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December 9, 2010

2010 NFL Week 14 Picks and Podcast

In a blink of an eye it’s week 14 and contenders are jockeying for playoff positioning. This makes even the most seemingly boring game important as we fire up the playoff scenario generator and figure out how strength of schedule can affect seeding. The featured games this week are St. Louis at New Orleans, New England at Chicago, Kansas City at San Diego, and Philadelphia at Dallas.

You can download the podcast directly (running time 90 mins) or subscribe to the feed.

If you use iTunes, just click here and then click subscribe and iTunes will take care of the rest.

NFL Week 14 2010 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Colts @ Titans Colts Titans Colts Colts
Bucs @ Redskins Bucs Bucs Bucs Redskins
Falcons @ Panthers Falcons Falcons Falcons Panthers
Bengals @ Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Bengals
Browns @ Bills Bills Browns Browns Browns
Packers @ Lions Packers Packers Packers Lions
Raiders @ Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
Giants @ Vikings Giants Vikings Giants Giants
Rams @ Saints Saints Saints Saints Rams
Seahawks @ Niners Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Dolphins @ Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets
Patriots @ Bears Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Chiefs @ Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
Broncos @ Cards Broncos Broncos Cards Cards
Eagles @ Cowboys Eagles Eagles Eagles Cowboys
Ravens @ Texans Ravens Ravens Ravens Texans
Prev Week 12-4 (.750) 12-4 (.750) 12-4 (.750) 8-8 (.500)
Overall 117-75 (.609) 114-78 (.594) 115-77 (.599) 108-82 (.568)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Colts @ Titans (+3.5) Colts Titans Titans Colts
Bucs @ Redskins (+2) Bucs Bucs Bucs Redskins
Falcons @ Panthers (+7.5) Falcons Panthers Falcons Panthers
Bengals @ Steelers (-9.5) Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals
Browns @ Bills (-1) Bills Browns Browns Browns
Packers @ Lions (+7) Packers Lions Lions Lions
Raiders @ Jaguars (-4) Raiders Jaguars Jaguars Raiders
Giants @ Vikings (+2.5) Giants Vikings Giants Giants
Rams @ Saints (-10) Saints Rams Rams Rams
Seahawks @ Niners (-5.5) Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Dolphins @ Jets (-5.5) Dolphins Jets Dolphins Dolphins
Patriots @ Bears (+3) Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Chiefs @ Chargers (-7) Chargers Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Broncos @ Cards (+5) Broncos Broncos Cards Cards
Eagles @ Cowboys (+3) Eagles Cowboys Eagles Cowboys
Ravens @ Texans (+3) Ravens Ravens Ravens Texans
Prev Week 10-5-1 (.667) 11-4-1 (.733) 9-6-1 (.600) 6-9-1 (.400)
Overall 87-98-7 (.470) 98-87-7 (.530) 91-94-7 (.492) 77-108-7 (.416)

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (6-7, Balance =$1060). I’m feeling good about my locks of the week now. I’m in a groove and I’m gonna stick to my instincts. Overthinking is the death of a good gambler. I think the line on the Packers – Lions game isn’t high enough. This is partially due to the Lions hanging in there versus the Bears last week. But the Packers are a much stronger team than the Bears and they’ve beaten the Lions 10 straight time. Look for Rodgers to spread the ball around against the weak Lions secondary. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver should have great fantasy days. The Lions will be able to put up some points but they’ll fade by the 4th. Look for a Lions repeat of the Thanksgiving Day game agains the Patriots.

I’ll give the 7 points (really it’s down to 6.5 now) and put $110 to win $100 on the Packers.

BostonMac: (5-7-1), Balance =$945) I fell asleep last Monday night and I didn’t see the very end of the Patriots-Jets game, so I don’t know if New England held on to cover the 3.5 point spread, but I’ll assume that they won and I won $400 on my bet. So let’s move on to my next strategy: picking against the Oakland Raiders. Somehow the Raiders pulled one of their ass last week on the road in San Diego and shocked the Super Chargers. Now they have to go across the country for a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone against a fired-up Jacksonville team that can see the finish line with a completely improbably divisional championship in the works. No one (especially RJ) saw this coming. The last time Oakland came east for a 1 PM game, the Steelers socked them in the mouth. Look for the first place Jags to do the same. I’m going to tighten up this week and put $55 to win $50 on JACKSONVILLE (-4).

RJ: (7-3-1, Balance =$1125) I’ve been pointing out some outrageous lines this year, but Seattle vs. San Francisco Part Two: Son of Seattle vs. San Francisco, might be the biggest head scratcher I’ve seen since I’ve been doing this show. I understand the 49ers are at home, but they have played horrible football there as well as everywhere else. You never know what you’re getting when the Seahawks venture away from the Pacific Northwest, but they have put together some pretty good efforts on the road this year, and this game shouldn’t be any different considering they’re in contention for a playoff spot. Mike Singletary has shown that he’s not up to the task of NFL head coaching, while Pete Carroll has acquitted himself rather well, to the surprise of many. And if that hasn’t convinced you, these two words will: Alex Smith. Yep, he’s back for no good reason, so run with Seattle (+5.5) before somebody realizes that they had this line mistakenly flipped. That’s the only reason I can think of. $110 wins you $100.

Burton: (7-5, Balance =$1115). I’ve been on a good run recently with Rams games and with a line like this, I see no reason that luck will change. St. Louis is 5-1 ATS this season on the road, and that lone loss was a 44-6 no-show in Detroit. They’re shooting to become just the fifth team in the past decade to win three weeks in a row on the road, and a straight-up win is not out of the question. The Saints have played down to their opponents all season, losing to the Browns and Cardinals while struggling against Carolina and Cincinnati. While St. Louis may be a division leader, they’re still a team that on paper New Orleans should blow out.

The Rams offense sputtered in the red zone last week in the desert and for the first time Bradford looked like a rookie. He seemed to lose his poise early and missed quite a few open receivers. Yet even when they weren’t firing, the Rams still were good enough to destroy the Cardinals. Moreover, this defense is legit. The Saints have done well against strong defenses and should put up their share of points, but it’s asking a lot for them to win by 10. I figure 27-20 Saints, and I’m gonna put $110 to win $100 on St. Louis.



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8 Comments


  1. RJ

    Even though I got the pick right, the TEN-IND ending was slimy.

    I think that’s my gloat btw


  2. Vin
    Vin

    You know what’s crap? If they didn’t get that field goal to put the game away, they wouldn’t have gone into a soft d and would have covered.


  3. RJ

    They actually shoul’ve kicked the FG and then went for the onside kick. The Jeff Fisher Trying To Get Himself Fired Theory gains steam.


  4. Here are the teams likely to be looking for a new coach next season (plus Dallas and CAPS are certain):

    Dallas
    CAROLINA
    Minnesota
    San Francisco
    Houston
    Tennessee
    CINCINNATI
    DENVER
    Oakland

    Here are the teams that could be looking for a new coach next season:

    Washington
    Detroit
    Chicago
    Miami
    Cleveland
    Jacksonville
    Indianapolis
    San Diego

    I can never remember a situation where half of the league’s coaches could conceivably lose their jobs with four weeks to go.


  5. RJ

    I don’t think anybody on the bottom half is in danger. Not saying they’re great coaches, but I feel guys like Del Rio, Smith, and maybe even Mangini bought themselves at least another year. I also don’t think caldwell gets dumped (even though I don’t think he’s a great coach).

    then again it also depends on what guys outside of the NFL right now. I imagine Gruden wants a pro job, and I heard Cowher might be interested in getting back in.


  6. I’d love to see Cowher or Gruden go to SF!!! Speaking of the Niners, how bout that shellacking against Seattle today!!! Don’t you all know, never pick against Alex Smith ;)


  7. RJ

    All I know is for the weirdest reason, as soon as this game kicked off, I got this vibe that my lock was DOA, and the Seahawks had no chance.

    And what was up with that strange music they would play every time someone scored in this game? Billick would be doing the replay, but this music was drowning him out. Weirdest thing.


  8. Yeah, the music was really annoying. They mentioned it in the 2nd half about how they were trying something out, but it was really just ineffective and obnoxious if you ask me.



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