MLB Power Rankings Wrapup and Playoff Preview

Well, folks, it’s finally here. The baseball season has ended, award votes have been cast, and the playoffs are about to begin. The Astros and Phillies both made last-second runs at the postseason, but came up just short. The Dodgers put the pressure on the Padres to win their last game of the season, and San Diego responded by winning the game, and tying for the lead in the West. The Padres get the pennant on the basis of the tie-breaker, defeating the Dodgers in 13 of 18 meetings, a stat that might be worth remembering if they both win their opening round matches. Also, the last team to take the Wild Card on the basis of a tie in standings, but a loss of the tie-breaker, was the ’04 Red Sox who beat the Yankees in seven, and swept the Cardinals in the Series.

On the American League side, the Twins captured the AL Central pennant on the last day of the season, and will face the playoff-pitiful Oakland A’s. Detroit, by reason of losing the Central pennant will have to face the mighty Yankees. One way or another, it should be an interesting couple of weeks. I, personally, have a busy schedule planned for the next three weeks- three games on Tuesday, three more games on Wednesday, two on Thursday… I might have to buy new couch cushions by the end of October.

On a different note, this is the last MLB Power Rankings article of the season, and I’d like to thank everybody who’s read the articles, and the people who have made comments. Enjoy the rankings, and a first round playoff preview, and as always, questions, comments, and complaints, are welcomed.

Rank (Pv)	Team	Record	Comments
1 (1)		97-65	There is an interesting correlation between the major awards voting and the Yankees lack of recent World Series appearances. The last time the Yankees made it to the Series was 2001, which was the last time they didn’t have a player in the top three in MVP voting, and was also the last time they had a Cy Young winner.
2 (3)		96-66	Without one-half of the Santana-Liriano duo available for the postseason, the pressure will fall on the shoulders of Carlos Silva and Boof Bonser. For September Bonser is 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA; Silva is 2-3 with a 4.28.
3 (4)		93-69	Frank Thomas, who will likely get votes for both MVP and comeback player of the year, has picked the wrong time of the year to go cold. Thomas has hit just .188 over the last week of the season, and hasn’t hit a homerun since September 17th.
4 (2)		97-65	Momentum is key for October. Each of the last four World Series winning teams had at least 18 wins over the last month of the season (Chicago, 19; Boston, 21; Florida, 18; Anaheim, 18). New York only has 15, but they did end the season on a four game winning streak.
5 (5)		95-67	The Tigers lost the division on the last game of the season, but they’re still playoff bound for the first time since 1987, when Ken Griffey Jr. was selected first overall in the amateur draft (by the Seattle Mariners), Alan Trammell was runner-up for the AL MVP, and the top-grossing film was Three Men and a Baby.
6 (6)		90-72	I’d like to nominate Ozzie Guillen for a spot at Miller Lite’s Square Table. We all know he wouldn’t be afraid to speak his mind.
7 (7)		89-73	With Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver, the Angels have two of the best pitchers in the game, under the age of 24, and it’s easy to forget that John Lackey is only 27.
8 (9)		88-74	We’ve come to expect that the Dodgers are a team that is either red hot, or ice cold. They ride into the playoffs having won nine out of their last 10, which has to mean they’ll either continue their winning streak and streak through the playoffs or fall flat on their faces.
9 (10)		88-74	Congratulations to Trevor Hoffman, who passed Lee Smith for the All-Time saves record. Hopefully this will correct one of the major discrepancies in the Hall-of Fame membership, that the all-time record holder for a major pitching statistic does not have a place in the Hall.
10 (8)		83-78	Scott Rolen has got to step up if the Cardinals are going to be successful in the postseason. The four-time All-Star has hit just .227 in September. Rolen’s career postseason average is .190.
11 (12)		85-77	I was afraid that I might never be able to say this, but thanks to Pat Gillick for giving me the opportunity to welcome one of my favorite players in the game back to baseball: Randall Simon. A man who never saw a cheeseburger or a fastball he didn’t like. In over 1,600 career ABs, Simon has only walked 81 times, but his most famous swing of the bat was aimed not at a pitch, but at a running sausage in Milwaukee. Welcome back, Randall.
12 (11)		86-76	The Red Sox seemed primed to win the AL East this year. They’ve gotten progressively closer to winning the division since 2001. In ’01 they finished 13.5 games back, 10.5 in ’02, 6 in ’03, 3 in ’04, and tied in ’05, but lost the tie-breaker and made the playoffs as the Wild Card. However, this year they lost the division by the largest margin since 2001.
13 (13)		87-77	The Blue Jays have actually passed the Red Sox for second place in the AL East, the first time they’ve finished that high since the back-to-back World Series years.
14 (18)		82-80	Houston almost made one of the most improbable comebacks in the history of baseball, but came up one game short.
15 (14)		80-82	Brad Wilkerson has never been able to regain the swing that lead to his 2004 season with Montreal, when he hit 32 homeruns and had an on-base percentage of .374. This year, in a limited role, Wilkerson hit only .222.
16 (15)		78-84	As it was rumored months before, Joe Girardi will not be returning as the Marlins manager next season. There is a good chance that he’ll be back in Chicago where he spent seven years of his playing career.
17 (17)		80-82	Congratulations to Ken Griffey Jr. who tied Reggie Jackson in his first game back since his dislocated toe placed him on the disabled list for the second time this season.
18 (19)		79-83	Outside of Georgia, Chipper Jones has 14 homeruns, with an average of .355. At home he’s only hit .282.
19 (22)		78-84	The Mariners finish in last place in the AL West for the third consecutive year under Mike Hargrove, with Bill Bavasi as the general manager, yet have said that both will return next season. So, I guess we can expect a fourth consecutive last place finish here in Seattle.
20 (16)		76-85	The Giants finished the season in a slump, but at least they’re not as bad as the 49ers.
21 (24)		78-84	Cleveland was a monster disappointment this season, but I think they could be a dark horse contender for the AL Central next season.
22 (20)		76-86	I say it’s not too late to bring back Wally Backman.
23 (21)		75-87	The Brewers drew 2.3 million fans this year, third most in club history.
24 (23)		76-86	The Rockies have failed to have a winning season for the sixth consecutive season, and the 10th time in their 14th year of existence.
25 (25)		70-92	Daniel Cabrera’s game against the New York Yankees exemplifies the fickle nature of the game. Cabrera, who had given up 130 hits in just 148 innings, came within two outs of no-hitting the greatest offense in the game.
26 (26)		71-91	Frank Robinson will not be returning to the team next year, which, to me, begs the question- Why wait so long to fire him? Most people didn’t think he’d be returning, so why let him coach out the rest of the season? On another note, no team fired their manager during the year.
27 (27)		67-95	Not many people figured he could hold on to the batting average lead all season (myself included), but Freddy Sanchez held off all comers and won the batting title. It was the first time a Pirate won the honor since Bill Madlock, when I was three years old. Also, the Pirates had a winning record at home for the first time since PNC opened.
28 (28)		62-91	Mark Prior will have a minor off-season surgery and be ready to pitch by spring training. Yeah, sure, we’ve heard that one before. In other injury-prone pitcher news, Kerry Wood might be cut loose and allowed into the free-agent market this fall.
29 (29)		61-101	The Devil Rays have slipped the rumor that they might use their best player, Carl Crawford, as trade bait over the off-season. The speedster hit .305 with 18 homeruns, 77 RBI, and 58 stolen bases.
30 (30)		62-100	In the 21 years since winning the World Series, the Royals have now had six last-place finishes and 14 losing seasons. They’ve also had three rookie of the years, two Cy Youngs, and a manager of the year.

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are looking to break the Billy Beane curse of their inability to escape the first round of the playoffs, but the Minnesota Twins are standing in their way. Minnesota won the AL Central on the last day of the season, overcoming a 10-game deficit from the 1st of July. While this season was supposed to be the coming-out party for Oakland’s youngsters like Nick Swisher, Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden, Huston Street, Joe Blanton, and Dan Haren, the focus of the last half of the season has been placed squarely on the Minnesota Twins’ standouts: Joe Mauer, who became the first AL catcher to win a batting title; Justin Morneau, and his improbable hunt for the MVP; Francisco Liriano’s explosion onto the scene; Johan Santana’s dominant quest for a second Cy Young; and not to be ignored were the emergences of Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, and Boof Bonser. But, before you count out the Athletics, by saying they don’t have Minnesota’s momentum, or Minnesota’s star-laden offense, or just that the A’s can’t win a postseason series, take a deeper look at Oakland’s pitching. Zito is still an ace-caliber arm and didn’t give up a run in his only outing against the Twins, earlier in the season. Rich Harden was injured for most of the season, but struck out 12 hitters in eight innings, during his two starts fresh off the DL. Dan Haren had outings where he looked dominant (and outings that he didn’t). All in all, Oakland had the fourth best ERA in the AL, which is the good news. The bad news, however, is that the Twins had the second best.

The key matchup of this series is between the closers. Huston Street’s numbers look pretty good, with 37 saves and an ERA just over 3.00, but he did lose four games and blow 10 saves, second worst in the AL. Joe Nathan on the other hand, has been unshakable with a 7-0 record, 36 saves, and a 1.58 ERA. Nathan blew only two saves all season (fewest in the AL), and lead all closers in WHIP (0.79), batting average against (.158), and strikeouts per nine innings (12.51). If the Twins make a solid run in the playoffs look for Nathan to have a Rivera-esque postseason. If the Athletics are going to make a run, look for Street to do better than saving 79% of his chances.

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

The Tigers had the best record in baseball for most of the season, but fell to playing mediocre baseball sometime in the dog days of summer. By the time the dust had cleared, they no longer had the best record in baseball, and by the time the season had ended, they no longer held the best record in the AL Central. As the Wild Card team, they will have to play the new team with the best record in the AL: the New York Yankees. The turning point for the Yankees was the acquisition of Bobby Abreu. Although they needed pitching more than anything, they acquired Abreu to fill in for Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui. Now that Sheffield and Matsui have returned the Yankees are looking at a $130 million lineup that is operating on all cylinders. The pitching staff still lacks luster, but Mike Mussina has plenty of playoff experience, and Chien-Ming Wang would be a Cy Young contender if Johan Santana hadn’t won the Triple Crown. Randy Johnson is optimistic about pitching in game three, but it’s hard to say if he will, or how effective he’ll be. On the other side of the diamond, the Tigers have an offense full of free-swingers. They have the second fewest walks in the AL, and the second most strikeouts. Typically, teams that can boast these rankings are fishing in October, not playing baseball. The saving grace for the Tigers is that they have six players who have 19 or more homeruns (Granderson, Ordonez, Guillen, Inge, Monroe, and Thames), and top-to-bottom, the best pitching staff in the majors.

There will be plenty of things to pay attention to in this series, even for the casual fan who doesn’t care about Detroit or New York: the most dominant reliever of all time, Mariano Rivera; one of the most dominating pitchers of our era, and a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer, Randy Johnson; one of the greatest defensive catchers of all time, Ivan Rodriguez; Joel Zumaya’s triple-digit fastball; and whether or not two-time MVP Alex Rodriguez continues to choke in prime-time situations. There will be plenty of things for the more fanatic baseball fans to watch as well. Pay attention to Bobby Abreu’s command of the strike zone- he takes more at-bats to a full-count than anybody I’ve ever seen. Pay attention to the managing strategies of two great coaches, Joe Torre and Jim Leyland- particularly the way Leyland makes trips to the mound for purposes other than pulling the pitcher. Pay attention to Derek Jeter’s immeasurable leadership qualities that likely won him the MVP this season. Watch Mussina’s knuckle-curve, Rivera’s cut-fastball, and Wang’s sinker. Watch the composure of Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander, both only 23 years old. And if none of these things get your blood flowing faster than normal, you can always laugh at simple sexual innuendos involving Wang, Moose, and Johnson.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Here’s a brief history lesson for you. The last time the Dodgers were in the World Series was 1988. The last time the Mets won the NL East, was also 1988, when they lost the NLCS to the eventual world champion Los Angeles Dodgers. And 1988 was the last time the Dodgers won a playoff series. Many years before that, the Dodgers actually used to play in New York, but for some reason, at they didn’t refer to themselves as the Los Angeles Dodgers until they moved to California. Go figure. Of course, none of this is relevant to who wins this series between New York and Los Angeles. The Mets have the best record in baseball, the third best pitching staff in the NL, three hitters with over 114 RBI, and the league’s leading base stealer. However, this series might be more about what the Mets don’t have than what they do. They don’t have Pedro Martinez. Which means that Grady Little won’t have a chance to leave him in the game one pitch too many.

Okay, so that joke was terrible. I admit.

But, in all honesty, Pedro’s absence is huge for the outcome of this series. Without him the Mets will rely on a starting staff of Tom Glavine (wasn’t he supposed to be done for the season?), John Maine (who?), Steve Trachsel (he’s still pitching?), and Orlando Hernandez (is there anybody who actually believes he is only 36?). The Dodgers might not have a hard-hitting ballclub, but let’s not forget they did hit four homeruns in seven pitches. And instead of coasting into the playoffs, the Dodgers are riding a seven game winning streak, with the pressure of their playoff future hanging in the balance.

The whole key to this upcoming series is the Mets pitching, which means conversely, that the other key is the Dodgers lineup. While the Mets have three players who have over 25 homeruns, the Dodgers have zero. Nomar Garciaparra and JD Drew both lead the team with 20 homeruns each. The Dodgers will have to get good performances out of their young talent, Russell Martin (both offensively, and in keeping Reyes and Beltran under control), Andre Ethier, and Wilson Betemit, as well as veterans Rafael Furcal, Jeff Kent, Marlon Anderson, Garciaparra, and Drew. If one man is going to make or break this series, look for Carlos Beltran to duplicate his monster 2004 playoff series, when he hit eight homeruns in 12 games.

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres

At this point the Cardinals have to be thanking God for allowing them to even get into the playoffs. But, now that they’ve made it, anything can happen. Obviously the Cardinals have the most explosive offensive weapon in this matchup- quite frankly, they have the most explosive offensive weapon of all teams in the playoffs: Albert Pujols. Unfortunately for them, he seems to be their only offensive weapon and their pitching isn’t all that great either. Former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter looked great for most of the season, but struggled twice in huge games down the stretch. Jeff Suppan is probably their second-best pitcher, and any team that goes into the playoffs with Jeff Suppan as their second-best pitcher had better have an offense to supply the backup. Jason Isringhausen is injured, so there is some question as to who will take over the closing duties, so if the Padres can keep it close for the majority of the game, they could make a few late-inning comebacks. The Padres major flaw is their floundering offense. Where the Cards have one bat that needs to be feared, the Padres really don’t have any. Mike Piazza and Brian Giles are the most consistent hitters on the team, but Piazza doesn’t play every day and Giles hit only 14 homeruns, his lowest total since 1996, when he only played 51 games. The pressure of the offense will fall on the young shoulders of Khalil Greene, Josh Barfield, and Adrian Gonzalez. Greene got his playoff feet wet last year, but Barfield and Gonzalez will be making their postseason debuts.

The true strength of the Padres, however, is their pitching staff, top to bottom. Jake Peavy and Chris Young both show young, raw, ace-quality stuff, and their bullpen of Scott Linebrink, Alan Embree, Cla Meredith, Scott Cassidy, and Brian Sweeney is the best in the major leagues. Oh, and let’s not forget, Trevor Hoffman, who is, with all due respect to Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time. Rivera has the postseason numbers, but in terms of regular season statistics, Hoffman has more career saves, and a higher career save percentage (90% vs 88%), and has been doing it for a longer period of time, as well.

If the Cardinals can defeat the Padres in this series, several things will have happened. The Cardinals hitters will have proven that they are more than just one man. That means Scott Rolen proving he can do a viable job protecting Pujols. That means Jim Edmonds turning around an entire season of injuries and inconsistency. That means role players like David Eckstein, Juan Encarnacion, and Preston Wilson coming up with key hits in key situations. The second thing that must have happened is that the Cardinals bullpen held their ground. Adam Wainwright will likely be closing games, but he has only saved three career games. This stat might be blown out of proportion, though, because, remember, Bobby Jenks only had six career saves before dominating the ’05 playoffs with the White Sox. The rest of the ‘pen, including former closer Braden Looper, has been good at times, but never stellar. They’ll need outstanding numbers and a lot of innings if the Cardinals are going to get out of the first round, or more so, if they’re going to make a World Series run.

Predictions

Divisional Series

Minnesota defeats Oakland in 4

New York defeats Detroit in 3

Los Angeles defeats New York in 5

San Diego defeats St. Louis in 4

League Championship Series

Minnesota defeats New York in 7

San Diego defeats Los Angeles in 7

World Series

Minnesota defeats San Diego in 6