Bluebook Notes–Michigan Sun Bowl Bound?!?

Is Michigan overrated?  Has Vince Young catapulted himself to the top of the Heisman race?  Will Tennessee beat Florida again in the Swamp?  Avery Smith answers all of these questions and more in this installment of Bluebook Notes.I hear El Paso is a really fine place in January.  Unfortunately it is a destination that most teams in the Big Ten teams try to avoid.  The reason why is because El Paso hosts the Sun Bowl which gives an invite to the fifth place team in the Big Ten.  I’m not ready to say that the Wolverine fans are destined to spend their holidays getting drunk in Juarez, but if things don’t change soon, it could happen.  Michigan looked uninspiring at best against Northern Illinois, and played even worse last Saturday against Notre Dame.

On Saturday, I noticed a couple of things that should concern Michigan fans across the country.  The first is Steve Breaston.  This is a guy that at minimum was supposed to help carry the burden of losing Braylon Edwards, and who could potentially be Chad Henne’s number one option.  In two games he has clearly underperformed (besides that nice reverse) and only has 24 yards receiving.  He has got the talent, but does he have the route running skills and discipline that it takes to be a solid receiver?  Only time will tell.

The second concern for Michigan of course would be their efficiency in the red zone.  One of the main reasons why there was so much trouble punching the ball in was because of the offensive line and the injuries within.  Jake Long will be out for most of the season and nagging injuries to guys like Matt Lentz and Mike Kolodziej have decimated a unit that is extremely talented but always had depth issues.  This will be another area that Lloyd Carr and his staff will have to address immediately, so that they can put themselves in contention for the Big Ten crown.  If they don’t, Michigan could be headed for a showdown at high noon in El Paso.

The HeisDAQ

The race for the Heisman Trophy fluctuates week by week.  The HeisDAQ will let you know whose Heisman “stock” is rising and falling.

1. Matt Leinart, QB USC (strong buy) The Trojans had a bye week so they could relax and further prepare themselves for the pending annihilation that they are going to dish out to the Arkansas Razorbacks.  I will be at the Colisseum on Saturday to witness this first-hand, I expect no less than a 300-yard game from Leinart.
2. Vince Young, QB Texas (strong buy) I guess Vince Young likes playing against the Big Ten.  Until last Saturday, Young was best known for his stellar 3-touchdown performance against Michigan in the 2005 Rose Bowl.  Now, he has shown that last year’s virtuoso against the Wolverines was no fluke, and he obviously loves being on center stage.  I wonder what all of those doubters are going to say now the he THREW a touchdown pass to beat the Buckeyes.
3. Reggie Bush, RB,KR,PR USC (buy) I still think that Reggie Bush can win the Heisman; however, its gotten even tougher for him to pull it out.  He will have throw up some pretty gaudy stats against Arkansas this Saturday in order to move up on my ballot.  The good news for him is that he has the goods to do it.
4. Chris Leak, QB Florida (buy) Leak had a strong performance last week, and showed that he could be a contender for the Heisman Trophy.  He has settled in very nicely with Urban Meyer’s offense and has been a model of efficiency.  This week, he will be on center stage as the Gators battle Tennessee in one of the best SEC matchups this season.  If Leak can lead his team to victory, he will most certainly move up in my rankings.
5. Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame (strong buy) I think Brady read my column last week.  He performed exactly as I outlined by making plays and leading his team to victory.  He has earned his spot in the Top 5 and playing for the Irish guarantees him all the media time and corresponding hype that he will need.
6. Adrian Peterson (speculative buy) 42 yards and a cloud of dust.  That is probably the most accurate way to describe one of the best touchdown runs of the season.  Peterson has vaulted back to 6th in my rankings with a strong 220 yard performace against Tulsa.  He will have to continue this forward momentum against a UCLA team that has potent offensive firepower, but is vulnerable to a strong rushing attack.
7. Ted Ginn, WR, KR, PR, DB Ohio State (speculative buy) Ginn let a fantastic opportunity slip through his very talented fingertips against Texas.  Although Ginn has the ability to be a game-changer, he is still a sophomore and sometimes plays like one.  I don’t know if Ginn will have a shot make up the ground needed to win the Heisman, but it’ll be fun watching him try.
8. Laurence Maroney, RB Minnesota (buy) Maroney is keeping his faint Heisman dreams alive with strong showing against Colorado State.  He put a good numbers, but considering the field that he’s up against, he almost has to average 175 yards per game.  The competition will begin to stiffen as well in the next couple of weeks, so he will be put to the test.
9. Gerald Riggs Jr., RB Tennessee (buy)  Riggs makes my list this week because he has the same opportunity that Chris Leak has.  The Florida-Tennessee showdown promises to be a show-stopper and whoever can take the most advantage of it will improve their odds for taking home the hardware significantly.  Riggs is the best player on Tennessee’s offense and must have a good game if they are to win.  If he can rush for over 100 yards with a couple of scores (preferably the game winning one), he will have put his name back in the running for the Heisman.
10. Drew Tate, QB Iowa (hold) Tate’s Heisman hopes took a significant hit due to the loss against Iowa State.  He has to hope the Heisman voters remember that he sustained a concussion in that game and that he was unavailable to play after the 2nd quarter.  I have to keep him in my Top 10 for now, but one more early season loss will most likely drop him out of contention for good.

Others to Watch:  Omar Jacobs (buy) D.J. Shockley (speculative buy) Reggie McNeal (buy) Reggie Ball (speculative buy) DeAngelo Williams (speculative buy) Maurice Drew (speculative buy)

Games To Watch/Picks to Click

In this section of Bluebook Notes, I highlight three of the best potential games for the next week.  I will also give my pick as to who will come out victorious.

Season Record: 1-2 ATS/Last Week 1-2 ATS

Oklahoma at UCLA (Oklahoma +6 ½ ) This is a very intriguing matchup, and a difficult one to pick.  UCLA has the advantage on offense with a very balanced attack.  Oklahoma has struggled on defense, and has looked terrible attempting to throw the ball.  However, the ace in the hole for the Sooners is the matchup between Adrian Peterson and the Bruin rushing defense.  The Bruins have looked soft against the run this year and gave up 200 yards to lowly Rice last Saturday.  If the Sooners can manage the clock, they will pull this one out, if not it could get ugly.  I look for a score somewhere in the middle.

Maurice Drew Olson’s 31, Sooners Schoonered 20

Florida St at Boston College (BC +1)  Whenever the over/under on a game in college football is 38 points, then you know that the oddsmakers are predicting a defensive struggle.  I would concur with them, as both teams are strong on defense.  In these types of games, it will come down to which team makes the plays on offense and keeps their defense rested.  I think Boston College has the advantage there and will win the game.

Eagles Flying High 20, FSU 17

Tennessee at Florida  (Tennessee +6) I don’t think anyone expected Chris Leak to take to Urban Meyer’s offensive schemes the way he has.  Unfortunately for Volunteer fans, this means that Leak and the Gators are clicking on all cylinders.  The Swamp will be loud and the Gator defense will stack the line and force whichever quarterback Tennessee decides to use to beat them through the air.  I think that Gerald Riggs will play well, but the Gators win.

Urban’s Gators 28, Tennessaw 10

That’s all, and I’ll see all of you again next week!