The Super Bowl is over. We still have the Pro Bowl, but who can really get into that? The end of the football season means that the baseball season is upon us. Those of you fantasy owners know that baseball is probably the toughest of all fantasy sports. The long season will often take a painful toll own fantasy owners. It becomes difficult to keep up with all of the little changes that teams make over the 6 month season. In order to be a winning manager, you must stay active all season, make quality free agent pickups and trades, and keep track of match-ups your players will face. However, none of this will mean anything if you can’t draft the right players in the beginning. Fortunately for you, that’s what I’m here for.The following is a list of the players who should be chosen with the top 20 picks. After crunching the numbers on my scientific calculator, I’ve determined that this would also be equal to the first two rounds of a draft in a 10-team league.
1. Albert Pujols, 1B, StL: Many experts have said that Alex Rodriguez should be drafted number one, but I have to disagree. Albert Pujols is only 26-years-old, the perfect time for a baseball player to enter his prime. I believe Pujols still has his best years ahead of him and one of those “best years” will be 2006. I’m expecting somewhere around a .350 BA, 50 HR, 140 RBI, and 15 SB.
2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY: A-Rod will be the unquestioned #2 player in fantasy baseball in 2006. He’s in his prime at 30 years old and we will not see a drop off in his production. Take a look at A-Rod’s numbers from 2005 season and the only real difference in 2006 will be a more Rodriguez-like batting average around .300.
3. Vladimir Guerrero, OF, LAA: Expect Vlad to get back to his normal production after a somewhat disappointing 2005 season. However, don’t expect to get many steals out of him. He was slowed up last year by knee injuries and his declining numbers on the base paths will continue to head south.
4. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Tex: This guy is a rising star and he is rising rapidly. If you are drafting for a keeper league, take him with the third pick, ahead of Vlad. His numbers will continue to increase making him a great option at a very crowded position.
5. Derrek Lee, 1B, ChC: This guy will give you production in all five categories. While Lee’s numbers probably can’t increase from last year, don’t expect them to go down much either.
6. Manny Ramirez, OF, Bos: Regardless of how much he hates being in Boston, Manny will continue to be Manny. At 33 years old, he isn’t ready to begin his decline, as he typically exerts as little energy as possible in left field. A trade to the Mets is the only thing that could hurt Manny’s value as Shea Stadium is generally tough on right-handed sluggers.
7. Carl Crawford, OF, TB: Crawford is a very exciting young player who jumps up to number 4 or 5 if you’re drafting in a keeper league, as he is only 24-years-old. He learned how to hit for a little bit of power last season. This year I’m expecting 20 homers to go along with a 50 steals and a .300 BA.
8. Johan Santana, SP, Min: Santana is the only pitcher who should get picked in the first round. He has put up great numbers over the last two years and is the only top-notch starting pitcher who has been steady enough to deserve such an honor. Look for even bigger numbers this season, as he is 27-years-old and set to enter the prime of his career.
9. David Wright, 3B, NYM: This is another promising young player who has shown that he has what it takes to be a star in this league. His value also increases in a keeper league. Look for him to continue to improve as an exceptional five-tool fantasy stud. Playing third base also helps his value, as this is a tough position to fill.
10. David Ortiz, DH, Bos: It’s too bad Ortiz doesn’t have a position because he would be a top 5 player with one. Having to use him in a utility spot really hurts the versatility your fantasy lineup should have. However, you can’t pass up the production he will give you. He has had three amazing years in Boston and, while he shouldn’t improve much more, he will continue to be very solid. As long as Manny is behind Big Papi in the lineup, pitchers will have to pitch to him.
11. Jason Bay, OF, Pit: Bay burst onto the scene in 2004 and went above and beyond expectations in 2005. While a little more protection would help, look for him to continue to improve his skills as a 5-tool and be an elite outfielder for years to come.
12. Michael Young, SS, Tex: This guy is the best shortstop in the game right now, barely edging Tejada for the top spot. Young is very durable and should continue playing at a very high level. Shortstop is a strange position this year. It seems like a pretty deep position at first glance, but then you realize that after the top 7 there isn’t much. Make sure you get one of those 7, or this could be a tough hole to fill.
13. Miguel Tejada, SS, Bal: While a trade to Boston would give him better protection and boost his value, it’s highly unlikely that he will leave the O’s. Still, Tejada is a great player who needs to be taken in the late first/early second round of the draft. He had a bit of a down year last year, but expect his numbers to come back to normal this season.
14. Miguel Cabrera, 3B/OF, Fla: Miguel Cabrera’s situation is really a shame, especially for fantasy owners. He is stuck in a horrible lineup that doesn’t provide any protection for him. Outside of Cabrera, this is a triple-A lineup and pitchers simply won’t give him anything to hit. While Cabrera will still produce decent numbers to go along with third base eligibility, he won’t do enough to merit a first round selection. However, it’s likely that Cabrera will go in the first round due to his young age and past production. Don’t be the fool who gets burned by this guy. (Note- if you are in a keeper league, take Cabrera in the middle to end of the first round.)
15. Alfonso Soriano, 2B, Was: Soriano is a very good, all-around player, but if you draft him, expect a drop off in homers. RFK is a tough place to hit the long ball. However, Soriano is the top option at a weak position so he should be taken in the second round.
16. Bobby Abreu, OF, Phi: The continuing emergence of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley along with the new guy, Aaron Rowand, will provide the protection for Abreu that was lacking last year in the absence of Jim Thome. Take Abreu’s 2004 numbers, subtract about ten steals, and you have Abreu’s 2006 stats.
17. Chris Carpenter, SP, StL: Carpenter really found his game in 2004 and built on it even more in 2005. Expect a slight drop off in production in 2006, as he is 30 years old and has likely hit his ceiling for growth. However, he will still be good enough to be a fantasy ace and must be the second starter chosen after Santana.
18. Roy Oswalt, SP, Hou: This guy has been a consistent ace on fantasy rosters. I’m not expecting anything less than another 20 win season and an ERA around 3.00. Anyone who passes him up after the mid to late second round will be kicking themselves.
19. Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM: Pedro is 34-years-old now. After being a Boston fan and seeing his lack of durability hurt the Sox on more than one occasion, I am very nervous about the aging of Pedro. Sure, he stayed relatively healthy this year, but in my strange, twisted logic, that makes him overdue for some serious time on the DL. While you can’t ignore him if he falls to you in the very late second round or in the third round, keep in mind his injury past and age. Don’t let his healthy 2005 season lull you into a false sense of security about his durability.
20. Chase Utley, 2B, Phi: Utley really found his groove last season and look for him to keep pouring it on in 2006. He’s turned 27, which is the perfect age for a guy to enter the prime of his career. Playing second base also helps out value quite a bit as there are really only three second basemen who can be true studs (Soriano, Utley, and Chone Figgins).