I used to be a Bill James guy. Not anymore.
Working in the front office for my beloved Red Sox, James, who is obsessed with signing guys with high on-base percentages, is a contributing factor to why, on April 10, the Red Sox led baseball in walks.
But James’s most famous contribution to baseball is his “sabermetrical” analysis, which has popularized the use of new statistics like such as OPS(on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) to determine player value. As James knows, statistics are part of what makes baseball great. Ask any hoop fan how many points Kareem scored, they could not do it. Ask any baseball fan how many home runs Hank Aaron hit, before you finished the question, they would tell you 755.
But at some point in the fantasy era, baseball stopped using stats to demonstrate a player’s greatness but to define it.
I realized this yesterday after reading an ESPN.com column arguing that Derrek Lee was a better player than David Ortiz. Okay, it is a valid debate, but was really upsetting was that the Worldwide Leader buttressed its argument by citing that Lee had more “win shares” than Ortiz.
What is a win share you ask? No one knows, except for Bill James, the statistic’s Thomas Edison. Hardballtimes.com graciously explains that “the win share methodology is extremely complex.” Technically, it is supposed to determine how many wins each player is worth, accounting for all offensive categories, defense, and even ball park size.
Amazing, win shares appears to be super-stat that can settle all debate over player value, leaving time-honored stats such as home run and RBIs to the unenlightened.
Doubtful. More likely is that player performance will be overshadowed by the legerdemain of graduate-level statistics. Take the Ortiz-Lee example. Both are paid to drive in runs, and by traditional accounts Ortiz is better because he had more home runs and Lee last year. But win shares account for defense which inherently hurts Ortiz’s case because he has no opportunity to play defense, and steals, which are irrelevant for sluggers. Seriously, when will Derrek Lee steal a base to win a game?
Win shares also purport to account for the size of a ballpark, as if that is only difference between two comparable hitters. Why not carry this idea out? We could account for the fact that one player played in the heat of pennant race while the other just played out the schedule, or the fact that one player faced a pitcher on a career day, the other player faced the same pitcher the night after his bachelor party.
Obviously, that’s impossible. At some point, baseball fans must rely on watching games and not calculators to determine how good a player really is.
After all, even Bill James can’t concoct a statistic that measures Ortiz’s uplifting all of New England with a reminisce-to-the-grandkids performance in the 2004 ALCS.
Until he can, I am not a Bill James guy.
4 replies on “Fed up with stats”
Nice Good article. I like all the Bill James stuff but just for fantasy baseball. Otherwise, it’s all another language to me. Another thing that you can take into account when comparing Ortiz and Lee: Lee may be more versatile because he is faster and plays defense, but that doesn’t make him a better player than Ortiz. There are so many different purposes and roles that players have to fill, it’s hard to compare a DH from and AL, playoff team to a 1B from an NL, non-contending team.
Also, Lee doesn’t have nearly the supporting cast that Ortiz does. I bet if Lee was on the Sox and Ortiz was on the Cubs, Ortiz’s stats would shine even brighter, and Lee’s would just be good. Of course, I can’t compare that because it’s so subjective! Basically, it’s impossible to use statistics to determine who is a better player than another.
stats stats can’t measure clutch which Ortiz has a lot of. He’s the second coming of Mr. October and Sawks fans should be very thankful. His performance in the 2004 ALCS was magical.
What ever happened to What ever happened to just watching a guy play and judging his talent from that?
laziness people just started to get lazy and stopped watching as many games