2006 NFL Draft Top 10: what the Insiders are missing

I need more NFL Draft analysis like Mel Kiper, Jr. needs another can of Suave Super Hold Shaping Spray.

ESPN, SI, TSN.

Cold Pizza, Rick Reilly and all “the insiders.”

Wonderlics, trendy picks and free-agent quarterbacks re-writing the April 29-30 NFL Draft in the time it takes Manny Ramirez to tie his shoes; they’re velcro.

All the buzz, from Houston (first overall) to Mr. Irrelevant exists because many of the big ticket names have glaring holes in their respective games.

This ten player list is a compilation of various scouting services’ NFL Draft prospect ratings.

Ohio State linebacker A.J. Hawk and Texas safety Michael Huff do not make this list. (And Oregon DT Haloti Ngata has solidified his standing as the Draft’s top interior d-lineman.) The only question(s) about Hawk and Huff are where they’ll play and how much their stock is affected by the dominoes of the following:

1) Reggie Bush, RB, USC

Heisman Trophy. Newly minted people’s champ. PlayStation-esque (and NCAA record) 8.9 yards per carry, 2,890 all-purpose yards and 19 touchdowns in 2005.

But there’s a reason he was on the sideline on fourth down in the Rose Bowl: dude hasn’t proved he can run between the tackles.

In The League, everyone can run.

And you know Gary Kubiak’s already designing plays for him in space, but before any more Barry Sanders/Gale Sayers/Marshall Faulk comparisons are made, Bush needs to channel his inner-Cadillac Williams and prove he can get you tough yards.

Slasher beware: at a tapered 201 pounds, Bush is even more likely to join the high-cut, 217-pound Williams (who missed significant parts of 2005) on the injured list.

2) Mario Williams, DE, NC State

Think Superman.

Then see a bigger, faster version of Carolina’s All-Pro, Julius Peppers. 6’7″ (and plays even longer) and a shredded 295 pounds. Runs in the 4.6 range. The definition of speed-rushing, game-changing defensive end.

But there’s a reason Maryland’s D’Qwell Jackson, BC’s Matthias Kiwanuka and Virginia’s Darryl Tapp finished ahead of him in the race for 2005 ACC Defensive Player of the Year: dude coasts on his athletic ability.

Plays high (see: slow, soft) against the run.

Is he the next LT/Dwight Freeney off the edge? Or is he destined to be included in the long list of insanely gifted defensive lineman whose vertical jump is the apex of their potential (paging: Courtney Brown)?

3) Matt Leinart, QB, USC

The left-handed Joe Montana of college football: highly accurate passer who lives for pressure (hello: 4th and a dynasty in South Bend).

Ditto for southpaw Peyton Manning comparisons: 37-2 as a starter (plus Peyton’s lost Heisman in 2004) who spent almost as much time in the film room as Pete Carroll in 2005, courtesy of his ballroom dancing curricula.

But unfortunately, he’s about as athletic as Manning with increasing doubts about his true arm strength. (USC’s West Coast hybrid involved a plethora of hitches and screens.)

And even at the circus formerly known as USC Pro Day, Leinhart left doubts with many scouts despite playing pitch and catch in his own backyard.

The mind-numbing guaranteed money given to Drew Brees by the Saints, coupled with Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler’s meteoric rise in the wake of a lights-out week at the Senior Bowl and a solid showing at the NFL Combine further cloud the picture.

4) D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OL, Virginia

Clear-cut No.1 offensive lineman in the draft with potential to be top overall pick.

Long, lean and athletic. Elite pass blocker. Runs fast (as quick as 5.08), jumps far (8’11” broad) and high (30 inch vertical). Made more than 40 consecutive starts before a knee injury cost him two games in 2005.

But the All-American had to put on more than 30 pounds during his time at Virginia before packing on the pounds like a pregnant Britney Spears in the month leading up to the Indianapolis meat market.

And even hitting the scales at 312, questions surround his narrow build and lack of true people-moving capacity.

5) Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland

Under Armour University had Davis in mind when they released their tight-fitting shirts.

Nobody passes the “pads test” like Davis; no one looks better on or off the field than this guy.

In the weight room, the 6’3″ 239 pound tight end broke every Maryland record. With a vert in the mid-40s and a 40 time approaching 4.4 seconds, he also defines game-breaking talent.

But Davis is not a crisp route-runner, nor has he proved an able run blocker.

Pad level and discipline appear to be small prices to pay/teach as he evokes incessant comparisons to San Diego’s Antonio Gates.

6) Winston Justive, OL, USC

At 6’6″ plus and approaching 320 pounds, this athletic tackle paved the rushing lanes for USC’s Thunder and Lightning ground attack. What’s more, he was entrusted to protect Leinhart’s blind side. Has run in the 5.1 range consistently and displayed his raw athleticism at USC’s Pro Day.

Justice’s stock has skyrocketed since USC’s magical run ended in the Rose Bowl, and his Pro Day workout(s) nudged him ever-closer to challenging Ferguson for the Draft’s top tackle spot.

But his (immature) character and off-field incident report (think: Vick, Marcus) gives many War Room strategists pause.

7) Vince Young, QB, Texas

How the immortal has fallen.

After Young almost single-handedly hooked the Trojans in Pasadena, few questioned his turning pro.

Since that moment, every move Young has made (or refused) has been scrutinized.

From his choice of agent to workouts (see: ESPN’s glorified hula-hoop contest) to matching Cutler’s jersey number (6) on his first snap under the weight of the Wonderlic, Young has done more to hurt his stock than any player this side of USC’s LenDale White.

And while no one can question his 467-yard effort in the National Championship game, Young has gone from the next Michael Vick to hearing whispers about changing positions in the pros.

8) Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt

His college numbers don’t matter.

Anyone who watched Cutler play at Vanderbilt knows he was rolling with third-tier talent; he was the singular reason to watch, root or hope for the Commodores over the past four years.

For that and his Brett Favre-like gunslinger’s mentality, Cutler has reaped the rewards heading into the draft.

But while no one can question his arm (or surprising athleticism), how many dropped balls or bad losses before he reverts to his college mechanics and starts forcing throws?

Can the kid from Santa Claus, IN, who played with the luxury of having nothing to lose in his college career win big at the next level?

9) DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis

Incomparable number(s): NCAA’s all-time leader in all-purpose yards from scrimmage (7,337), including 6,026 rushing yards (4th all-time) and 55 touchdowns. Topped the 100 yard plateau 34 times, another NCAA record. Capable receiver also added 70 receptions.

Clocked a 4.38 40 time at Memphis’ Pro Day and by many accounts, plays faster.

But any questions about Bush’s durability quadruple with Williams.

His sophomore season ended with a torn MCL; ditto for his junior year and a broken leg.

Was also robbed of playing against a top-flight defense when he decided not to play against Tennessee in 2005 (again: injury-related).

At 5’8″ and 217 pounds, Williams’ body absorbed more than 1,000 touches in his career.

Adding to his plight, the NFL’s free-agent market sent Chester Taylor to Minnesota and Edgerrin James to Arizona, two teams formerly high on tailbacks in the first round.

10) Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State

After shredding Notre Dame’s defense for 124 yards on 5 catches (including an 85-yard touchdown) in the Fiesta Bowl, Holmes was easily the first receiver off the board in a weak class.

An explosive and highly productive threat in the sniper scope of Ohio State’s ultra-conservative offense, Holmes averaged 16.4 yards per catch and posted 18 touchdowns on 140 career catches.

With his top-end sprinter’s speed (4.3 40), he could also serve as an electrifying return man.

But his lack of size (5’10” plus, 185 pounds) combined with the rave reviews Florida’s Chad Jackson received at Indianapolis (4.32 40 to go with 88 catches in 2005) might push Holmes from the top 10 to the bottom of the first round.