Fearless Predictions for the 2006 NFL Season

The weeks following the end of the NFL season are some of the worst weeks of the year for football fans. Football fans like me now have to care about college basketball, the NBA, or hockey (great sports, but not exciting until their playoffs kick in). Since I don’t want to write about these sports, I’ll make 10 very early predictions for the 2006-2007 NFL season. 1.    The Houston Texans will select Vince Young with the first overall pick on the draft.

They have kind of verbally committed to Reggie Bush already, but I think they’ll take Young. Remember last year when it seemed as though San Fran would take Aaron Rodgers with the first overall pick? Bush obviously won’t fall down to pick 24 like Rodgers did unless he has some freak injury, but I think he’ll fall down to New Orleans at 2 or Tennessee at 3. Taking Young just makes more sense for the Texans because he’s from Houston, the team already has a capable running back in Domanick Davis, he is an exciting player that will draw fans into the stadium, and he has much better mobility than that of David Carr, which will allow him to avoid the sacks that have plagued the team for the past few years. Also, they’ll realize that Bush isn’t really an every down back and that the speed advantage that he had in college will decrease dramatically in the pros. They might just take Bush anyway, but I think that Young is the best overall quarterback prospect coming out of college since Carson Palmer and the most exciting since Michael Vick.

2. Some big-name running backs will be in different uniforms next season.

    This year, some of the best free-agent selections available are running backs, especially the Seahawks’ Shaun Alexander and the Colts’ Edgerrin James. While I think their teams should keep these running backs, I don’t think they will. Let’s start with Alexander. He just had one of the greatest individual seasons of all time (at least for his fantasy owners), so why is it even a question if Seattle will resign him? It’s all about the money. The Seahawks obviously love having Alexander, but I don’t think they want to pay him about $7 million a year on top of a huge signing bonus. They have to resign some other key players as well, especially at wide receiver. Also, Alexander is going into his seventh season, which is getting up there considering he is a running back. He has avoided injury his whole career, but that can’t last too much longer. Now let’s look at James. He has produced extremely well his entire career, and many of his teammates have said they want to keep him. So why will he be leaving Indy? Again, it comes down to the money. The Colts have recently signed Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison to huge deals, so they won’t be able to supply enough for another long term deal. And unlike Alexander, James has had an injury history that has caused him to miss a full season. Since these star backs won’t be resigned, where will they end up? Probably Minnesota, Carolina, or Arizona. Those teams can come up with a long term deal with enough money to make Alexander or James happy, and they all have been plagued with inconsistency at the running back position in recent years.    

3. The Seahawks will end the five-year streak of Super Bowl losers having a below .500 season the following year.

    Obviously, if the Seahawks keep Shaun Alexander, winning their division will not be hard. But even if they don’t, they are still loaded with weapons on offense (assuming they sign a receiver in the off season) and also have great talent on defense. Seattle’s conference and division are just too weak for them to not produce another playoff season next year. I don’t envision the 49ers, Cardinals, or Rams getting significantly better this off season. The Rams might beat them in St. Louis, but not on the road. No one can challenge the Seahawks at Qwest Field, the NFL’s ultimate home-field advantage. Overall, I don’t think Seattle will have another 13-win season, but they’ll certainly win the NFC West.

4. Carolina will have the best record in the NFC next year.

    Assuming, they can stay healthy, the Panthers can beat everybody in the NFC (except for the Seahawks at Qwest). Look for them to cruise through their division next year, as the Saints are in rebuilding mode under a new head coach, the Buccaneers peaked last season with their current crop of players, and the Falcons are too inconsistent for anyone to figure out. Jake Delhomme is a proven and competent quarterback, Steve Smith might be the best player in the NFL next year, and their defense will shut down opposing teams if Kris Jenkins and the gang avoid their injury problems that crippled them last year. If they can pick up another running back or if DeShaun Foster can avoid injury (which is like asking Eli Manning to consistently throw on-target passes), the Panthers will roll through the conference to Super Bowl XLI.

5. The Eagles will be much better next season.

    I’m not saying they’re going to win their division, which looks to be the toughest in the NFC next year. Just don’t expect them to go 6-10 again or to lose a game 42-0 at home. If Donovan McNabb can avoid injury, he is without question the best quarterback in the NFC. Though the team probably needs another receiver, McNabb has shown in the past that he can win without a great receiving threat. At running back, Brain Westbrook is the best pass-catching back in the NFL, and he can break some long runs every once in a while. They also have a strong offensive line and an up-and-coming tight end in LJ Smith. Obviously this team has some problems to solve (like how to replace TO on offense), but I expect them to go around 8-8 in a division race that will go down to the wire.

6. Chicago will regress next season.

    It seemed as though the Bears got every break possible during the 2005 season. If Joe Nedney had made that field goal so Nathan Vasher couldn’t return it for a touchdown, they would have lost to the 49ers. Though their defense will likely remain excellent in 2006, they won’t be near the almost record-breaking form they were last year. Brain Urlacher, the anchor of the defense, is suddenly getting older. I just don’t think it will be possible for them to allow 7 points per game at home again next year. Also, though Rex Grossman will keep getting better and will eventually be a star, the Bears lack a playmaking wide receiver unless they address this need in the off season. They just don’t have enough offense to compete again next year. Look for about a 7-9 record and for the Vikings to take the division at 9-7.

7. San Diego will finally put it all together next year.

    The Chargers confounded everyone last year. They won at New England and were the only team to beat Indianapolis at its full strength. But losses to Miami, Kansas City and others kept them out of the playoffs. I think they’ll figure out a way to be more consistent next year. Their offense will be outstanding. LT will probably have his peak season for his career, Drew Brees (if he can recover from his shoulder injury) will cut down on interceptions, and Antonio Gates has the potential to lead the entire NFL in TD catches. The defense will continue to be stifling against the run–look for them to repeat last season’s league low rushing yards allowed title. This is a team that can truly beat any opponent on any given date. If they can win close games next year, they’ll head to Miami to face Carolina in the Super Bowl. (You heard it here first)

8. The Bengals and Steelers will have the most entertaining division title race in years.

    I don’t remember the last time a divisional race was set up to be as great as this one is. This is actually developing into one of the league’s best rivalries. The key for the Bengals is if Carson Palmer can be back at full strength after that devastating knee injury against the Steelers. If he can recover, he has league MVP potential. If Palmer, Chad Johnson, and Rudi Johnson can all stay healthy, look for the Bengals to lead the league in points per game. On the Steelers side, they’ll be a top team once again if Big Ben can stay away from injury. They need to replace Jerome Bettis at short-yardage running back, but otherwise this team has no big needs. I don’t think they’ll repeat as Super Bowl champs, but they’ll obviously make the playoffs. Get ready, football fans–this divisional race will be one to remember.

9. Indianapolis will go 13-3, get a first round bye, and get eliminated in their first playoff game.

    Indy just seems like a team that is built to win in the regular season but not in the playoffs. They’ll always blow out opponents in about 6-8 games, win 5-6 more because of Peyton Manning’s heroics, then win their division and get a home playoff game. This has happened for three years straight now. For some reason, Manning & crew cannot perform well against a good defense in the playoffs. The last three opponents to beat them in the playoffs were the Patriots twice and the Steelers recently. All of those teams were defensive-oriented. Also, I think that if the Colts were to ever win a Super Bowl in the Manning Era, it would have been last year. They started out 13-0, and in none of those games were they even challenged. Their defense even played well for the majority of the year. It just seemed like everything was going their way and that they were destined to win a championship. Even in their playoff game against the Steelers, they got every chance to win they could have asked for: the overturned Polomalu interception, the Bettis fumble, and the field goal at the end. And yet they couldn’t come through. My point is, if Indianapolis couldn’t win a Super Bowl in 2006, they won’t win one in 2007.

10. If the Pats can avoid injury, watch out for them in the playoffs.

    The Patriots failed to win a Super Bowl for the first time since 2003 this past season. But don’t think that they will regress next year, because this team is built to win. If Corey Dillon and the receivers can stay healthy on offense, and the secondary gets some help, look for Tom Brady to lead this team back where it belongs–the Super Bowl. I don’t think that they necessarily will win the Super Bowl, but it would be foolish to rule them out of the race just because of one sub-par season.