Who Is More Likely To Three Peat: USC Or New England?

Who is More Likely to Three-Peat: USC or New England?

By Adam Nelson

The last two coaches of the New England Patriots, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick, have something else in common- they’re both trying to lead their respective teams (USC and New England) to a third straight championship. Both teams have dominated football over the past two seasons; the Patriots have gone 34-4 (including playoff games). Pete Carroll and his USC Trojans have lost only one game since 2003, and that was a three-point overtime loss at Cal….23 games ago. Both teams have a great chance to three-peat this season, but who is more likely to? Let’s look in-depth at both teams and who is standing in the way of them making history this year:THE USC TROJANS

The USC Trojans have arguably the best quarterback in the nation in Heisman Trophy-winner Matt Leinart. Leinart has been sensational as a starter, compiling a 25-1 record, while throwing 69 touchdowns against only 14 interceptions.

They have a future first-rounder in running back Reggie Bush, who has 57 plays of 20 yards or more in just two seasons. Bush rushed for 866 yards and five touchdowns in 2004 as the backup. Bush’s best days are ahead of him- he’s still only a Junior. The starter at running back, LenDale White, rushed for 1103 yards in 2004 and had 17 total touchdowns.

USC’s defense is nearly as unstoppable, allowing a mere 169 points (13 a game) in 2004, while racking up 50 sacks and forcing 22 fumbles.

The loss of offensive coordinator Norm Chow could potentially be a cruel blow to the Trojans’ offensive game-planning, but the team has tremendous talent and should find someone capable of filling Chow’s shoes. Chow defected to the NFL to be the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans.

USC’s schedule offers very few big challenges; road trips to Notre Dame on October 15 and to Cal on November 12 loom as possible upsets, but neither team has near the talent that USC possesses. Four of USC’s final five games are at home, so they get the advantage of closing out their season in the friendly confines of the L.A. Coliseum.

There is no college football team in the nation that has as much talent as USC, and many of those that could potentially knock them out of the #1 spot and the national title picture have sustained big losses since the end of 2004; because of this, the chances of USC winning it all again in 2005 are huge. Here’s some of those teams:

Tennessee: lost starting running back Cedric Houston, and their 2005 schedule is too hard (road games against Alabama, Florida, LSU and Notre Dame)

Florida: lost running back Ciatrick Fason and linebacker Channing Crowder

LSU: must replace head coach Nick Saban, who left to coach the Miami Dolphins

Oklahoma: lost wide receivers Mark Clayton and Mark Bradley; lost defensive end Dan Cody; still reeling from last year’s 55-19 thrashing in the title game against USC

Cal: lost running back J.J.Arrington and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, their two best offensive players

Auburn: lost the dynamic duo of Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and Ronnie Brown at running back; starting QB Jason Campbell, and starting CB Carlos Rogers. All four were first-rounders. Ouch!

Michigan: lost wideout Braylon Edwards and starting cornerback Marlin Jackson

Miami (Fla): lost cornerback Antrel Rolle, wide receiver Roscoe Parrish and running back Frank Gore

Ohio State: lost kicker Mike Nugent, who has made many key kicks in his career as a Buckeye; schedule for 2005 includes road trip to Michigan in November

Texas: lost starting running back Cedric Benson and linebacker Derrick Johnson

Georgia: lost five starters- wide receivers Fred Gibson and Reggie Brown, safety Thomas Davis, quarterback David Greene and defensive end David Pollack

There are always upset possibilities, and a team could come out of nowhere and knock off the Trojans. An undefeated season is possible, but it’s hard to imagine them going through the whole year without losing once- that would be 35 straight wins.

THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Patriots have been hugely successful in what was supposed to be a parity-driven NFL. In an era of players constantly changing teams (“The Salary Cap Era”), the Patriots have kept the nucleus of their team together, while adding young and underpriced talent along the way.

The Patriots have done what only the Dallas Cowboys have done- win three titles in four years, which the Cowboys did from 1992 to 1995. The Pittsburgh Steelers of the `70s won four titles in six years. The San Francisco 49’ers won four titles in nine years during the 1980’s.

While the Patriots will give it everything they have to win a record third straight title (and a record fourth in five years), 31 other teams will be gunning for them. Unlike in college football, the Patriots are not a great deal ahead of the other teams. They’ve won only four more games than the Indianapolis Colts have over the past two seasons. The Philadelphia Eagles have won six more games (59) over the past five seasons than the Patriots have (53).

The Patriots have many teams in the AFC that can knock them off their perch:

The Indianapolis Colts- absolutely loaded on offense and are getting better on defense;

The San Diego Chargers- have a strong offense that helped lead them to a 12-4 mark last season, but they have a tough schedule;

The Pittsburgh Steelers- finished 15-1 in 2004, but “Big Ben” Roethlisberger will face some growing pains in his second year. Roethlisberger struggled down the stretch late last season and in the playoffs;

The New York Jets- finished 10-6 in 2004, but have ten games this season against teams that finished 8-8 or better last year;

The Baltimore Ravens- could also stand in the way of the Patriots because they have a great running game, talented new additions at wide receiver,  and an incredible defense. Their biggest question mark remains their quarterback, Kyle Boller. If he finally plays up to his potential, this team will be very good.

The NFC is a lot less talented than the AFC, but has its Super Bowl-caliber teams as well:

The Philadelphia Eagles- If T.O. can put his enormous ego aside, a fifth straight appearance in the NFC Championship game is highly probable.

The Atlanta Falcons- If the defense plays well, Michael Vick stays healthy and they continue to run the ball well and often.

The Carolina Panthers- Many are overlooking this team because they had so many injuries last year and went 7-9, but that’s a big mistake. They have one of the NFL’s best defenses, a young quarterback who is getting better every year, speedy receivers, and the best depth at running back of any team in the league besides Denver. They almost beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl two years ago; revenge would be sweet.

The Minnesota Vikings- No more Randy Moss, but they still have Daunte Culpepper at quarterback, a perennial 4000-yard passer. They also have the new edition of Troy Williamson at wideout, who is not nearly as good a receiver as Moss or as tall, but is just as fast, if not faster.

The Patriots have a star quarterback in Tom Brady, who has lost a mere 14 of his 73 career starts (including a 9-0 record in playoff games).

Running back Corey Dillon helps control the clock with his smash-mouth running style. He rushed for 1635 yards and 12 touchdowns in his first season as a member of the Patriots, after seven frustrating ones with the Cincinnati Bengals.

The receiving corps is small but very underrated, and there is severe competition as to who will make the roster. Deion Branch, a star in the making if he can stay healthy, caught 34 passes for 454 yards and four touchdowns. David Givens led all wideouts with 874 yards receiving and he had three touchdowns. Daniel Graham caught seven touchdown passes as a tight end. The Patriots also added Tim Dwight, who has the speed of a track star, and David Terrell, a teammate of Brady’s at the University of Michigan. They also have Bethel Johnson, a great kick returner, and the versatile wide receiver-cornerback Troy Brown.

The defense of the Patriots is one of the most feared of the NFL, despite the loss of linebackers Tedy Bruschi (recovering from a stroke) and Ted Johnson (retirement). The defense had 45 sacks and 20 interceptions. They have Willie McGinest, who led the team in sacks with 9 ½. Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour and Ty Warren help to anchor the 3-4 defense.

They have young talented corners in Randall Gay, Asante Samuel and Eugene Wilson, all of whom have played less than three seasons. They also have one of the hardest hitters in the league, Rodney Harrison, at safety.

Oh, yeah, they also have one of the best kickers in NFL history in Adam Vinatieri, who continues to play as if he has ice water in his veins.

NO team has ever won three straight Super Bowls in a row, let alone four in five years. That’s what stands in New England’s way- HISTORY.

New England also must deal with the monumental task of replacing its offensive and defensive coordinators, who both left after the Super Bowl. Offensive coodinator Charlie Weis left to coach Notre Dame. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel is now the head coach of the Cleveland Browns.

SUMMARY

It’s hard to bet against a team that has had this much success in such a short period of time (at least a share of first place in four straight seasons; three titles in four years), but the odds of New England repeating as champs again are just too high. The Colts keep coming so close, and it’s only a matter of time before they knock off the Patriots. There are also a lot of teams waiting in the wings to hoist that trophy this February in Detroit. USC has a much better chance to win it all in 2005, because there are fewer teams capable of knocking them off, and because their confidence is riding high after two straight titles and a win streak that’s at 22 and counting.