy since Sage Rosenfels (he of the airborne spinning-top fumble which coughed up the Colts game) left to pick up Brett Favre’s towels in Minnesota.  The Texans keep making strides under Gary Kubiak, though, and might be a year away from pouncing on the back end of Tennessee’s window of opportunity.

7. Miami Dolphins – LAST YEAR: 11-5.  PREDICTION: 9-7, 2nd AFC EAST.

The Dolphins did come out of nowhere last season to win the AFC East in a tiebreaker over New England, but much like their in-state baseball brethren Tampa Bay Rays, are due for a backslide after a remarkable turnaround.  Pat White was an interesting addition especially with Tony Sporano’s affection for the Wildcat (who can forget the Dolphins running roughshod over a shell-shocked Patriots defense last October?) and the offense should score some points with Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, a healthy Ricky Williams, and a rejuvenated Chad Pennington.  I would expect them to slide back a bit, though.

6. Tennessee Titans – LAST YEAR: 13-3.  PREDICTION: 10-6, 2nd AFC SOUTH

The Titans had quite an impressive regular season last year, considering how their assumed starting quarterback had a crisis of confidence and was on suicide watch for a while.  Who would have thought back in 2007 that in the early days of the 2009 season, between Michael Vick and Vince Young, that Vick would be the stable, reliable, veteran, professional presence and Young would be a psychological wreck and basket case?  Kerry Collins only has so many more body shots touchdown passes left in his arm, and Albert Haynesworth’s loss will affect the defense, though perhaps not as much as people might think.  LenDale White has apparently slimmed down, and it will be interesting to see how his new svelte frame complements Chris Johnson.

5. San Diego Chargers – LAST YEAR: 8-8.  PREDICTION: 10-6, 1st AFC WEST

Nothing gives me more pleasure in sports than watching the San Diego Chargers lose.  Nothing.  Not even watching a New York team lose.  (Okay, maybe the Jets.)  But as I’ve said many times on Poor Man’s PTI, never has a team talked more smack and accomplished less than the Chargers.  I seriously think some Charger fans believe that they have four or five Super Bowl titles under their belt.  They make a few AFC Championship games (and lose badly each time) and all of a sudden they’re the Team of the Decade?  Nice try, San Diegans.  The only things douchier than the Chargers themselves prancing around like peacocks with zero accomplishments are San Diego natives (or anyone, really) bragging about the weather where they live, as if they had some divine hand in the sun-factor that day.  Hey, at least they got Darren Sproles back.  But f— Philip Rivers, and f— the Chargers.  But I digress.  Moving right along…

4. Indianapolis Colts – LAST YEAR: 12-4.  PREDICTION: 11-5, 1st AFC SOUTH.

Now that Tony Dungy is on his Worldwide Redemption Tour, serving as a character reference to released felons across America, Jim Caldwell is left with the keys to the kingdom.  Of course, by “kingdom” I mean the unenviable position of being blamed for any Colts letdown, but watching Dungy be given the credit for the Colts’ “program’s” success.  The good news is that even though the Colts might regress by one game, the Titans will fall even more, leaving them with the division title.  I like Donald Brown of UConn splitting more carries with Joseph Addai, but the big question if whether uber-playmaker Bob Sanders can stay healthy and on the field enough to impact the big games.

3. Baltimore Ravens – LAST YEAR: 11-5.  PREDICTION: 10-6, 2nd AFC NORTH.

Yes, I realize that I’m predicting the Colts to have a better record than Baltimore.  I’m still ranking the Ravens higher.  The loss of Rex Ryan and Bart Scott will hurt, but Joe Flacco’s development as a quarterback should keep them near the top of the conference.  Flacco picked up so much usable experience in the playoffs last year to help accelerate his growth to compensate for those losses.  The division is a bit better than last year (hence the one-game won-loss differential), but the Ravens-Steelers games will once again be must-see TV and should decide the AFC North.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers – LAST YEAR: 12-4.  PREDICTION: 12-4, 1st AFC NORTH.

“But they’re the champs!”  Blah, blah.  “To be the man, you have got to beat the man!”  Blah, blah.  “The Steelers are the team of the decade!”  Yada yada yada.  Congrats to the Steelers for their championship* last season.  Good job re-signing James Harrison to a long-term deal.  Bravo for keeping your championship team pretty much intact.  All very impressive.  Now go sit down, son, the adults are talking over here.

1. New England Patriots – LAST YEAR: 11-5.  PREDICTION: 14-2, 1st AFC EAST.

When last we saw Tom Brady in a meaningful game, let’s not forget that he was leading his third last-minute go-ahead drive in a Super Bowl.  Yeah, it didn’t work out, David Tyree, Asante Samuel choked, Plaxico, blah blah blah.  The haters’ comments are so predictable.  The underinformed fan says that the Patriots are old, past their prime, rusty and stale, especially on defense.  But with Jerrod Mayo, Brandon Meriwether, Shawn Springs, Leigh Bodden, Darius Butler, Adalius Thomas, Richard Seymour, and Vince Wilfork, the Pats have potentially one of the most dynamic and athletic defenses in the league.  I’ll be charitable and concede two losses—perhaps at the Colts in Week 10, maybe at Miami in Week 13?  Other than that, who beats them?  And if you had to bet a Patriots-Steelers AFC title game in Foxborough in January, would anyone in their right mind lay money on Pittsburgh?  The Steelers haven’t beaten New England in a meaningful game perhaps since the Ford administration, and with the title of Team of the Decade literally on the line, look for a healthy TB12 and Randy Moss et al to lay a whupping on the Steel Curtain.

Now I’m just waving the pom-poms again.  But am I wrong?  Your Super Bowl XLIV champions: The New England Patriots, for their 4th championship in 7 big game appearances.  The old king is dead… long live the king.