Training camps are about to start, fantasy leagues are being set up, and everyone’s starting to get football fever. This is the best time of the year… if you don’t count the 21 weeks when football is actually being played. So, what could be better than the third part of this series, as we take a look at the AFC South?Houston Texans
Key Additions:
Sam Cowart, LB; Jeb Putzier, TE; Eric Moulds, WR; Jameel Cook, RB; Antowain Smith, RB; Sage Rosenfels, QB; Anthony Weaver, DE; Mike Flanagan, C; Kevin Walter, WR; N.D. Kalu, DE; Zeke Moreno, LB; Mario Williams (Draft), DE; DeMeco Ryans (Draft), LB
Key Losses:
Jabar Gaffney, WR; Corey Bradford, WR; Marcus Coleman, DB; Jason Bell, DB; Milford Brown, OG; Jonathan Wells, RB; Gary Walker, DT; Tony Banks, QB
Strengths:
While the Texans still have a long way to go before they become a playoff team, they’ve done some things in the off season to set themselves in the right direction. It is obvious that they made a real conscious effort to improve their defense, starting with the selection of Mario Williams with the first overall pick. Unlike many folks, I’m actually a fan of this pick. While Reggie Bush may be a good player, the Texans already have a few good backs in Domanick Davis, Vernand Morency, and Antowain Smith. Good teams start with a good defense and that is the philosophy Houston was going for. Williams will be better than Julius Peppers, mark my words. They also improved the front seven with some solid linebacker and d-lineman acquisitions. The receiving corps have actually become a strength in Houston, IF Andre Johnson can finally figure out how to utilize his immense talent. They added a nice compliment in Eric Moulds and Jeb Putzier will give the offense some versatility.
Weaknesses:
The offensive line is still a weakness for the Texans. This was probably the worst part of the team last year and they just didn’t do enough to find a solution in the off season. Granted, the addition of Gary Kubiak as head coach will help them out if he puts his great schemes from Denver to use in Houston. However, he can’t do anything without players. Quarterback is another weakness. Sure, all of David Carr’s troubles can be blamed on a poor line, but we haven’t seen any proof that he can play well at all. His poor play could be just as much of a problem. The secondary also looks pretty weak. If you look at Houston’s key additions, you won’t find a single defensive back in the mix.
Prediction:
5-11, third in AFC South
Many teams would be happy to improve by three wins in one season, but when you go 2-14 the season before, a three win improvement doesn’t seem like much at all. They took a step in the right direction, but still have a way to go.
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Indianapolis Colts
Key Additions:
Adam Vinatieri, K; Joseph Addai (Draft), RB
Key Losses:
Edgerrin James, RB; Larry Tripplett, DT; Mike Vanderjagt, K; David Thornton, LB; Troy Walters, WR
Strengths:
This entire team is pretty much one giant strength. Obviously, their offense is their best weapon, led by Peyton Manning. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne will be lining up on opposite sides again to intimidate even the best of defenses. The offensive line is great, anchored as usual by center Jeff Saturday. They have a dual threat at running back with rookie Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes, even with the loss of the Edge. Kicking has finally become a huge strength for Indy with the addition of Vinatieri. He brings the clutch factor to the game which was clearly lacking with Vanderjagt. The defense, which grew immensely last season, is another strength. They are solid at all levels, and will disrupt any offense. Even though they didn’t make any major additions on that side of the ball and lost two big names, they have enough depth that they should be just as effective as last year.
Weaknesses:
The loss of Edgerrin James appears to be the biggest problem with this team. He brought that great second dimension to the Colts offense and it’s questionable whether or not Manning will be as efficient without the Edge. However, they have a viable short-term option in Rhodes and a great long-term one in Addai. The biggest weakness with this team is the inexperience when it comes to winning big games. No doubt they will have a great regular season and maybe even challenge 16-0 again with some luck. They will probably even get home-field advantage in the playoffs. However, when the playoffs do roll around, many will question their chances. Sure, Vinatieri will help, but when you break it down, he can only account for maybe 6-9 points a game. Peyton Manning and crew will have to do the rest themselves.
Prediction:
13-3, first in AFC South
Manning should have another great season, even with some big losses on offense. However, once the playoffs roll around, look for it to be a different story. Take it to the bank; 2006 will not be the year the Colts break their curse.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Additions:
Mike Williams, OT; Brian Williams, DB; Randy Hymes, WR; Troy Edwards, WR; Nick Greisen, LB; Marcedes Lewis (Draft), TE; Maurice Drew (Draft), RB
Key Losses:
Jimmy Smith, WR; Akin Ayodele, LB; Deke Cooper, DB; Mike Pearson, OT; Kenny Wright, DB; Jamie Winborn, LB
Strengths:
Like last season, the Jags’ biggest strength is their defense. With Marcus Stroud and John Henderson clogging up the middle, it’s very difficult for their opponents to establish any sort of inside running game. The linebackers are decent enough to get by and the secondary is great. The loss of Deke Cooper might hurt a bit, but Brian Williams is a good defensive back as well and should fill in admirably. The Jags also look pretty good at quarterback. While they don’t have a standout guy who will lead the league in anything, they have great depth with Byron Leftwich and David Garrard. Garrard is probably the best backup in the league and that’s a great thing for the oft injured Leftwich. Garrard is also very mobile and could be a good compliment to Leftwich’s pocket style, should Jack Del Rio choose to use them that way. The offensive line also looks pretty good.
Weaknesses:
While they may have a good quarterback situation, the offense will struggle because of a lack of weapons. The running backs are shaky. Fred Taylor is the only proven guy, but an injury at some point is almost a guarantee. They have a few other possible options, but none of them have had much success in the NFL. After losing Jimmy Smith to retirement, the receiving corps has also taken quite a hit. Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford will likely battle it out for the number one job. Unfortunately, both of those guys would be number three on most other teams. First round draft pick, Lewis, may be helpful, but probably won’t start over the old veteran, Kyle Brady, who is more of a blocking tight end.
Prediction:
9-7, second in AFC South
The Jaguars are going to need their defense to carry them through the season and I don’t think they’ll carry them into the playoffs. The offense doesn’t look good. They just don’t have the personnel required to get past teams like the Colts, Patriots, or Steelers.
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Tennessee Titans
Key Additions:
Chris Hope, DB; Kevin Mawae, C; David Givens, WR; David Thornton, LB; Vince Young (Draft), QB; LenDale White (Draft), RB
Key Losses:
Steve McNair, QB; Tank Williams, DB; Justin Hartwig, OG; Brad Kassell, WR; Rocky Boiman, LB
Strengths:
There really isn’t any way the Titans can be much worse than last year, so that’s a good thing… I guess. There aren’t many stars to be found on this Tennessee team. The defense has some good players on every level. On the d-line, they have Kyle Vanden Bosch who enjoyed a breakout 2005 season. The linebackers have Keith Bullock and the newly added David Thornton to help stop the run and help out with pass coverage. The secondary will be greatly aided by the recently acquired Chris Hope. The offense may be good in the future with the draft picks of Young and White. However, right now the offense is, well, see below.
Weaknesses:
Most of this team is a weakness. The loss of Steve McNair paves the way for Billy Volek to take the starting job for now. Many people think Volek is a good quarterback, but, folks, there’s a reason why he’s been a backup QB his entire career. There are many issues surrounding his play. He has a weak arm and gets flustered under pressure, leading to interceptions. This could be very bad, because the o-line doesn’t look good either. They may be decent if new center Kevin Mawae can be at top form all season, but this is unlikely. The running back and receiver situations are questionable. The inconsistent duo of Chris Brown and Travis Henry will lead the backfield, while Drew Bennett and David Givens will lineup at wideout. While Givens is an upgrade over Tyrone Calico and Brandon Jones, he doesn’t make this a playoff-caliber team. The defense is also pretty weak. They have some good players, as mentioned before, but not much after that.
Prediction:
4-12, last in AFC South
Jeff Fisher has made some good moves in taking this team in the right direction in the future with his solid draft picks, but this year will be a mess. Hopefully, Fisher will be in Tennessee long enough to watch Young and White thrive in the NFL.
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Final Standings:
Indianspolis Colts 13-3
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7
Houston Texans 5-11
Tennessee Titans 4-12
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Stay tuned for the upcoming preview of the AFC West…
(Note: This article was originally written for The Bet Doctor.)