Playoff Predictions

It’s September, which means it’s crunch time for Major League Baseball. It’s the time of year when players give that extra effort to help their respective teams get into the playoffs. This September will be an exciting month, with both wild card races already going down to the wire. Here is how it will be played out in October.

A.L. West:

1. Oakland Athletics – The A’s are going to get Rich Harden back soon and Bobby Crosby is scheduled to return later in the month. It can only help to have your best pitcher and your team leader back in the clubhouse. Barry Zito, Danny Haren, and Joe Blanton have all been dominant of late, and if they can keep this pace up, they will have the best playoff rotation in the majors. Also, young guys like closer Huston Street (18 saves, 1.31 ERA), Dan Johnson (12 HR, 45 RBI, .475 Slugging %), and Nick Swisher (17 HR, 64 RBI) will continue to impress down the stretch. They will be consistent enough throughout September to beat the offensively-challenged Angels out for the division crown.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Garrett Anderson is not going to be healthy enough or productive enough in front of Vladimir Guerrero for the Angels to win the division. Despite the anticipated return of Kelvim Escobar, their ace, Bartolo Colon was injured in his previous start. They will need to get outstanding performances from Ervin Santana and the rest of the staff down the stretch to win the division from the A’s.

3. Texas Rangers – The Rangers went from contenders to pretenders this season, and are now suddenly one game under .500, and nine games back in the division. Maybe it’s just too early for the youngsters Michael Young, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira to carry Texas into the playoffs.

4. Seattle Mariners – The Mariners had pretty high expectations coming into the 2005 season, but anyone with half a brain could see they didn’t have the talent to make it to the playoffs. Not quite yet. I nominate Adrian Beltre for bust of the year.

A.L. Central:

1. Chicago White Sox – As of Tuesday, the White Sox owned the second best record in the major leagues, and possessed a nine and a half game lead over Cleveland in the division. They seem like a sure bet for the postseason, but don’t count on them to advance in October.

2. Cleveland Indians – The Indians are loaded with young talent, and are hot right now. They have a great shot at winning the wild card spot, as long as C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Jake Westbrook continue to pitch well. With Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner heating up, they are going to be a force down the stretch.

3. Minnesota Twins – After dominating the Central in recent years, the Twins are finally going to fall short of the playoffs. Losing Torii Hunter was a devastating blow to the offense, defense, and team morale. One bright spot is the young Twins who will carry this team in the future, like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

4. Detroit Tigers – The Tigers have a pretty good young group of guys, but need to upgrade a lot in their pitching. If they can make a couple acquisitions in the offseason to strengthen their bullpen, they may be able to contend in the near future, since they already have a formidable offense, led by veterans Magglio Ordonez and Ivan Rodriguez.

5. Kansas City Royals – The Royals are just plain terrible, and will continue to rot in the cellar of the A.L. Central, until the management makes some trades, and signs some free agents. They need to trade Mike Sweeney for some young guns, and start developing their minor league system with some authority.

A.L. East:

1. Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox offense is ridiculous. The worst average among their regulars belongs to Kevin Millar at a .276 clip. They are a team who can hurt you with power, they can string hits together, they can take walks. Basically, if the Sox get a good performance from their pitcher, they will win the game. If Schilling can regain his ace form, Boston has a decent chance of repeating as World Champions.

2. New York Yankees – The Yankees have the best offense in the majors, but they can’t get by with just hitting when the Red Sox are the team they are chasing. Their injury-prone starting rotation has forced them to acquire Al Leiter, Shawn Chacon, and Aaron Small to fill in the spots around a struggling Randy Johnson. Adding to the misery, all-star outfielder Gary Sheffield left today’s game with an apparent leg injury, and if he is forced to miss any large amount of time, it will devastate the Yankees. They don’t have the pitching this season to take the East, but look for them to be in the wild-card race all the way to the end.

3. Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are slowly becoming a very good team. They are still behind the Red Sox and Yankees, but in a few years, if either of those teams falter, the division will be ripe for the Jays to take. They are only two games under .500 right now, but young guys like Reed Johnson, Vernon Wells, and Orlando Hudson are going to be a good core to build around, and they have a couple of young stud pitchers in Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers. Watch out for Toronto in the next couple years to make a run for it.

4. Baltimore Orioles – Oh, the woeful Baltimore Orioles. They were in first place for almost half of the season, until their offense started faltering, and opposing hitters started to time their pitchers. It all fell apart when Erik Bedard went on the DL, Rafael Palmeiro got caught using steroids, and manager Lee Mazzilli got fired. The Orioles can be a very good team if they get rid of Sidney Ponson, because they already have Melvin Mora, Miguel Tejada (arguably the best player in the majors), Brian Roberts, Javy Lopez, and B.J. Ryan who have established themselves as premier players. With Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, and Bedard on the hill, the Orioles might be joining the Blue Jays in a sneak attack on the Sox and Yanks in a few years.

5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays – The Devil Rays do not have a high payroll, but they have a pretty good farm system, and some young guys that are already producing well in the major leagues. Unfortunately, the other 4 teams in the division are also going to be good for the future, and with the Rays’ limited payroll, they won’t be able to salvage a playoff berth for some time. Hey, 10-4 against the Yankees is something to be proud of though.

N.L. West:

1. San Diego Padres – This division disgusts me. It is by far the worst division in baseball, seeing as the first place Padres are one game under .500, yet hold a commanding 5 game lead. Any team in the N.L. East would be in first place in this division right now, and the teams trying to catch the Padres right now are all no less than 11 games under .500. The Giants (63-74), Dodgers (62-76), and Diamondbacks (62-77) are still in the race despite their records. Sadly enough, the Padres will hold on and earn the right to be destroyed by Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs.

2. San Francisco Giants – The Giants are printing playoff tickets right now, even though their winning percentage is a measly .460. Does that tell you enough? The only thing they can win now is the pride of beating the Dodgers, which at this point is a toss-up. It all depends on whether Jeff Kent gets in an argument with Barry Bonds or Milton Bradley. That will be even more exciting than the actual division race.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers – Paul DePodesta, what have you done? A once promising team now is full of un-talented nobodies, save for Cesar Izturis, Eric Gagne, Jeff Kent, and Milton Bradley (ironically, Izturis, Gagne, and Bradley are all on the DL). The Dodgers at this point are coming up with players nobody has ever heard of and just throwing them in there to fill a spot. Even their farm system, which used to possess a plethora of talent, has lost a lot of potential and looks depleted now. Who are Hee-Seop Choi and Jose Valentin by the way? Are they even real people?

4. Arizona Diamondbacks – Another team still in the race with a record 15 games under .500. They have Luis Gonzalez, Troy Glaus, and Shawn Green in the middle of their order, and that’s…about…it. If they can improve their pitching staff and get some good young prospects, then they will rule the N.L. West in the future! Sadly, the way things look, ruling the future N.L. West will take nothing more than 70 wins per season.

5. Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are just enjoying beating up on the sad teams in their division right now. With 56 wins, they are just 12 games out of first place, and are only the third worst team in the majors now! Clint Barmes, Todd Helton, and Jeff Francis look poised to improve the team in the coming years, but it will be a long time before they seriously contend when they have to play half of their games at Coors Field.

N.L. Central:

1. St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals are by far the best team in the National League, and they have the best record in baseball. Their starting staff is dominant this year, with Chris Carpenter getting strong consideration for the Cy Young award, and as always, their offense is unstoppable. They boast future MVP Albert Pujols, the ageless wonder Jim Edmonds, and spunky little David Eckstein in their lineup. Despite the loss of all-star third baseman Scott Rolen, the Cardinals are going to waltz into the postseason, and keep finding ways to win games. Their strong bullpen, anchored by Jason Isringhausen, will be dominant and Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Morris will carry the team through October, to the World Series with ease.

2. Houston Astros – The Astros have a lot of talent with Willy Taveras leading off and Lance Berkman re-emerging from his injury. They will lose some offense with the injury to Morgan Ensberg, but their pitching rotation is so good that they have a great shot at taking the N.L. Wild Card. Roger Clemens is out of this world, posting a 1.57 ERA thus far. If not for his 11-6 record (mostly due to Houston’s lack of run support in his starts), he would be a no-brainer for the Cy Young. Andy Pettite and Roy Oswalt also have sub-3 ERA’s and closer Brad Lidge is the best in the business right now.

3. Chicago Cubs – The annual dissapointment of the Major Leagues, the Cubs, are at it again. Their rotation is injured and they can’t get consistent play from everyone. Despite Derrek Lee having a breakout (and possibly MVP-worthy?) season, having Jeromy Burnitz hitting clean up just won’t cut it. Even if Nomar Garciapparra had played the entire season, I don’t think the Cubs would have been good enough to make the playoffs. This year, they will fall short of the wild card.

4. Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers are slowly becoming a very good team. They have developing players like J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, and Chris Capuano having respectable seasons, and their combination of youth and talent may turn out to be deadly in the near future. Count them out for the playoffs this year, but don’t expect them to be out for long.

5. Cincinnati Reds – They have some good, young guys in Adam Dunn and Felipe Lopez, but they are not going to be able to be a playoff team with the guys they currently have. Ken Griffey, Jr. is having a great year finally, but their pitching is terrible. They need to get rid of Dunn and Griffey, and build around Lopez and Austin Kearns. Build up the farm system for the future. Don’t be surprised if the Brewers and Reds are contenders in the Central in a few short years.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are the Royals of the National League. They fired manager Lloyd McClendon after 5 straight losing seasons. They don’t have much potential right now, aside from all-star Jason Bay and young lefty Zach Duke. Otherwise, they are in the same situation as the Royals. They need to build around guys like Duke, Bay, and Jack Wilson and plan for the road ahead.

N.L. East:

1. Atlanta Braves – The Braves have somehow fooled everyone into thinking that they couldn’t do it anymore. That they wouldn’t win yet another division title. Their minor league system is so deep that they will be good in the coming years, plus another decade! This year they have contributions from rookies, veterans, new guys, old guys, whoever. But they are getting the production they need and are running away with the division in the process. Andruw Jones is my MVP for the National League, and Jeff Francoeur my Rookie of the Year. Bobby Cox should probably win Manager of the Year too. They will advance to the NLCS this year and lose a tight one to the Cardinals. Their future roster will consist of names like Jones, Francoeur, Rafael Furcal, Marcus Giles, Johnny Estrada, Tim Hudson, Kyle Davies, and Blaine Boyer for years to come. And they will always have Julio Franco (for at least another 25 years). They are quietly building a dynasty, and now if they could only win a few more Series…

2. Florida Marlins – They will be Houston’s biggest competition for the wild card this year. If they win it, based on history, they will win the World Series (as they did as the wild card team in both 1997 and 2003). Not really, but they have the makings of a team that could be very good in short series. They have a lethal combination of Josh Beckett (12-8, 3.63 ERA), A.J. Burnett (12-9, 3.23), and Cy Young candidate Dontrelle Willis (20-8, 2.52) in their rotation. Todd Jones has come out of nowhere to save 35 games for them. Juan Pierre still hasn’t gotten hot yet, and Carlos Delgado and the sensational Miguel Cabrera are hitting the ball with authority right now. The wild card race will be the most exciting race in the majors, with three or four serious teams coming down to the last few games of the season.

3. Philadelphia Phillies – Ryan Howard has filled in nicely for Jim Thome, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, and Bobby “I hit 41 homers in the Home Run Derby” Abreu are having good seasons, and Billy Wagner is one of the best closers in baseball. I don’t think they have enough starting pitching to make the playoffs, but once Gavin Floyd grows up by next year, they will be in the playoffs.

4. New York Mets – They have a good, solid group of young guys leading the way. The fourth place finish won’t be so bad considering they will only narrowly miss the wild card. They have Jose Reyes and David Wright having monster years (and they are both just 22 years old), and they have the dependable Carlos Beltran in the outfield. Pedro Martinez is having a great year, but doesn’t have a lot of help. Give them a couple years to ship away the likes of Mike Piazza, Ramon Castro, Doug Mientkiewicz, baggage like that, and sign a few cheaper players, and this N.L. East division will continue to be tight for years to come.

5. Washington Nationals – Although they won’t be able to salvage anything more than last place again, the new-look Nationals have proved they have what it takes to contend. They have a decent starting staff, and a star closer in Chad Cordero. They need a little help on offense, and maybe a big name pitcher, but other than that, they just need to be patient. In the near future, Washington (as well as the other 4 teams) will be contending every year with players like Jose Guillen, Brad Wilkerson, and Preston Wilson leading the way. Also, Frank Robinson may be the only man who can beat out Bobby Cox for Manager of the Year.

My picks for the postseason and awards:

A.L. MVP: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees – He has a .321 batting average, 40 home runs, and 108 RBI’s. There are so many deserving candidates in the A.L. (David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Gary Sheffield) that it’s really a toss-up. But in terms of who is most valuable to their team, A-Rod stands out to me.

A.L. Cy Young: Bartolo Colon, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – For me the choice was clear earlier in the season; Roy Halladay of Toronto had my vote until he broke his leg and had to sit out the rest of the season. Now, the competition is between John Garland and Mark Buehrle of the Chicago White Sox, and Colon. Garland and Buehrle have both had stellar years, but Colon’s numbers justify my choice (18-6, 3.24 ERA).

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Huston Street, Oakland Athletics – He has 18 saves and a 1.31 ERA, just one year after pitching in the College World Series. He has that poise about him, like a guy that will be a lights-out closer for a long time. This is a hard pick to make because there is also Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton of the A’s to consider. If Grady Sizemore of the Indians is in fact considered a rookie, he gets the edge over Street, but I’m not sure about that ruling. Also, if Tadahito Iguchi of the White Sox wins the award, it will be another ridiculous mishap by baseball. Just because they are in their first full American professional season doesn’t constitute them as a rookie if they have played in Japan.

A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Jason Giambi, New York Yankees – Giambi has made a complete turn around in his career. He had to deal with steroid allegations, injuries, and sickness last year, and his sub-par 2004 performance led to the Yankees even thinking about getting rid of him. But this year he has rebounded hitting .280 with 26 home runs, 68 RBI’s, and an on base percentage of .448. He is a big reason why the Yankees are still in the playoff hunt. The only other competition Giambi has is Cleveland closer Bob Wickman who has revived his career after arm troubles to save an AL-leading 36 games.

A.L. Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillen, Chicago White Sox – By far the easiest pick I have. There is no other real competition, and the way he has revived the White Sox and changed their style of play is incredible. Usually not enough credit for a team’s success goes to a manager, but in this case Guillen deserves a lot of it.

N.L. MVP: Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves – Where would the Braves be without Jones? Probably in the middle of the wild card race instead of towering atop the division. Jones has a major league-leading 45 home runs to complement 114 RBI’s and a .270 batting average. He saved the season for the Braves by getting hot at all the right times and making up for the loss of Chipper Jones to an injury. Without Andruw leading them, the Atlanta rookies would not have been able to bring them back to the top either. In this category, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals and Derrek Lee of the Cubs also deserve a lot of consideration. Even though they both had incredible seasons, neither of them was more valuable to their team than Andruw Jones.

N.L. Cy Young: Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals – My heart says Roger Clemens, my head says Carpenter. Carpenter is baffling opponents this year with a 20-4 record, and a 2.28 ERA. His record is superior to Clemens’ but his ERA is just a tad bit higher. The difference maker in this decision was that Carpenter kept the Cardinals in it all year long, even when Mulder was struggling. Whereas Clemens has had Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettite (two of my other candidates)most of the year to back him up. This was a very deep category, as Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Zambrano, and even Jake Peavy of the Marlins, Cubs, and Padres, respectively, deserve consideration for the award.

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves – He’s only been in the big leagues since July 1, which makes it even more amazing that he will win this award. Willy Taveras of Houston and Ryan Howard of Philadelphia were also strong contenders, but their performances can’t match Francoeur’s. He is hitting .337 with 12 home runs and 38 RBI’s so far, and more importantly, has gunned down nine runners from the outfield.

N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnatti Reds – This was an extremely tough choice, between Griffey, and Andy Pettite of the Astros. Pettite has had an amazing year, but it has to be Griffey, after he overcame his injuries and recovered to dazzle fans this year. He is hitting .301 with 35 home runs and 92 RBI’s, reminding us of what the good old days were like. This is vintage Griffey Jr., and he deserves the award.

N.L. Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves – It was another toss-up between two candidates in this one. Cox, or National’s manager Frank Robinson? The popular choice might be Robinson considering how bad the Expos used to be, and how he has revived them, but I think the move to Washington has helped a lot. No other manager in the big leauges could successfully turn a hopeless mess of a team into division winners with a bunch of rookies. Chipper Jones got hurt, three of their starting pitchers got hurt, Danny Kolb couldn’t close games, and yet Cox found a way to manage them through it and get them back to the top.

AL Divisional Series: Angels def. White Sox 3-1, Red Sox def. A’s 3-2

AL Championship Series: Red Sox def. Angels 4-2

N.L. Divisional Series: Atlanta def. San Diego 3-0, St. Louis def. Florida 3-2

N.L. Championship Series: St. Louis def. Atlanta 4-3

World Series: St. Louis def. Boston 4-3