MLB Predictions: Part II

The second half of the Major League Baseball Season is underway, and it’s safe to say the first half had its share of surprises. What are the Detroit Tigers doing on top of the A.L. Central? What are the Cleveland Indians doing in fourth place? What are the Atlanta Braves, winners of 14 straight N.L. East titles doing…well…not in first?!

Down the stretch, don’t expect any less excitement. In fact, with every team in both of the West divisions still in the hunt, the Yankees and Red Sox fighting it out again, and trade deadline deals still to be made, you can expect even more excitement than the first half held.

This is how the divisions will play out:

A.L. West:

1. Oakland Athletics:

The A’s are my hometown team, and I just don’t think they have enough this year. But, looking at the other three teams in the division, and considering Oakland’s ridiculous second-half history I couldn’t pick anyone else to win it. They have Barry Zito (who I don’t think Billy Beane will trade this season) and Danny Haren performing consistently in the rotation and their bullpen has been good enough. Esteban Loaiza will provide veteran leadership down the stretch if nothing else, and Rich Harden should return eventually. So, if Harden, Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez stay healthy, I see no reason why the A’s won’t win the division.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:

If the Angels GM, Bill Stoneman, would just make a move, the Angels would win the West outright. But he is hesitant to give up his young talent for a big bat. Their farm system is absolutely loaded with prospects, and I don’t think it would hurt to give a couple of them up for an outfielder. A name that comes to mind is Alfonso Soriano. The Angels have good pitching, but are in real need of that extra hitter in the lineup, and Soriano would be perfect.

3. Seattle Mariners:

I was really tempted to pick the M’s to win the division. But other than Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, Jose Lopez and Kenji Johjima, their offense just isn’t consistent enough to get them that far. Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson don’t get the job done in the middle of their order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle make a move to get another hitter, but they won’t do enough to make the playoffs.

4. Texas Rangers:

Yeah, yeah, yeah they’re in second place right now. Sure, Mark Teixeira is on the verge of catching fire. I don’t care because they STILL don’t have any pitching! Granted, their rotation is much improved from the past couple seasons, but they still don’t have anyone solid. Kevin Millwood is underperforming as the ace, and Vicente Padilla is not a number two pitcher. All four teams are going to be so close down the stretch, that if Texas can swing a trade for someone like Livan Hernandez, they could have a legitimate shot at the division title.

A.L. Central:

1. Chicago White Sox:

The defending champions are still the best team in the league, despite trailing the Tigers in the division. They have good pitching, a great offense, and an impenetrable defense. The Sox will continue to play consistently well and will eventually surpass the Tigers to take the division. By the way, don’t be surprised if Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko and Jim Thome all end the season hitting over .300 with 40 home runs and 120 RBI’s.

2. Detroit Tigers:

First of all, I’d just like to point out that in my pre-season predictions, I specifically said that the Tigers were `developing into a very good team.’ Okay, so I also said they’d finish third, but it wasn’t a bad call on my part. Gloating aside, the Tigers are not just a first half wonder team. They are for real. You’ll see them in the playoffs as a wild card, but don’t be surprised either if they are playing in October against the National League’s best. Yeah, they’re that good.

3. Minnesota Twins:

I completely underestimated the Twins. I did not foresee Francisco Liriano being a contender for Rookie of the Year AND Cy Young. I didn’t realize how good of a hitter Joe Mauer is. I just completely discounted the Twins this season. Now I can’t say they’ll contend for the wild card, but they have put together a good season, and will finish with a much better record than I expected. Too bad they have to share a division with Chicago and Detroit, because otherwise you’re looking at a playoff team.

4. Cleveland Indians:

That munching sound you hear? Oh, that’s just me eating my words. I had the Indians winning the World Series this year. Oops. They won’t be anywhere near the playoffs because they won’t pull off a second half run like last years. They will try to deal third baseman Aaron Boone at the deadline to give Andy Marte his much overdue shot at a job, and hopefully bring in another decent pitcher. What they really need to do is start to prepare for next year by thinking about getting another starting pitcher and a veteran presence in the dugout to guide the youngsters (Barry Zito comes to mind…).

5. Kansas City Royals:

They suck. They need to make a lot of moves. Nobody will sign with them though and they don’t have much trade bait. Bummer. Did I mention they suck?

A.L. East:

1. Boston Red Sox:

Not only are the Red Sox good, but they are the most playoff-ready team in the majors. They are leading the strongest division in the league and won’t get as much competition as usual from the Yankees. Mark Loretta, Mike Lowell, Coco Crisp and Josh Beckett have all been incredible pick-ups thus far and will continue to play well. David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Trot Nixon, Jason Varitek and Curt Schilling all share the bond of being on the 2004 championship team. That history and the talent of all their regulars will push the Red Sox at least into the second round of the playoffs. The only question mark is if Jonathan Papelbon will be able to handle the pressure of closing games in the postseason.

2. New York Yankees:

I swear, if Sidney Ponson comes out of nowhere to lead the Yankees to the playoffs this year, George Steinbrenner will either be the luckiest man alive or the smartest. Too bad their only hope of contending is if Ponson does just that, because The Boss is going to play the waiting game for Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield to come back, and they don’t have enough bait to get a good pitcher at the trade deadline. Much like the National League’s Braves, their division-winning streak ends this year, along with their string of postseason appearances.

3. Toronto Blue Jays:

The only reason the Jays won’t finish second in front of the Yanks is because the Yankees always find a way to win down the stretch. They will be just a couple games behind New York when all is said and done, and although they won’t make the playoffs, they made quite an effort and proved me wrong. I think if the Blue Jays get one more bat they will be contenders next season.

4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays:

The award for All-Star snub of the century goes to Carl Crawford. This guy is leading the Rays, who have tons of talent, but no pitching. I know I keep saying this, but if Tampa Bay had a higher payroll they’d be up there in the race every season. No questions asked. Scott Kazmir is a legitimate ace, so if they can hold onto him and get one more solid starter, look out.

5. Baltimore Orioles:

The curse of the steroids hangs over the Orioles who, despite a few bright spots (Ramon Hernandez, Miguel Tejada, Chris Ray, Corey Patterson) still can’t find a way to win. It doesn’t help that they have to play Toronto, New York and Boston a million times a year, let alone the other good American League teams. Wow, sometimes it just seems unfair that the A.L. is so much better than the N.L.

N.L. West:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers:

Nomar Garciaparra is having a fantastic season and should not have been relegated to the `final man’ vote for the All-Star game. But all this talk about him being N.L. MVP is ridiculous. Not when Albert Pujols is in your league. Anyway, the Dodgers look good for the stretch run. Brad Penny and his 99 mile-per-hour fastballs (where did those come from??) anchor the rotation and the Eric Gagne-less bullpen has improved from the beginning of the season. Rafael Furcal is heating up and the rookies Andre Ethier and Russell Martin are having a huge impact. Don’t be surprised though, if Ned Colletti tries to trade for Alfonso Soriano or Livan Hernandez of the Nationals, just to close the door on the division.

2. Colorado Rockies:

The Rockies are another team who proved me wrong. I expected them to just rot in the cellar like usual, but they have performed well all-around, the entire season. They have a good offense, led by the underrated Todd Helton, the unheard-of Matt Holliday, and the unstoppable Garret Atkins. Jeff Francis is filthy at the top of the rotation and the bullpen isn’t too shabby. I think they’ll stick around in the wild card race for a while, but they will fall short.

3. San Francisco Giants:

I was tempted to pick the Giants to finish fourth based on the average age of 87 on their active roster, and the fact that Barry Bonds will hopefully be in jail by September (Did I say that?).  But, they always surprise me in the second half, and I think they will keep it close with the fresh talent of Pedro Feliz and Noah Lowry and the re-incarnation of Jason Schmidt. Unfortunately, Armando Benitez is a terrible closer and won’t be able to finish important ball games down the stretch, so the Giants will finish third, and just behind the Rockies in the wild card.

4. San Diego Padres:

If Jake Peavy can stay healthy and return to his old form in the second half, San Diego has a chance of winning the whole division. So, why then are they ranked fourth? Simply because Peavy probably won’t stay healthy, even if he starts throwing well. That’ll just kill the Padres chances, and their offense doesn’t have enough punch to carry them this year. Having said that, if the Padres make a deadline trade to get a good hitter in the lineup, they will contend. Do you think Bobby Abreu likes the beach?

5. Arizona Diamondbacks:

They just don’t have enough. The D’backs were in first for a while, but they just can’t keep it up. They won’t make any significant deals to vault them to the top, and they won’t do it with the team they have now. Too bad. Better luck next year!

N.L. Central:

1. St. Louis Cardinals:

Albert Pujols. He’s going to win the N.L. MVP and he’s going to lead the surprisingly average Cards to the playoffs. They will have to fend off a couple teams to stay on top, but will win it in the end. If Mark Mulder and Jason Marquis start pitching more consistently, they will run away with it. And word on the street is that St. Louis is looking for a solid, permanent left fielder. Once again, Abreu and Soriano are both available, and last time I checked the A’s had way too many outfielders to handle.

2. Houston Astros:

The Astros just acquired Aubrey Huff, who will be a tremendous boost to their offense. They have the good playoff pitching rotation with Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt and will make quite a run when they grab the wild card. They will be the second best team in the league going into the playoffs and could very well knock off the Mets in a short series too. Don’t count them out until the very end.

3. Milwaukee Brewers:

I don’t think Carlos Lee is going anywhere this year, not when the Brewers still have a chance to make the playoffs. He will stay put, and Milwaukee is going to surprise and impress a lot of people with a spirited playoff run. They will fall just short but they’re going to bring in a pitcher in the off-season, try to re-sign Lee, and contend for the division next year.

4. Cincinnati Reds:

One deal. One deal killed them. Unless they make up for it by swinging another trade, the Reds are going to fall, and fall fast. They just got rid of Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner for a bunch of guys that are just going to make the offense worse. Thank goodness they got a few relievers who will make 20 decent appearances out of the bullpen. This trade just doesn’t make sense to me, and neither will the Reds’ fourth-place finish to many hopeful fans looking for a Cinderella story. Sorry, but this time Cinderella is shot down.

5. Chicago Cubs:

I don’t want to talk about the Cubs. They have too many good players to battle the Pirates for fifth place. I have to move on before I get sick.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jason Bay is really good. Freddy Sanchez is good. Frankly, I think Johnny Depp and Orlando Bloom make better Pirates than the rest of the team. They won’t make a deadline deal or an off-season acquisition of value. So, like the Royals, the Pirates just need to build up that farm system if they want to start being respected again.

N.L. East:

1. New York Mets:

I didn’t think the Mets would be this good. They are though, and will be the best team in the N.L. by far going into the playoffs. They will run away with the division, and I think they will try to strengthen their position by making an offer for Livan Hernandez to complement Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine. There’s not much else to say about the Mets. The other teams in the East don’t stand a chance.

2. Atlanta Braves:

The Braves are surging. They are finally playing well, a feat that only took them about HALF THE SEASON. It’s too late now, as they’ll find themselves out of the playoffs, and no longer holding that division winning streak. The Braves have tremendous talent and a great balance of age and experience on both sides of the ball, so if they can not blow it completely at the beginning of next year, they look like a solid pick to get back into the playoffs in 2007.

3. Florida Marlins:

Surprise, surprise! The baby fish aren’t too bad! Led by Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Fish have put together a respectable season. They are much better than most people thought, and are going to be force in the coming years. Dan Uggla should be Rookie of the Year if he keeps hitting and Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson are going to be extremely good players. I see no reason why the Marlins won’t be in the division race down to the wire every year by 2008.

4. Philadelphia Phillies:

When you have a lineup with Bobby Abreu, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, you have to be doing better than fourth place. Somehow the Phils just don’t win. If they can get a pitcher or two, they are going to be really, really good. Cole Hamels will develop into one of those pitchers they need, so if they could just grab another pitcher this off-season cough Zito cough, they should have a much stronger team next year.

5. Washington Nationals:

If they do trade Livan Hernandez and Alfonso Soriano this season (which they should), they better get some solid players or prospects. They need a couple pitchers, especially if Hernandez leaves, and two good hitters to even have a chance at competing.

Predictions:

A.L.D.S.:

Detroit def. Chicago in five

Boston def. Oakland in four

N.L.D.S.:

New York def. Houston in five

Los Angeles def. St. Louis in five

A.L.C.S.:

Boston def. Detroit in six

N.L.C.S.:

New York def. Los Angeles in seven

World Series:

Boston def. New York in six