2006 Baseball Predictions

Baseball’s offseason this year was overshadowed by Barry Bonds, the Game of Shadows, and the forthcoming steroid investigation. That’s a shame, because there are a lot of other interesting stories heading into this baseball season. The White Sox appear to have a good chance at becoming the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees dynasty ended in 2000. In speaking of the Yankees, they signed star outfielder Johnny Damon from the Red Sox, giving them a shot at the title. And in the NL, can anyone top the Braves and Cardinals from repeating again as division champions? Here are my team and individual predictions for the 2006 MLB season.    NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals–What’s not to like about Pujols as he tries to defend his MVP crown this year? He is probably the most consistent player in baseball, with at least 40 homers, 115 RBIs, and a .330 average each of the past three seasons. He has set multiple records already in his career. Though the Cardinals would be loaded even without him, he elevates the team from a playoff contender to a World Series contender every year. Pujols isn’t just one of the best players today–he is a future Hall of Famer. In an NL which somewhat lacks offensive superstars, Pujols is an automatic choice if he continues to put up outstanding numbers.

    AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero, LA Angels–After winning the AL MVP in 2004, Guerrero had an “off year” in 2005 and was hampered by injuries. Of course, his down year still resulted in a .317 average with 32 homers and 108 RBIs. I’ll just put it this way: when Guerrero is playing in peak form, he is the best all-around player in the big leagues. Vlad can hit for average (career .324 hitter), power (305 homers, 38 per season), and can even steal bases (40 swipes in ’02). Without him, the Angels would lack power in their lineup and probably would not have won the AL West every year since acquiring Guerrero. While he may be challenged for the title by A-Rod and others, I think Vlad can still have an MVP- level season.

    NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros–Oswalt has had two fantastic seasons in a row, but they have been spent in teammate Roger Clemens’ shadow. Now that Clemens probably won’t be on the Astros (at least for a while), Oswalt is ready for his breakout season. So far in his five-year career in Houston, he has logged an impressive 3.07 ERA, including a 2.94 mark last year. He has put up two 20-win seasons in a row, and has an excellent strikeout/9 innings ratio of 7.80 for his career. This year, his numbers will be even better, as he will ride his dominating fastball and curveball to around a 2.50 ERA. In an NL filled with pitching questions, Oswalt appears to be at least one answer.

    AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Minnesota Twins–Alright, I know Santana isn’t exactly an interesting or original prediction for this award. But he is probably the best pitcher in the game today, and it would be hard to justify any other pick. After a Cy Young 2004 campaign that was untouchable, Santana wasn’t really considered for the award in an “off year” in 2005. Oh yeah, he still logged a second-in-AL ERA of 2.87, 238 strikeouts, and a .210 average against. When that is considered a down year, you know you’re pretty good. And at the age of 27, Santana seems poised to put up career best numbers. I would expect about a 2.45 ERA, 20 wins, and at least 250 strikeouts from Santana this year. The Twins have almost no shot at the playoffs due to their awful lineup, but Santana will get them as many wins as he can.

    NL Comeback Player of the Year: Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals–Rolen followed a career year in 2004 with an injury-plagued 2005. But if he doesn’t have any serious problems with his shoulder, Rolen should put up numbers similar to his .314 average, 34 homers, and 124 RBIs in 2004. He is protected in the lineup unlike any other player, with Pujols and Jim Edmonds surrounding the usual cleanup hitter. Not only will he continue to be an excellent hitter, but Rolen also is a stud at third base, with multiple Gold Glove awards in his career. All in all, Rolen will rebound from a limited 2005 year into the great player he usually is.

    AL Comeback Player: Curt Shilling, Boston Red Sox–Shilling was limited to just 93 innings last year in a closing role due to injury. He wasn’t the dominating reliever that many expected him to be, but he was really playing through pain. Though he is 39 this year, Shilling will likely be able to be the ace the Red Sox sorely need. If he can stay away from injury, expect Shilling to post about 15-20 wins and an ERA in the low 3’s.

    NL Home Run Leader: Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves–Expect this race to be between the same three players it was last year: Jones, Pujols, and Derrek Lee of the Cubs. Many believe Jones will not repeat his title from last year, when he led the NL with 51. Those people evidently did not see Jones play last year. He was flat out dominant on a team that lacked many of their best hitters due to injury. From June on, Jones carried the team on his back, hitting homer after homer. And he’s only 29 years old; definitely the prime of his career. Look for the home run race to be tight, but Jones will come out on top yet again.

    AL Home Run Champion: Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers–He has only been in the majors for three full seasons, and every year his numbers have risen significantly. Why would he stop now? He mashed 43 homers and 143 RBIs last year, and plays in one of the majors’ most loaded lineups. One of the youngest stars in the game, Teixeira still has a lot of room for improvement. Expect him to top the 50-homerun plateau in 2006.

    NL Batting Champion: Pujols, Cardinals–He’s a very easy pick for batting champ. His career average is .332, and he is the most consistent hitter in today’s game. Pujols could even match his 2003 average of .359 this year.

    AL Batting Champion: Michael Young, Texas Rangers–Another Texas infielder makes the list. Young is 29 years old and has improved his batting average each year of his 6-year career. Last year he won the batting title with an impressive .331, and he will bring his average up even more this year.

    NL Division Winners: Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, and Los Angeles Dodgers–These are repeat winners from last year expect the Dodgers. Atlanta adds Edgar Renteria to their lineup and hopefully won’t be as plagued by injury as they were last season. The Braves’ bullpen is a problem, as they lost their best reliever, Kyle Farnsworth, to the Yankees. But the Braves seem to have a problem every year, yet they always wind up playing in October. The Cardinals have made the NLCS for two straight years, and they will continue that streak this year. All of the Cards’ key players return this season. The Dodgers have disappointed year in and year out, but they have some new additions that will help them win the weak NL West. Rafael Furcal, Bill Mueller, and Nomar Garciaparra are all added to bolster LA’s usually weak lineup. Their pitchers look strong as well, with Eric Gagne returning from the DL to his usual closing role.

    AL Division Winners: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, and LA Angels–Each of these three teams win their divisions last year and will repeat again this year. The Yankees add Johnny Damon to what is becoming a legendary lineup. Their starting pitching needs to improve, but if Randy Johnson is back to his usual form it won’t be a problem. They will top 100 wins easily this year. The White Sox were World Champions last year will roll through their division this year. They added Jim Thome to their lineup, hoping he will return to All Star form. Their rotation is balanced enough to lead the AL in ERA. As for the Angels, their lineup will be pretty good this year with speedster Chone Figgins, Vlad Guererro, and cleanup hitter Garrett Anderson topping the order. Pitching has never been an issue for this team, and ace Bartolo Colon and stud closer Francisco Rodriguez both return this year.

    Wild Cards: New York Mets, NL, and Boston Red Sox, AL–The Red Sox have won the Wild Card for something like a billion years in a row. Despite losing Johnny Damon, they should have no trouble topping 90 wins this year. The Mets have an excellent lineup on paper with Carlos Delgado joining David Wright and Carlos Beltran in the middle of the order. Their starting pitchers need help besides Pedro Martinez, but their bullpen is now anchored by Billy Wagner, a flamethrowing closer.

    World Series: Yankees over Cardinals–The Yanks are just too loaded this year to not consider them the favorites. Their prospective top of the order is Damon, Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui. That is unbeatable, folks. They will face the White Sox in the ALCS and top them in seven games, then beat the Cardinals in six. While New York’s pitching is nothing to praise, their rotation and bullpen features many guys that have been here before and know what it takes to be World Champions. It won’t be easy, but the Yankees will win their first title since 2000.

    Post a comment or email me if you disagree with my picks. Sources: ESPN.com.