The Chase Is On

THE NFL PLAYOFF RACE

With five weeks worth of games remaining in the NFL regular season, no team has clinched yet, but many of them are on the verge. Here is how I see the playoff race ending up:
Current Rankings
AFC:

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-0, 1st AFC South)
2. Denver Broncos (9-2, 1st AFC West)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3, 1st AFC North)
4. New England Patriots (6-5, 1st AFC East)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3, 2nd AFC South)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4, 2nd AFC North)
7. San Diego Chargers (7-4, T-2nd AFC West)
8. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4, T- 2nd AFC West)

NFC:

1. Seattle Seahawks (9-2, 1st NFC West)
2. Chicago Bears (8-3, 1st NFC North)
3. Carolina Panthers (8-3, 1st NFC South)
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-4, 1st NFC East)
5. New York Giants (7-4, 2nd NFC East)
6. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-4, 2nd NFC South)
7. Atlanta Falcons (7-4, 3rd NFC South)
8. Minnesota Vikings (6-5, 2nd NFC North)

How I see it shaping up:
AFC

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-0) (Remaining Schedule- Tenn, at Jax, SD, at Sea, Az)- arguably the AFC’s (and NFL’s) best team, and on a quest for the NFL’s first 16-0 regulas season. They won’t get it. Only four of their 11 wins have come against teams currently with winning records. They’ll lose to one of the 20-TD runners (Tomlinson for SD, Alexander for Sea). Predicted Finish: 15-1, #1 seed.
2. Denver Broncos (9-2) (at KC, Bal, at Bills, Oak, at SD)- win over Dallas last week was huge for team’s confidence. They fall at KC and possibly at San Diego, but win other three games. Finish: 12-4, #2 seed.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) (at Pitt, Cle, at Det, Bills, at KC)- Chad Johnson has had yet another great season; team has a rough closing schedule, but they win at Pittsburgh because Ben Roethlisberger is hurting. They lose one of their final two games and win other three. Finish: 12-4, #3 seed.
4. New England Patriots (6-5) (Jets, at Bills, TB, at Jets, Mia)- used a record 43 starters this season, so it’s incredible that their record is as good as it is; if division wasn’t so bad this year, they’d be out of the playoffs; win all four of their divisional games, but drop the game against TB. Won’t three-peat, but next year they’ll come back loaded for another title run. Finish: 10-6, #4 seed.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) (at Cle, Colts, SF, at Hou, Tenn)- easiest closing schedule in the NFL, but losing Byron Leftwich for at least a month will hit this team hard. David Garrard is a decent fill-in for Leftwich and he’s one of the best backups in the league, but Leftwich was having a great year and the team’s momentum will be disrupted. They lose to the Colts and two of their other games. Finish: 10-6, #5 seed (get fifth seed over Pittsburgh by virtue of their win against them in the regular season).
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) (Cin, Chi, at Minn, at Cle, Det)- not the imposing run-first team that they were last season; Roethlisberger is banged up, but is still one of the best QB’s in the league. Have three rough games ahead of them against Cinci, Chicago and Minnesota. I see them losing to Cinci and Minnesota. Finish: 10-6, #6 seed.
7. San Diego Chargers (7-4) (Oak, Mia, at Colts, at KC, Den)- LaDanian Tomlinson is having an MVP-caliber season (1848 total yards, 22 total touchdowns), and it would be a shame if he doesn’t get to be on display in the playoffs. Sadly, he’ll be sitting at home come playoff time. They win three of their final five. Finish: 10-6, out of the playoffs (loss to Pittsburgh in regular season keeps them out of the playoffs).
8. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) (Den, at Dal, at Gia, SD, Cin)- playing five teams in final five games that have strong chances of a playoff berth. May squeak one or two wins out, but likely not more than that. Finish: 9-7, out of the playoffs.

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (9-2) (at Phi, SF, at Tenn, Colts, at GB)- Shaun Alexander has 1391 total yards and 20 touchdowns. Will Seattle be the NFC’s top seed? If so, they’ll likely have to win out to pull it off. Chicago and Carolina are right on their heels, and if they lose to the Colts, it would only take a loss in one of their other four games to cost them the #1 seed and possibly a first-round bye. Finish: 12-4, #1 seed.
2. Carolina Panthers (8-3) (Atl, TB, at NO, Dal, at Atl)- this year, they’ve been virtually injury-free, the defense has been dominant at most times, and Steve Smith has burst back onto the scene to play like he did in 2003, when Carolina reached the Super Bowl. I see them splitting with Atlanta and winning the rest of their games. Dallas will be a huge challenge, but playing them at home will put the Panthers over the edge. Finish: 12-4, #2 seed.
3. Chicago Bears (8-3) (GB, at Pitt, Atl, at GB, at Minn)- the NFC’s hardest team to figure out. They could be the NFC’s #1 seed if things fall their way; however, they could possibly be out of the playoffs if they lose twice, thanks to a loaded NFC South (Carolina at 8-3, Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 7-4). I see them losing at least once or more to Pitt, Atlanta, and Minnesota. It’s possible that they could lose to Green Bay, too, who at 2-9 is nothing but a spoiler now. Finish: 11-5, #3 seed.
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-4) (at Gia, KC, at Wash, at Car, Rams)- Drew Bledsoe has been one of the most interesting stories of the season. He has showed the poise and talent this year that helped to make him the #1 pick overall in 1993. Blew a huge chance to widen the gap with the Giants when they lost to Denver on Thanksgiving. I see them losing to Carolina and to Kansas City. They get their revenge on Washington for the comeback win the Redskins had when the teams played in Dallas. Finish: 10-6, #4 seed.
5. Atlanta Falcons (7-4) (at Car, NO, at Chi, at TB, Car)- Michael Vick has dealt with injuries for a lot of this season, but hasn’t missed many plays. This is the year they finally lose to Carolina. I see them splitting with Carolina and losing at Chicago on December 18th in what may be one of the best games on ESPN’s Sunday Night Football in years. Finish: 10-6, #5 seed (get fifth seed over Minnesota b/c they beat Minnesota in the regular season).
6. Minnesota Vikings (6-5) (at Det, Rams, Pitt, at Bal, Chi)- this can’t possibly be the same team that started this year 1-4 and put Mike Tice on the hot seat before October. Now, Minnesota has a possible shot at a wild-card berth if they win out or lose only once. I see them losing once in their final five games- to Chicago at home in the last game of the season. Finish: 10-6, #6 seed.
7. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-4) (at NO, at Car, at NE, Atl, NO)- Tampa started off strong this year, but “Cadillac” Williams has really slowed down from his incredible start, and this closing schedule isn’t that easy. Losing Griese for the season hurt the team a lot. I see them losing at Carolina, at home against Atlanta and getting upset one time against New Orleans. Finish: 9-7, out of the playoffs.
8. New York Giants (7-4) (Dal, at Phi, KC, at Wash, at Oak)- This is the team that I see making a big collapse in the end of the season. I see them losing against Dallas, even though they play them at home. I also seem they losing to KC, who needs every win it can get to get into the playoffs. I also see an upset in one of their other three games, which are all being played on the road. Hard to believe that this could happen to a team that started the year 6-2, but I see them out of the playoffs come January. Finish: 9-7, out of the playoffs.

Predicted Playoff Matchups
AFC
#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Cinci
#5 Jacksonville at #4 New England
Byes: Indianapolis, Denver

NFC
#6 Minnesota at #3 Chicago
#5 Atlanta at #4 Dallas
Byes: Seattle, Carolina

Of course, all this is one man’s opinion, and I may be way off on my predictions, but this is how I feel. Whatever happens, the 2005 NFL playoffs will be awesome, and it’s way too early to crown Indianapolis as this year’s champion, or even the AFC representative. As for the NFC, I really like Carolina’s chances.