2006 MLB Predictions: American League

The 2006 Major League Baseball season is finally upon us. The front offices have stopped worrying about signing that key free agent or making that blockbuster trade. Now, they are just focused on spring training and preparing their teams to make a run at the playoffs. Who will take the division titles? The pennants? Who will be visiting the White House next year?

For answers to these questions, look no further, because I have them. Here are my predictions and analysis for the 2006 Major League Baseball season, American League version.

*Denotes my wild-card prediction

— Rosters current as of 3/20/06

American League West

Analysis: The Angels have won the American League West two years running, and look to stay on top with a stronger, younger team. The only moves of any significance the Angels made this offseason were getting Jeff Weaver and trading mega-bust outfielder Steve Finley to the Giants for even-bigger-bust-to-be Edgardo Alfonzo. Weaver should complement the rotation nicely, fitting in with the 2005 American League Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and Ervin Santana. This is a solid rotation, and if Santana and Weaver perform consistently, the Angels should have a rotation that will perform just as well, if not better, than their division rivals in Oakland. The Angels’ bullpen is usually very consistent, and once they take a lead into the 8th inning, you can forget about making a comeback. Scot Shields and super closer Francisco Rodriguez anchor this stellar relief corps, with the talent of Brendan Donnelly and ex-Twin J.C. Romero in front of them.

Around the infield, the Angels boast the young Casey Kotchman at first, Adam Kennedy at second, Orlando Cabrera at shortstop, and Alfonzo at third. Alfonzo is on a very short leash though, because top prospect Dallas McPherson is waiting eagerly for his chance to play on the big league club. Don’t be surprised if Alfonzo lets down and you see McPherson bust onto the scene. The Angels also have Maicer Izturis and Kendry Morales to play in the infield, guys they are very high on. The starting catcher this year will be Jeff Mathis, an untested 23-year old rookie, who has seen 3 major league at-bats in his career, and is getting to play based on talent and potential alone. He gets the nod over Jose Molina, brother of Bengie Molina, who departed as a free agent and signed with Toronto in the offseason. Jose will be a solid backup and will be right there if Mathis falters.

The outfield consists of 2004 American League MVP Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson, and Juan Rivera. Darrin Erstad will see playing time, and any of these four could play DH when needed.  I expect Kotchman to have a breakout year offensively, and for the starting pitching to carry the Angels through the season, keeping them in contention the whole way.

Oakland Athletics:

Analysis: For the first time in Billy Beane’s general managing career with the A’s, he was able to spend money instead of conserve it this offseason. He took advantage of that opportunity by signing free agents Esteban Loaiza and Frank Thomas and trading for Milton Bradley. Loaiza will join Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Danny Haren, and Joe Blanton in the starting rotation; a rotation that will be very good and very effective, unless Harden is hit with the injury bug again. The bullpen will be solid as usual, anchored by young closer Huston Street, the reigning American League Rookie of the Year.

Bradley and Thomas will add a lot of pop to the lineup, although the A’s already had a potent offense. Thomas will bring leadership and experience to the young corps of talent the A’s have built their program around. The infield will be comprised of Dan Johnson at first, Mark Ellis at second, Bobby Crosby at shortstop, and Eric Chavez, winner of five straight gold gloves, at third. If this is the first year that Crosby and Ellis can play together without injuries, it will be a top-notch middle infield defensively. Fortunately, if either of them happened to get injured again, the A’s have a very versatile backup in Antonio Perez, who came over from the Dodgers in the Bradley trade. Catcher Jason Kendall will aim to rebound from last year’s disappointing debut with the A’s, in which he hit .271, the second lowest average of his career. Now that he has gotten comfortable with the A’s pitching staff, he should be able to focus on his hitting more and be an effective leadoff man like he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates for so many years.

In the outfield, Bradley, Nick Swisher and Mark Kotsay figure to be the starters, with Jay Payton getting plenty of playing time as a backup. The biggest addition of the offseason, Thomas, is still recovering from an ankle injury that prevented him from playing a lot the past two seasons. But, according to early reports he is recovering quickly and should be able to be that powerful right-handed hitter behind Chavez that Beane has coveted the past few years. If Thomas is healthy enough to even play 120 games, the A’s are going to get a significant offensive increase from him, which should be more than enough to keep them in the hunt for the playoffs.

Seattle Mariners:

Analysis: The Mariners thought they were going to make a run last year by signing marquee free agents Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. Unfortunately, Beltre was a huge bust and Sexson couldn’t carry the M’s on power alone. This year, Seattle will be a cellar-dwelling snoozer of a team. Their infield consists of Sexson at first and Beltre at third, and any combination of Yuniesky Betancourt (try saying his name five times fast), Willie Bloomquist, Mike Morse, and Jose Lopez in the middle infield. It doesn’t matter what combination they throw out there, they won’t perform nearly well enough to contend. The catcher they’re banking on, and their biggest offseason acquisition is Kenji Johjima, a star in Japan. With no experience in the American majors, Johjima can’t be expected to perform at a rate parallel to that of other top catchers. But, teammate Ichiro Suzuki should ease Johjima’s transition and take pressure off of the 30-year-old “rookie”. In the outfield, Seattle will start Raul Ibanez, Jeremy Reed, and Ichiro from left to right. The steroid-abusing Matt Lawton will be a good enough backup for them, and can also DH. The starting DH though, will be the well-traveled Carl Everett. Though he’s still got some pop left in his bat, he won’t be a great help to the Mariners’ offense.

The pitching staff is anchored by the ancient ace Jamie Moyer. Now 43 years old, Moyer is still quietly mowing down opposing batters and remains a bright spot of the Seattle pitching staff. Joining Moyer in the starting rotation will be Joel Piniero, Gil Meche, ex-Angel Jarrod Washburn, and the young phenom Felix Hernandez. Eddie Guardado will sufficiently anchor the bullpen and should compile about 35 saves again this year. Hopefully, the Mariners are building up their farm system, because at the rate they’re going and the way their division opponents are just getting better, they won’t see the postseason for a long time.

Texas Rangers:

Analysis: The Rangers have one of the most powerful offenses in all of baseball. Their infield has future-MVP Mark Teixeira at first, rookie Ian Kinsler replacing Alfonso Soriano at second, Michael Young at shortstop, and slugger Hank Blalock at third. Injury insurance is always available for the Rangers with fill-in extraordinaire Mark DeRosa able to play any position but catcher. Teixeira, Blalock, and Young will power the Rangers along with newly-acquired DH Phil Nevin and catcher Rod Barajas. The outfield has a few good players, but nobody that really stands out. Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, Gary Matthews, Jason Botts, and David Dellucci will all get playing time at two of the outfield spots not occupied by Brad Wilkerson who was obtained in the Soriano trade to the Nationals.

The pitching staff is where the Rangers will be too weak to reach the playoffs. Free agent Kevin Millwood signed with them in the offseason, but don’t expect him to lead the American League in ERA like he did last year. Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Adam Eaton will be adequate enough and an improvement over last year’s starting rotation. But, the Rangers are so short-handed with starting pitching that I can’t even begin to formulate a guess as to who their fourth and fifth starters will be.

The only guys I’ve even heard of in their bullpen are named Francisco. Their closer Francisco Cordero is a stellar pitcher and will be a strong anchor to the bullpen. The only reason I’ve heard of the other Francisco is because Frank Francisco threw a folding chair into the stands two years ago in Oakland. I’m just kidding of course; I’ve heard of a few of the other relievers but they are all just ordinary, like John Wasdin, Kameron Loe, and R.A. Dickey. The Rangers will survive the summer with their blistering offense, but the pitching won’t hold up long enough for them to make a run into September and October.

Predictions:

1. Oakland Athletics
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

American League Central

Chicago White Sox:

Analysis: The White Sox are the defending world champions and look to come back just as strong, if not better than last year. I’m not sold on the trade of Aaron Rowand to the Phillies for Jim Thome, but if Thome is healthy he is capable of putting up potent power numbers to complement Paul Konerko in the heart of the order. Rowand was a good centerfielder, but the Sox are high on Brian Anderson, a young prospect who will fill Rowand’s role. Thome comes in to DH in Carl Everett’s old spot, and Frank Thomas is gone for good. Jermaine Dye and Scott Podsednik will be the corner outfielders around Anderson this year. Dye had a pretty good season last year, including winning the World Series MVP award, but he is inconsistent offensively so he’s not someone they can count on. Podsednik is a strong leadoff hitter and a speed demon on the base paths. Look for him to steal another 50 or 60 bags this year.

The White Sox infield will be back intact and exactly identical to last year’s: Konerko at first, Tadahito Iguchi at second, Juan Uribe at shortstop, and Joe Crede at third. Looking at those names, I’m not sure how this team managed to win the World Series last year. Konerko is the only really good hitter from last year, and the rest are just decent players. Also returning will be catcher A.J. Pierzynski, a common clubhouse cancer who managed to stay out of trouble and gel into the Chicago atmosphere nicely last year. He was also praised for his expertise in handling the pitching staff. Yes, the pitching staff, the reason Chicago won it all last year.

There isn’t one solid ace on the team, just five or six very good pitchers. Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia, and Javier Vasquez, who came over in a trade for Orlando Hernandez from the Diamondbacks, figure to make up the starting rotation. Youngster Brandon McCarthy could also fight for a spot in the rotation, but any of these six would make solid starters. Bobby Jenks, a rookie last year, was the flame-throwing closer in the playoffs for the Sox, but we’ll have to see how he handles an entire season before we can declare him the closer for good. There is also Dustin Hermanson and McCarthy to close if needed. The White Sox return just as strong last year, but I don’t think they will surprise anyone anymore, so while I think a run at the playoffs is obvious, I’m not sure if they will actually be able to squeeze into the postseason or not. (I should get extra votes for analyzing the White Sox without once mentioning manager Ozzie Guillen, who seems to get more attention than the rest of the team combined.)

Cleveland Indians:

Analysis: The Indians were the surprise team last year, playing strong during the regular season, and then almost overtaking the White Sox for the division title in the final week. This team is absolutely stacked with talent and has a good balance of young, enthusiastic, up-and-coming stars, and experienced veterans to lead the team. First of all, the Indians infield is extremely strong, except for third base. Ben Broussard will play first, Ronnie Belliard and his magic glove will play second, Jhonny Peralta will start at shortstop, but he won’t be surprising anyone anymore after last year’s solid season. Third base is Cleveland’s weakest link, with the oft-injured, underperforming Aaron Boone slated to start there. They acquired top prospect Andy Marte in a trade to back up Boone, and in my opinion, we’ll see Marte in the starting lineup by June. Another great young player is their catcher, Victor Martinez. He has already proven that he is a great hitter and has established himself as a premier catcher in the league, but I think he still has untapped potential, and this year will be a huge offensive breakout year for Martinez.

With all these offensive juggernauts in their infield alone, the Indians could make a run at the division title. But just to make it more difficult for their A.L. opponents, Travis Hafner will be their starting DH. In 2004 and 2005, Hafner combined to hit .308, hit 61 home runs, drive 217 runs, score 190 times, and his slugging percentage was just south of .600. That’s power and consistency for you. The Indians are shaping up to be one of the top contenders in the American League this season, and I haven’t even gotten to the outfield or pitching yet! The outfield will consist of Jason Michaels, Casey Blake, and Grady Sizemore. Sizemore is one of my favorite players in the game. He brings a strong bat, solid defense, and a lot of hustle to the team, and the kid is only 23 years old. The Indians’ lineup of Sizemore, Belliard, Peralta, Martinez, and Hafner will decimate opposing pitchers this year, and the best part is, they will just continue to get better (Out of those 5, Belliard is the grizzly veteran at the ripe old age of 31). This lineup, if kept together, will be one to fear for years to come.

The Cleveland pitching staff isn’t too shabby either. They lost last year’s American League ERA leader in Kevin Millwood, but they retained C.C. Sabathia (15 wins last year), Cliff Lee (18), and Jake Westbrook (15), and signed Jason Johnson and Paul Byrd to fill the other two spots. They signed Guillermo Mota to pitch out of the bullpen, along with last year’s closer Bob Wickman. The Indians must be making George Steinbrenner, Billy Beane, and other A.L. GM’s hearts fill with fear. Look for the Indians to be a sure bet for the playoffs; the question is, how far will they go?

Detroit Tigers:

Analysis: Detroit has slowly been developing into a very good baseball team. Unfortunately, the White Sox and Indians have been developing into even better teams at faster rates. This year though, you should see the Tigers finish better than fourth or fifth, and even stay in the wild card hunt into September. Their biggest star is catcher Ivan Rodriguez, who consistently puts up strong offensive numbers, and is also one of the top-notch defensive catchers to ever play (.990 career fielding percentage). Built around Rodriguez are first baseman Carlos Pena, second baseman Placido Polanco, shortstop Carlos Guillen, and third baseman Brandon Inge. They have two versatile backups in Omar Infante and Chris Shelton as well. Polanco was a great mid-season transition for the Tigers last year, as he hit .338 and only committed 3 errors in 86 games. Guillen had a career year in 2004 and was injured for more than half of last year. While I don’t expect to see 2004-esque numbers from Guillen ever again, he should be a consistent hitter, with an average hovering around .300 at the top of the lineup.

Across the outfield the Tigers will start Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, and Nook Logan. Their DH is Dmitri Young. Now, I have a suggestion for the Detroit management. You have outfielders Craig Monroe and Marcus Thames backing up the starting three, yet they are definitely deserving of a starting spot. On the other hand, Young doesn’t bring a lot of talent to the table like he used to. Monroe, Thames, and Ordonez should be rotating between DH and right field, with Ordonez never on the bench if they can help it. The Tigers have a lot of talented position players right now, they just have to put it all together for one full season to make a run at the playoffs. I think it might still be too soon with the youth on their team, and the absence of one more starting pitcher.

Speaking of the pitching, the Tigers return Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, and Nate Robertson from last year. Bonderman and Maroth are solid, and Robertson has a lot of potential. If the offense can produce a little better than last year, they will have much better numbers this year. The Tigers also took a chance on troubled veteran Kenny Rogers. Rogers is a good starter who will be a good mentor to the other, younger pitchers. Well, as long as no cameramen are around. Detroit also signed closer Todd Jones in the offseason, to make up for the struggles and injuries of Troy Percival last year. Jones only has one year of closing under his belt, but is a nasty pitcher and should be adequate for the Tigers. Give them one or two more years, and one big free agent starting pitcher, and the Tigers will be clawing their way into October.

Kansas City Royals:

Analysis: Oh, the train wreck that is the Kansas City Royals. Poor Mike Sweeney. It pains me to write about and analyze a bunch of misfits like this, so I’ll make it short and sweet. John Buck will start at catcher, Mike Sweeney at first, Mark Grudzielanek at second, and Angel Berroa at shortstop. As for third base, I’ll put on a blindfold and pick a name out of a hat. Looks like Mark Teahen. Who? Anyway, in the outfield, journeyman Reggie Sanders will be the only recognizable player, alongside guys like Chip Ambres, Emil Brown, and Aaron Guiel. Matt Stairs (yeah, he’s still playing…) will most likely be the DH. Pitching-wise, the Royals will have Runelvys Hernandez, Joe Mays, Scott Elarton, Zack Grienke, and Mark Redman starting, and a lot of relievers to clean up whatever mess these starters make. Maybe if the Royals bring back George Brett they won’t finish in dead last.

Minnesota Twins:

Analysis: My favorite thing about the Twins is that they have a pitcher named Boof Bonser. That tops Coco Crisp for the coolest name in baseball. The entire five-man rotation from last year’s Twins team will be returning, led by ace Johan Santana. Following him will be Kyle Lohse, Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, and Francisco Liriano. It is sad to see the Twins on the decline, especially after dominating the division for so many years, and now they have a fresh crop of talent up that they will probably end up trading away to rebuild. Joe Nathan, the closer, will stay put though, along with Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain, who always seem to relieve effectively, and in the process pick up around 20 combined wins.

Around the outfield, Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart will be starting with Lew Ford and Jason Kubel fighting for playing time in the last spot, previously occupied by Jacque Jones (now a Chicago Cub). Hunter seems to be quickly crumbling, with injuries and age setting in. A couple bright spots for the Twins reside in the infield. Justin Morneau at first base and Joe Mauer behind the plate are two very good, up-and-coming hitters. I expect Mauer to break out offensively this year and Morneau will have a good season, but I think his big season will come in 2007. Unfortunately, I also think by the end of the 2007 season, neither of these bright young stars will be playing in Minnesota. For the rest of the infield, they have Jason Bartlett at shortstop and Michael Cuddyer at third base. They showed some signs of life of trying to keep up with Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit by signing Luis Castillo to play second base, but it won’t be nearly enough. I think this is the beginning of the end for the Twins. They are going to start going into rebuilding mode soon, and they will realize it as soon as they finish in fourth place this season. Boof Bonser. I love it.

Predictions:

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals

American League East:

Baltimore Orioles:

Analysis: The Orioles are an even worse train wreck than the Royals. Don’t get me wrong, they have a better team than the Royals, but they are just one screwed up franchise. It’s like watching a soap opera. First Rafael Palmeiro gets caught for steroids, then Sammy Sosa gets hurt and fails to produce, then Miguel Tejada demands a trade, and there was also the whole deal with Sidney Ponson. It’s ridiculous. If the Orioles could gel together as a team for once, they’d have a good program. They wouldn’t win in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox, but they’d at least be respectable.

They have ex-Padre Ramon Hernandez at catcher now, replacing Javy Lopez, who should DH. Kevin Millar will replace Palmeiro at first, Brian Roberts and Tejada will man the middle infield and do a hell of a job at it. Melvin Mora will be the starter at third base, but his career is declining. Millar is one of those guys that can hit big home runs and is a fun character, but isn’t really that good. The outfield will consist of Jay Gibbons, David Newhan, Luis Matos, and chronic underachieving, ex-Cub Corey Patterson. They also have a young guy, Nick Markakis, who they are pretty excited about. I think all five of these guys will see equal playing time for the Orioles this year. I also think none of them will have a very good season.

As for pitching, the Orioles improved drastically this offseason. I don’t even have to look at the pitchers they have to tell you that. It’s more the pitcher that they got rid of. King Ponson of Aruba or wherever he keeps getting drunk and thrown in jail is gone, and his untalented, overweight body went with him. Their rotation will be decent this year, with Rodrigo Lopez, Erik Bedard, and Daniel Cabrera anchoring the staff. These three are good, young pitchers and are only going to get better. Joining them will be Kris Benson (wasn’t he supposed to be GOOD?) and Bruce Chen. They also have the youngster Hayden Penn that will be throwing out of the bullpen, but could take over a starting spot if any of the starters falter or get injured. Also, with the loss of closer B.J. Ryan to free agency, the Orioles made the mistake that the Cubs and Giants have made before them. They signed LaTroy Hawkins to shut the door for them in the ninth. But as we all know, and as they should’ve learned by now, every time Hawkins tries to shut the door, it hits the stopper and flies wide open. I can’t envision the Orioles finishing any better than fourth, and I honestly think they are in danger of being passed by the Devil Rays in the standings.

Boston Red Sox:

Analysis: The Red Sox shook things up this offseason at every level, just two years removed from breaking one of the most famed curses in sports history. First of all, G.M. Theo Epstein walked out, resigning after last season. This shocked everyone because he had so much success already after just two years at his position. He eventually came back and decided to be part of the upper management again. Manny Ramirez made his annual plea to be traded, only to remain in Boston. They got Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in a trade with the Marlins, in which they gave up star prospect, shortstop Hanley Ramirez. They lost catcher Doug Mirabelli in a trade to the Padres, but in return, they got second baseman Mark Loretta. They traded inconsistent shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Braves for top prospect Andy Marte, who was then shipped off to the Indians for centerfielder Coco Crisp, who will fill the departed Johnny Damon’s spot. To fill in at shortstop, they brought in Alex Gonzalez, a shaky hitter, but a solid defender. They also signed free agent J.T. Snow to split time with Kevin Youkilis at first base.

So now, after this frenzy of change, the BoSox will start Manny, Crisp, and Trot Nixon from left to right in the outfield. Their starting infield will consist of Youkilis and Snow at first, Loretta and Alex Cora at second, Gonzalez at shortstop, and Lowell at third. Youkilis can also play third, and Cora can play pretty much anywhere. They will still have the team leader and captain Jason Varitek starting at catcher. They finally let Kevin Millar go, and although he brought a lot of character to the clubhouse, he was not talented enough. That character will be picked up by the always-smiling David “Big Papi” Ortiz, who will start at DH. In the rotation, it will be Curt Schilling, Beckett, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, and Matt Clement.

The Boston bullpen has improved dramatically since last year, as they have newcomers Jonathen Paplebon (who could contend for a starting spot), David Riske, Rudy Seanez, and Julian Tavarez, all excellent relievers who will complement the old faithfuls, Mike Timlin and Keith Foulke. Foulke will look to bounce back from a horrific 2005 season and be a top notch closer again. If not, there is always one of the other relievers, or Schilling to fill the closers role. If you are wondering why Bronson Arroyo is conspicuously missing from this list, it’s because he’s also been sent packing. The Sox sent Arroyo to Cincinnati for right fielder Wily Mo Pena, who will give them a lot of power from the right side and will be the starter in right against lefties, who Nixon struggles against. The Red Sox look strong once again and should take the race for the division title down to the wire.

New York Yankees:

Analysis: Doesn’t George Steinbrenner ever run out of money? The latest addition to his AL all-star team is centerfielder Johnny Damon, who comes over from the rival Red Sox. That was the only move of significance made by the Boss this offseason, but the Evil Empire is going to return even stronger for this year. Anyone who knows anything about baseball can probably recite the Yankees’ lineup from memory, so I’ll make this easy.

The Yankees will have Hideki Matsui, Damon, and Gary Sheffield from left to right in the outfield. They will start Jason Giambi at first base, Robinson Cano at second base, Derek Jeter at shortstop, and You Know Who at third base. Jorge Posada will be entering his 34th straight season as the Yankees’ starting catcher (or at least it seems like it), and Bernie Williams will be the starting DH. The only question mark for the Yankees this season will be the starting pitching. Randy Johnson will once again be the ace, though at age 42, he is losing his stature. Amazingly, he’s still one of the best pitchers around. Mike Mussina (yeah, he still plays too) will follow Johnson, along with Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and Shawn Chacon.

The bullpen is upgraded, with the additions of 17-million dollar setup man Kyle Farnsworth, injury-riddled Octavio Dotel, and Mike Myers. Aaron Small and Chien Mien-Wang, last year’s surprise star starters will be available out of the bullpen and to start if necessary. And of course, the best closer in the history of baseball, Mariano Rivera, will be in the bullpen, ready to shut the door in the ninth.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays:

Analysis: The Devil Rays are always last in their division and always one of the weakest teams in the majors. They also always have one of the lowest payrolls. I root for the Devil Rays every year because they develop good, young talent, but not only do they not have enough money to keep those developing stars, but they play in the best division in baseball. They routinely beat the Yankees head-to-head every year, but they are still the laughing stock of the division. This year, I will not be surprised if they Rays pass the Orioles, and finish in fourth instead of last, because they will bring out one of their strongest teams ever in 2006.

Travis Lee will play first base, Jorge Cantu will play second, Julio Lugo will play shortstop, and newly-acquired Sean Burroughs will play third base. They will have Toby Hall and Josh Paul splitting time at catcher, and sadly will not get adequate production from either of them. In the outfield, they will have one of the best young corps of talent in the entire league. Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, and Aubrey Huff will start, with Joey Gathright, Damon Hollins, and Delmon Young to back up. Jonny Gomes will DH, and don’t forget about top prospect B.J. Upton, who had a decent showing in his 45 career games prior to this year, but still has not broken out and has tremendous upside.

The Rays’ starting rotation will be Scott Kazmir, Mark Hendrickson, Edwin Jackson, Casey Fossum, and probably Doug Waechter. With the loss of closer Danys Baez to the Dodgers, the Devil Rays will bring out Chad Orvella to close games, and their bullpen looks to be just above average, with the likes of Dan Miceli, Chad Harville, and Seth McClung to name a few. Now don’t feel bad if you don’t know who any of the Tampa Bay players are because that is to be expected. But just look for some of these names to be making an impact elsewhere a few years down the road.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Analysis: The Blue Jays made a big splash this offseason by spending a lot of money on some big-name free agents. But while everyone is making a big deal about how improved they are and how good they are going to be, I don’t understand it. I think their offseason moves are extremely overrated and that by season’s end they will remind us eerily of the 2005 Orioles (without the Rafael Palmeiro steroid drama). They made news by signing A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan to be a solid #2 pitcher behind Roy Halladay, and to shut the door in the ninth, respectively. Now, their rotation consists of Halladay, Burnett, Ted Lilly, Josh Towers, and Gustavo Chacin. Besides Ryan in the bullpen their only significant names are Jason Frasor and Scott Schoeneweis. Now, while Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the majors when he’s healthy, and Lilly is always solid, Burnett has yet to prove himself (his career record is below .500), and Towers and Chacin do not have enough experience yet to make enough of an impact. Now the Blue Jays are in good shape if their starters can pitch eight innings every game to get to Ryan. But, if not, which is more likely, they will have some major problems with the middle relief.

Offensively, the Jays have upgraded from last year, but they are still nowhere near the level of the teams they are fighting for first in the division, the Yankees and Red Sox. They will have Lyle Overbay at fist base, Aaron Hill at second base, Russ Adams at shortstop, and Troy Glaus at third base. Glaus is a big power hitter who will be good for 40 home runs, but will he stay healthy? And you can’t tell me the guy isn’t overrated. In the outfield, they have a weak group of Frank Catalanotto, Reed Johnson, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios, who will all get a lot of playing time. Shea Hillenbrand will probably DH, with Eric Hinske seeing a decent amount of playing time there as well.

Their last big free agent acquisition came in the form of former Angel Bengie Molina. He’s a big free agent physically, but as for having an impact on the Blue Jays’ A.L. East fortunes, it will be small. He’s a good catcher and a good hitter, but it’s a miniscule addition. The Jays will disappoint this year and finish third again. I hope that you aren’t one of the unfortunate fans that will severely injure themselves falling off the Toronto bandwagon this year.

Predictions:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox*
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Stay tuned for my 2006 MLB Predictions: NL Version, coming in a week or two.