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2011 NFL Week 14 Picks and Podcast

The podcast this week is about as good as the featured games. Take that for what it’s worth. RJ is down to his last $5 and he’s trying to figure out whether he can bet it all or just hang on betting $3.30 to win $3 so he can take the bus home. Also, Jeff Garcia has a job? Most people would have to take a moment when asked Jeff Garcia: Dead, Alive, or Canadian.

The featured games this week are Texans at Bengals, Bears at Broncos, and Giants at Cowboys.

You can download the podcast directly (running time 75 mins) or subscribe to the feed.

If you use iTunes, just click here and then click subscribe and iTunes will take care of the rest.

NFL Week 14 2011 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Burton Actual
Browns @ Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Vikings @ Lions Lions Lions Lions Vikings
Colts @ Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Texans @ Bengals Bengals Bengals Texans Texans
Falcons @ Panthers Panthers Falcons Panthers Falcons
Bucs @ Jaguars Jaguars Bucs Bucs Jaguars
Chiefs @ Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets
Patriots @ Redskins Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Saints @ Titans Saints Saints Titans Saints
Eagles @ Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Niners @ Cards Niners Niners Niners Niners
Bears @ Broncos Bears Broncos Broncos Broncos
Bills @ Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
Raiders @ Packers Packers Packers Packers Raiders
Giants @ Cowboys Giants Giants Giants Cowboys
Rams @ Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Rams
Prev Week 11-5 11-5 11-5 13-3
Overall 132-60 122-70 122-70 120-72

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Burton Actual
Browns @ Steelers (-15.5) Steelers Browns Steelers Browns
Vikings @ Lions (-7) Lions Vikings Vikings Vikings
Colts @ Ravens (-16.5) Colts Colts Ravens Ravens
Texans @ Bengals (-1.5) Bengals Bengals Texans Texans
Falcons @ Panthers (+2.5) Panthers Falcons Panthers Falcons
Bucs @ Jaguars (+1) Jaguars Bucs Bucs Jaguars
Chiefs @ Jets (-9) Chiefs Jets Chiefs Jets
Patriots @ Redskins (+8) Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Saints @ Titans (+3.5) Titans Saints Titans Titans
Eagles @ Dolphins (-3) Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Niners @ Cards (+3.5) Niners Niners Niners Cards
Bears @ Broncos (-3.5) Bears Bears Broncos Broncos
Bills @ Chargers (-7) Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
Raiders @ Packers (-10.5) Packers Packers Packers Raiders
Giants @ Cowboys (-3) Giants Giants Giants Cowboys
Rams @ Seahawks (-4.5) Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Rams
Prev Week 9-7 10-6 9-7 13-3
Overall 99-89 95-93 97-91 103-85

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (5-8, Balance=$1,080)This has not been a banner year for me. But I have hit on one big bet: NE vs Philly. That was by virtue of knowing the Eagles and was an easy call. I have no idea how they’re going to do against the Dolphins this week so I’ll play the other side of that card. The New England Patriots are going to destroy the Redskins this week.

First of all, the Redskins stink. But the real story here is that the Patriots gave up 21 straight points to the Indianpolis Colts after jumping out to a 31-3 lead. Everyone in that lockerroom knew they were going to hear it all week from Belichick.

Even if the Redskins had Fred Davis and Trent Williams (both suspended for the rest of the year for violating the substance abuse policy), the Patriots would beat the Redskins by 20 points. Feeling the wrath of Bill all this week will ensure they play 60 minutes. That’s like a 40 point win. New England 49-3. I’ll put $550 to win $500 on the Patriots (-8).

BostonMac: (8-5, Balance=$1,615) OK I’m not going to ride the Broncos anymore. (That’s what she said.) I nailed my $330 lock last week on Tebow, which puts me just behind Burton with the final quarter of the season to play. So I’m going to mix it up and sell on Denver before they screw me like Herman Cain on a job applicant. This week I’m switching it up to the NFC and I’m going to roll with the Saints. Sure, Chris Johnson is finally coming to life (130+ yards in three of his last four games), and of course it’s just in time for fantasy playoffs. Kudos to the owners who stuck with the big man through some tough times this year. But there’s no way Johnson can keep up with New Orleans’ high-octane, spread-out attack. The Saints are outscoring the Titans by 12 PPG, and Hasselbeck and company will keep it close for a half before Brees starts to pull away late. The Saints are hitting on all cylinders, and they’re not afraid of a paper tiger AFC wannabe like Tennessee. I’ll scale it down though and put $55 to win $50 on NEW ORLEANS (-3.5).

RJ: (2-10, Balance =$5) So I guess I’m broke. Kaput. I got zilch, zero, nada, etc. left. I’m the Umglick of the group. Well, technically I have five dollars left, but that’s barely enough to get me on the bus to Skid Row. People still use the term Skid Row, right? But I’m still here for you, dearest gambling junkies. My “action” has been on the money recently. My fade action, that is. If you’ve been doing the opposite of what I tell you, you should be buying some really nice Christmas presents this year. Honestly, it is un-fucking-canny how awful I am when it comes to picking that ONE GAME each week that I supposedly like over all the others. I mean really, my overall record is pretty decent, right there with the other “experts” (quotes to show I really mean it) on this show . But when it comes to that ONE GAME, I turn into Lebron James in the 4th quarter. I’m suddenly Greg Norman on the back nine at Augusta. I’m Bill Buckner bending over for the grounder. Bottom line, I really suck at this.

So, with all the games this week that are tough to pick, I think that the BALTIMORE RAVENS (-16.5) should keep pace for the top seed in the AFC by humiliating the Colts. This is actually somewhat of a revenge game for Baltimore. Indy and Peyton Manning have always had their number, knocking them out of the playoffs several times and usually making them look bad in the process. Oh, and don’t forget about that little 1983 incident involving Mayflower Transit, LLC. It still burns the older school Baltimore fans to see the horseshoe helmets in town as the visitors and not their beloved home team. I fully expect the thuggish and brutish Ravens to take whatever lunch money the Colts have left this year. It’s probably more than I have. Not only does Indy not have a win in them, they used up their ridiculous back door cover for the year against the Patriots. Points, schmoints, This one’s gonna be a blowout.

Burton: (7-6, Balance =$1,715) Early in the season, heck, before the season even started, the Detroit Lions were the pick to cause some splashes, were the pick to make a run at January football for the first time since the 20th century. And boom, they were 6-0, the toast of a very tough division, playing every bit as inspired as the also 6-0 Green Bay Packers. But like Purge in the 2004 Belmont Stakes, that lead was very short-lived, and by the turn for home in the season they’d been exposed as frauds.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings, as bad, as putrid as they’ve been, have at least showed heart. Down big to Atlanta, they fought back to make a game of it, even though their superstar RB missed the entire game. They pushed El Salvador himself the following week to the wire, losing out only because God loves the Denver Broncos a little bit more.

The Vikings are not as bad as their record. The Lions are nothing near the mark the NFL credits them at. Detroit very well could win this game, but they’re not a touchdown better than Minnesota. Not anymore, at least. I’m going $55 to win $50 on Minnesota (+7) to keep it close.

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