Making Sense of the Mock Drafts

With so many people making their own mock drafts this year, I felt it might be more worthwhile to make a comparison of different versions including some bloggers and paid journalists.

I started by making a Google search and the first hits were actually bloggers followed by some acknowledged NFL journalists from different media sources. Although the results might be affected by the timing of the actual updates, I have tried to keep this in mind in my analysis and have included the last update in the table.

The problem with making a mock draft is that many times the picks are traded away and the teams that take over the slot might have different needs. This can completely change the whole draft order. Almost all those making their selections seemed concerned with this and it means any guessing has to be taken with a grain of salt.

With all this in mind, the following is my analysis of the coming draft based on the input of 6 different mocks prepared during the month of February. It will be possible for a player to be a consensus pick more than once.For those of you who like nice tables, here is the mock draft order and the mock draft first round picks.

Miami Dolphins – Consensus Pick is Chris Long

Miami certainly looks like a team that might forego a single player and trade their Number 1 Pick to fill in their many holes. Nonetheless, no trade has been announced yet so the picks have to consider who they’d take if they don’t unload their position. Chris Long, son of NFL great Howie Long seems to be the consensus choice although Glenn Dorsey’s name was also floated. Both are considered top defensive prospects who would be immediate starters, bringing intensity to a defensive unit seriously needing a boost after such a dismal season.

Almost no one expects them to use this draft pick for an explosive offensive talent like Darren McFadden and only one picked Matt Ryan. One would think that after passing on Brady Quinn last year the Dolphins might try to pacify their suffering fans with a bona fide, front-page all star, but this is Parcells’ team now and he is not known for listening to the Monday morning quarterbacks.

St. Louis Rams – Consensus Picks are Chris Long, Jake Long and Glenn Dorsey

With each player getting two picks it might come down to who is available. If Chris goes in the first round the nod will be to Michigan standout Jake Long as the second pick.

Dorsey at this slot seems attractive, but the majority seem content that last year’s pick of Adam Carriker would stop the Rams front office from using their first pick for another defensive tackle.

Atlanta Falcons – Consensus Pick is Matt Ryan

After Michael Vick totally destroyed the Falcons’ season last year with his indiscretion, they never really recovered at the quarterback slot. Matt Ryan is considered the top QB in this draft and would represent a new era for a team desperately needing to find itself again.

There was speculation that the Falcons might go for Brian Brohm due to the Bobby Petrino connection. However, if the decision is made without personal relationships being taken into mind, Matt Ryan being the first quarterback taken in the draft only stands to reason.

Oakland Raiders – Consensus picks are Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis

With Chris Long pretty much out of the picture Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis seem most likely here. Darren McFadden was “name-dropped”, but only once.

The mention of Ellis is interesting as one panel-member had even taken him as a number one pick while others have him as low as 9th. However, if McFadden is still available it might be too much for Al Davis to pass up assuming he can get some assurances of a faster negotiating period than the last number one offensive standout they drafted.

Kansas City Chiefs – Consensus pick is Jake Long

Anyone who didn’t have Jake Long already off the board put him here. Ryan Clady also came up as offensive tackle is a huge need for this team and they will probably take the best one available.

A familiar scenario has Kansas City trading this slot if Jake Long is off the board and Darren McFadden is still be out there as the Chiefs could get some good trade value for the rights to pick him.

New York Jets – Consensus pick is Darren McFadden

Should none of the above happen, the Jets are likely to take Darren McFadden as the first running back in the draft. Although Thomas Jones has been fine for them, McFadden is considered a unique talent and New York teams usually require some star quality.

This is the first position where Vernon Gholston has been mentioned. He would be expected to have an immediate impact on defense wherever he ends up and the Jets would be well-served with him in their line-up.

New England Patriots – Consensus picks are Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins and Vernon Gholston

The Patriots have some people annoyed with such an early pick in a draft they weren’t even supposed to be joining until the second round, but here they are picking number 7 and you can expect them to go for defense.

The choice of Gholston would give some support to a linebacker corps that is getting a bit old, but 2/3 of the boards were going for cornerbacks with McKelvin getting a couple votes and Mike Jenkins getting the other two. Whatever happens, expect the pick to come from the defense.

Baltimore Ravens – Consensus picks are Brian Brohm and Ryan Clady

Offense is a big problem in Baltimore, Bill Billinck is being replaced and Steve McNair is turning 35, so it might be a good time to reload. Brian Brohm would have been a first-rounder last year so he is one quarterback who might be able to make a quick jump from the NCAA to the NFL.

Without a clear answer to their many questions, a trade for this position might be in the works and some rumors have Donavan McNabb in the mix, but so far nothing on this has been substantiated. If so, Ryan Clady would shore up the offensive line quite well.

Cincinnati Bengals – Consensus picks are Vernon Gholston and Sedrick Ellis

Where Gholston was not taken, he was the choice. If someone picked him to go in an earlier round then Ellis was the choice. The one panelist who had both already gone took Dan Conner.

With the Bengals’ offense you knew they would have to take a defensive pick here. They couldn’t stop much of anything in 2007 and expect them to do everything they can to improve on this for 2008.

New Orleans Saints – Consensus pick is Aqib Talib

Cornerbacks are on the menu in New Orleans as the consensus on them drafting for this position seems to be almost unanimous.

Like the Bengals, the Saints have the offensive tools to build a winner, but without anyone on defense to stop the big play, they will never win championships. As there are enough quality cornerbacks in this draft to choose from, they really would surprise people by not taking one of them.

Buffalo Bills – Consensus pick is Malcolm Kelly

The receiver position as it is the part of the Bills’ offense most in need. They already have linebackers Paul Posluzsny, whose 2007 season was interrupted by injury, and Angelo Crowell who had a great season despite the failures of the unit as a whole.

The Bills were at the bottom of the NFL in both pass and rush defense last year and they certainly cannot ignore this. However, most people expect them to go for a receiver with special teams’ skills and let the defense mature in its present form.

Denver Broncos – Consensus pick is DeSean Jackson

DeSean is only the consensus pick because his name came up twice. However, it is a fair that he is the choice if he is still available. However, the other picks were spread around the field and it seems agreed that Denver has a lot of holes to fill.

Assuming Mr. Jackson is not available, offensive tackle is considered the next most likely position and it will probably come down to the most talented one available that fits into their offensive scheme.

Carolina Panthers – Consensus pick is Jeff Otah

Another case where the consensus is not really unanimous, but it is clear that linemen are the flavor of the day in Carolina.

While Jeff Otah and Ryan Clady are offensive linemen, the other three names being floated are on the defensive side and it would be a safe bet that the Panthers stay on this theme much of the draft.

Chicago Bears – Consensus pick is Chris Williams

When other choices are Brian Brohm, André Woodson and Sam Baker, you get the idea that the outsiders can’t figure out if the Bears’ problems are their quarterbacks or an offensive tackle to protect him. The question is if Chicago’s front office has any better ideas.

Fact is, they all agree that Chicago needs a change at quarterback, but not everyone is convinced they should get one in the draft. Good offensive tackles are available this year with the 14th pick and the Bears might be wise to go that direction and take their chances on a QB through a trade or free agency.

Detroit Lions – Consensus pick is Aqib Talib

Defensive backs and offensive tackles cover the slots, but only Aqib got two votes. Most feel it should be on the defensive side, but Detroit would have to break from tradition as they have drafted only one defensive player in the first round in this decade.

The fact is that both areas need help and the Lions need to find a way to fill both with solid personnel. Despite the defensive needs, the Detroit offence could be even more potent if they could establish the running game and provide more protection for Kitna.

Arizona Cardinals – Consensus pick is Felix Jones

While the earlier mocks had defensive players going to the Arizona desert, the more recent picks went for running backs. The concern is that Arizona might lose linebackers Karlos Dansby or Calvin Pace and this would leave a void in their defense.

On the other hand, Matt Leinart might be missing having Reggie Bush like he had at USC and a solid; go-to guy at the running back position might be the final piece to an offense that always seems ready to break out.

Minnesota Vikings – Consensus pick is Derrick Harvey

Earlier boards had Derrick Harvey lower, but when the Vikings found out that Kenechi Udeze is battling leukemia Harvey suddenly went into everyone’s slot for the Minnesota pick.

Before news had broke about Udeze, the free safety position was considered the most likely use assuming they even kept this pick as they gave up more passing yards than any other team in the NFL in 2007. However, things change and defensive end just became their likely priority.

Houston Texans – Consensus picks are Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall

Once again, the consensus changed as time went on. Earlier boards had Reggie Smith and the cornerback position for Houston, but later polls went strongly for Jonathan Stewart and running back.

There might be a good argument for Mendenhall as he is a unique talent that might surprise many as the season progresses.

Philadelphia Eagles – There is no consensus pick

Defensive ends, offensive tackles and a safety were all named, but even these were varied. The truth might be that no one really knows what it would take to fix Philly.

The real question is if the Eagles will go for good public relations or just address practical needs. Most fans in the city of love believe McNabb can do the job if he just had some better receivers, but don’t expect management to pacify them if they believe it is wasting a pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – There is no consensus pick

If there is a team in the draft where the consensus couldn’t even narrow it down to a couple of positions, it is Tampa Bay. Most parts of the field got some kind of mention.

The only thing that stood out in this comparison is that mostly athletic positions were being named, meaning a policy of “best athlete available” might be in play. One wonders if this means that Tampa Bay is considered to be loaded and that more is expected of them in 2008.

Washington Redskins – Consensus pick is Mario Manningham

Mario was alone in being named twice, but receivers dominated the choices and it is generally believed this is where they will use their first pick..

Calais Campbell at defensive end wasn’t named once on the board, but he was mentioned more than once as an alternative in the articles.

Dallas Cowboys – Consensus pick is Felix Jones

Although receiver is also considered a need due to the “elderly” Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn, Felix Jones was clearly the choice of most of the panel even if he was on the board only twice.

There was some talk about Dallas using their two 1st-round picks to trade up for McFadden, but his Arkansas teammate might prove a more suitable fit along with Marion Barber.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Consensus pick is Gosder Cherilius

Another offensive tackle debuts onto the board and other picks also address the line, mainly on the offensive side. There is some hope that local boy, Jeff Otah will still be available on draft day, but that looks highly unlikely.

Should they decide to go another direction, there is also a need at the receiver position and some good choices should still be available. If all the best offensive linemen are spoken for, look for Pittsburgh to make a split decision in that direction.

Tennessee Titans – Consensus pick is Limas Sweed

Receiver is the word and Limas had the most votes, but expect them to take the best available at this position no matter who it is.

The only breakout from this position was a pick for Calais Campbell at defensive end. However, the needs of Vince Young might well outweigh any needs expressed by the defense and it seems a wideout is in the cards for the Titans.

Seattle Seahawks – Consensus pick is Fred Davis

Davis is the first tight end named in this draft and is considered the top prospect at the position. Seattle’s need at this position has to do with the likely exit of Marcus Pollard leaving a hole in their offence.

Others are guessing at running back and Shaun Alexander’s season in 2007 might lend credence to this rumor. If he doesn’t do something to encourage the front-office that last season was a fluke, their priorities might change quick.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Consensus pick is Philip Merling

The price of being as good as Jacksonville is, but not quite at the top is that pickings get slimmer by this point of the draft. General choices were for defensive end although receiving and defensive backfield also got some attention.

If Merling is still available when the Jaguars pick, expect him to be on his way to Florida. Otherwise, expect them to take the best player available no matter what the position is.

San Diego Chargers – Consensus pick is Kentwan Balmer

A running back or a defensive tackle are their most likely uses for this pick unless they trade for something higher. They don’t have so many short-term needs and will be looking for good talent that can be molded into their system.

There was also mention of a linebacker and a safety and this leaves a higher consensus leaning towards a defensive player being taken based on the most talented available.

Dallas Cowboys – Consensus pick is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

The defensive backfield took most of the picks for the ‘Boys with a running back and receiver in the mix. They might try and wait to pick up Felix Jones with this pick, but most agree he won’t be available anymore if they do that.

With one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, expect the defense to get the most attention once they figure out where to take Mr. Jones.

San Francisco 49ers – Consensus picks is James Hardy

Once again, receivers are among the popular flavors of the 1st round and James Hardy is the best that could still be available. The 49ers would likely prefer to be drafting a bit earlier, but this could be a blessing as they will still get some very good talent for a lesser price.

There is an outside possibility they could go for the linebacker position and, if Keith Rivers is still there, they might snatch him up. However, the post-Rice era hasn’t produced enough offensive firepower for a 49er fan so this seems a doubtful scenario.

Green Bay Packers – There is no consensus pick

More than half of the panel is going for a defensive back, but the offense is not being overlooked. Nevertheless, the general feeling is that the cornerback position needs first attention.

An interesting pick could occur if Rashard Mendenhall is still available. Despite Ryan Grant’s performance in the latter part of 2007 including the 200+ yards he compiled against Seattle in the playoffs, Mendenhall is a great talent and the Packers might have trouble passing him by.

New England Patriots – Pick Forfeited

New York Giants – Consensus pick is Keith Rivers

If Keith Rivers is still available, he should be heading to the Big Apple. Even if the Giants don’t lose players to free agency as it is expected they will, Rivers would greatly strengthen their linebacking corps and they wouldn’t pass him up if he is still available.

Should Rivers not be there, it still seems to be the defenses’ pick with options at defensive line and cornerback being mentioned.

So there you have it; round 1 according to 6 “experts”. Some are self-proclaimed while others get paid to know, but at the end of the day, none of them will have it entirely right. We can only hope the general managers of our favorite teams will have as good or better idea as they compile the talent needed for another NFL season.