Yanks to End Drought in ’06?

The date is February 27, and that means baseball season is indeed upon us.  For lovers of the national pastime the long winter is finally over, and we can take solace in the fact that our teams are now engaging in full workouts.  It is shaping up to be a very entertaining 2006 season, but it may be hard to match the last few.  MLB’s parody has been incredible in recent years, with two ancient curses being broken with the last two World Series champions.  

However, all this parody has had George Steinbrenner bumming for the last few seasons.  Not since 2000 has his team won a title.  Even with his payroll reaching record amounts; it was approximately 205 million dollars in 2005, more than 80 million dollars higher than any other team. Yet George’s Yankees couldn’t even get to the World Series. They didn’t even get out of the first round!  With such a travesty at the end of the season, it was an oddly quiet offseason for Steinbrenner.  The only big-name change was the signing of Johnny Damon from the hated Red Sox.  People need to remember though that the Yanks won 95 games in 2005 and won the division for the 8th straight year, so one could argue that not many changes needed to be made.  
Even though the Yankees’ 2005 season could be deemed successful by most teams, it wasn’t for Steinbrenner.  For a team with a payroll over $200 million, nothing less than a championship is acceptable.  Luckily for George and Yankees fans, the 2006 season is looking good. Steinbrenner even went so far as to call a title this year.  “It’s been a while; we haven’t won it,” he said recently to reporters at the Spring Training facility in Tampa, FL.  “We’re going to win it this year. We’re going after them this year.”  A bold prediction by The Boss.  Can we really take him seriously?  Can the Yankees end their World Series drought in 2006?

Let’s take a look at the team:

The starting rotation looks to be very good on paper, but paper and the real world are two different things.  Randy Johnson will once again be the team’s ace.  Though he’s in his early 40s, he’s still got it.  The Big Unit went 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA last year and struck out 211 batters, not to mention a stellar 5-0 record vs. the Red Sox.  It was an off-year for him, but that’s a damn good year for most people.  

Then there’s Mike Mussina.  He’s been sliding in recent years, but he’s still a very good pitcher who can get the job done and will provide good veteran leadership.  Sophomore Chien-Ming Wang will look to improve on his excellent rookie season. He proves that the Yankees can still develop talent from their own system on occasion.  

There are four more starting pitchers that will be on the roster, and if the Yankees are smart they will all compete for the 4 and 5 slots in the rotation.  These guys are Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Shawn Chacon, and Aaron Small.  The first two are big-money busts from last season (which anyone with brains saw coming) and the latter two were huge surprises who were stellar down the stretch run for the Yanks.  Pavano and Wright will most definitely be looking to rebound from last season and show they belong, but I wouldn’t count on it.  Pavano has been playing in The Show since 1998, but only has 2 seasons where he’s pitched 200+ innings, and they were both in the pitcher-happy National League.  Jaret Wright’s even worse.  He’s been in the bigs since 1997, but has ZERO 200 inning seasons under his belt.  Not a good sign for New York fans.  Chacon and Small were pleasant surprises last year.  Small didn’t lose a decision, but won 10.  Chacon, a former starter-turned-closer in the Mile High City, came to New York and went 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 14 games, 12 of them starts.  Oh, and he only gave up 66 hits in 79 innings.  The starting staff is old but talented and should get the job done.  These last four guys should show us if Ron Guidry is cut out for the coaching world, since long-time pitching stalwart Mel Stottlemyre retired at the end of last season.  

The bullpen is one of the few areas of uncertainty on this team.  It will be mostly new faces in 2006 except Mariano Rivera and Tanyon Sturtze.  New additions include Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, and Ron Villone.  

Obviously, the closer won’t be an area of concern.  Rivera is the greatest closer of all time, and had arguably his best season in 2005: He went 7-4 with a career-low 1.38 ERA and 43 saves, while also striking out 80 in 78.1 innings and only giving up a ridiculous 50 hits.  There’s no reason to doubt him.  

The middle relief is the spot to be worried about.  Farnsworth had an outstanding year with the Braves and Tigers last year, appearing in 72 games and striking out 87 in 70 innings and giving up only 40 hits while maintaining a 2.19 earned run average.  An exceptional season, to say the least. But in his first season in New York, and being in the harder-hitting American League, you can expect his number to decline rather significantly.  In converting from the NL to AL, pitchers’ ERA’s drop at an average of a run and a half, which is huge.  So Yankees fans should be hopeful for Farnsworth, but be prepared for a less than spectacular season.  

After undergoing Tommy John surgery last June, Dotel is hoping to return by May.  He should be an excellent addition to the bullpen as long as he’s healthy.  He’s performed very well for the last few years (with Oakland).  He should be solid for the Yanks.  

Villone had a nice season for Seattle last season posting a record of 8-6 and an ERA just above 4. The Yankees are hoping he can provide the same production here in New York.  All in all, the bullpen looks talented, but somewhat thin and inexperienced as far as the big New York market goes.  The bridge to Rivera will once again be the weakest part of the Yankee team.  

The lineup for the Yankees looks downright nasty.  

Johnny Damon will lead off and play center field.  He’s obviously going to be used to the pressures of New York, since he played in Boston for 4 years and won a title.  Judging by his career totals, we should be able to expect at least a .290 batting average to go along with 10-15 HR and 70 or 80 RBI’s.  He’ll provide a nice pop at the top of the lineup.

Next will be the captain, shortstop Derek Jeter.  As one of the most famous players in the game today and a future hall-of-famer, not much needs to be said here.  Expect the usual things: high batting average, very good defense, clutch plays, leadership, and winning.

A-Rod will likely bat third, and again we have another player who needs no explanation.  He’s the best all-around player in the game and the reigning American League MVP.  When he’s done he’ll go down as one of the best ever.  He should bat .300, hit 40 homers, and drive in 120 runs while also scoring 120.  

Batting cleanup could be a number of players, but for now it’s Jason Giambi.  After an inspiring comeback year last season in which he hit 32 homers, Yankees fans are hoping he can return to 2000-2002 form.  His averages in those three seasons? A .330 batting average, a .463 on base percentage, 41 homers, and 126 RBI’s.  I would say it’d be very naïve to expect those sorts of numbers this season.  Here’s something a little more realistic: .280 BA, 30 homers and 90 runs batted in.  He should be a very good producer and will get on base very often.

Then you’ve got Gary Sheffield.  Sheff’s an outstanding player, one of the best of his time.  He’s getting old, though, and he gets cranky easily.  Still, that hasn’t stopped him from having two great seasons in New York so far.  We should be able to count on him for 30 homers and 100 RBI’s.  

Hideki Matsui should bat sixth, and in his 3 seasons in New York the Japanese import has not disappointed.  A very fundamentally sound player, Matsui should bat .300 while hitting 25-30 homers and driving in a 100 runs.

In the 7 hole is veteran catcher Jorge Posada.  His numbers have been declining in recent years, as he’s getting on in age, especially for a catcher.  He still produces well, and should bat .260 with 15-20 homers and 70 RBI’s, very good numbers for a catcher.  In addition, Posada provides a winning attitude and good clubhouse leadership.  

Batting 8th as the designated hitter, for sentimental reasons, is Bernie Williams.  He’s one of the most beloved Yankees of all time, not to mention one of the best.  The Yankees are hoping a reduced role will help Bernie produce on a more consistent basis.  His numbers won’t be great, but it’s no longer his skills that make him so valuable.  Williams is one of the greatest postseason players of all time, and has a ton of experience.  He’s also great in the clubhouse, and he should be a great influence when the Yankees go to the playoffs.  

Rounding out the lineup is 23-year-old second baseman Robinson Cano, one of the best rookies from last year.  Barring a sophomore slump, there is no reason Cano shouldn’t be even better this season.  He’ll provide good speed at the bottom of the lineup, and he’ll get plenty of opportunities to score.  

So can the Yankees end their drought?  They are clearly one of the favorites, but the defending champion White Sox look awfully strong, so don’t be surprised if they go deep again.  On paper, the 2006 Yankees look like a team primed for 110 wins and a sweep of the World Series.  But only so much can be measured by numbers in the game of baseball.  Even more success comes down to chemistry.  The 1998-2000 dynasty was not nearly as talented, but the chemistry was incredible and everyone gelled and wins were automatic.  Can these Yankees do what they did, even with all the superstars and egos?  Can they bring a World Championship back to the Bronx? Only time will tell.