It’s football season! Every season, I give the excuse that week 1 is the hardest week to pick. But looking at the results from last season might give us some insight into what will happen this week. In the first week of 2010, 12 home teams won as well as 10 favorites. In a straight up pick, when in doubt, go with the home favorite.
As far as against the spread goes, think about picking dogs as Vegas/bettors often rate the favorites a little too high. Last year, 8 dogs won vs only 6 favorites, with only 2 backdoor covers.
The featured games this week are Saints @ Packers, Lions @ Bucs, Steelers @ Ravens, and Cowboys @ Jets.
By the way, for those of you on the “NY teams will win because of 9/11” bandwagon, Ryan wanted to remind you that it’s 9/11 for everyone.
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NFL Week 1 2011 Picks
Straight Up
| MATCHUP | Vegas Vinny | BostonMac | RJ | Burton | Actual |
| Saints @ Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | |
| Lions @ Bucs | Lions | Lions | Bucs | Bucs | |
| Colts @ Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | |
| Bills @ Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Bills | Chiefs | |
| Falcons @ Bears | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Ravens | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | |
| Bengals @ Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | |
| Titans @ Jaguars | Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | |
| Eagles @ Rams | Rams | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | |
| Seahawks @ Niners | Niners | Seahawks | Niners | Niners | |
| Vikings @ Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | |
| Giants @ Redskins | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | |
| Panthers @ Cards | Cards | Panthers | Cards | Cards | |
| Cowboys @ Jets | Jets | Cowboys | Cowboys | Jets | |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | |
| Raiders @ Denver | Raiders | Denver | Denver | Denver | |
| Prev Week | — | — | — | — | |
| Overall | — | — | — | — |
Against the Spread
| MATCHUP | Vegas Vinny | BostonMac | RJ | Burton | Actual |
| Saints @ Packers (-4.5) | Packers | Saints | Saints | Packers | |
| Lions @ Bucs (+2.5) | Lions | Lions | Bucs | Bucs | |
| Colts @ Texans (-9) | Colts | Texans | Texans | Colts | |
| Bills @ Chiefs (-6) | Chiefs | Chiefs | Bills | Chiefs | |
| Falcons @ Bears (+3) | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Bears | |
| Steelers @ Ravens (-2.5) | Ravens | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | |
| Bengals @ Browns (-6.5) | Bengals | Browns | Browns | Browns | |
| Titans @ Jaguars (-2.5) | Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | |
| Eagles @ Rams (+4.5) | Rams | Rams | Eagles | Eagles | |
| Seahawks @ Niners (-5) | Seahawks | Seahawks | Niners | Niners | |
| Vikings @ Chargers (-8.5) | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | |
| Giants @ Redskins (+3) | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | |
| Panthers @ Cards (-7) | Cards | Panthers | Cards | Panthers | |
| Cowboys @ Jets (-4.5) | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Jets | |
| Patriots @ Dolphins (+7) | Patriots | Dolphins | Patriots | Patriots | |
| Raiders @ Denver (-3) | Raiders | Denver | Denver | Denver | |
| Prev Week | — | — | — | — | |
| Overall | — | — | — | — |
Locks of the Week
Vegas Vinny: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) .
BostonMac: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) Atlanta at Chicago looks like a good game… if it were still 2010 and these two teams hadn’t gone in complete opposite directions since then. While the Falcons were busy loading up on Julio Jones, Ray Edwards, and their defensive backfield, the Bears sat idle and didn’t address their weak O-line,cut two key 2010 free agent signings who were supposed to contribute, and are now dealing with a disgruntled Lance Briggs. This game only has a close line on the Bears’ reputation, while the reality is that Chicago is going to be a lot closer to the NFC North basement this year than the penthouse. Easy money for Matt Ryan and co. $55 to win $50 on ATLANTA (-3).
RJ: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) Most experts (and homeless people for that matter) agree that the Chargers and Vikings were two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL last season. Both teams expected Super Bowl appearances and ended up missing the playoffs. With one team, however, there was good reason. Captain Dick Pick Six struggled, Randy Moss was only there long enough to complain about the catering, the defense collapsed and Brad Childress was mercifully shown the door by November. San Diego, meanwhile, played well all season only to see special teams undermine a top five team in the other two categories. The Chargers will back bounce with all that talent. The Vikings signed Donovan McNabb. Do that math, then take the CHARGERS (-8.5) to get off to a great start. $55/50.
Burton: (0-0, Balance =$1,000) Oakland sucks royally. Seriously, three points here means Vegas might as well pay out on Denver covering today. This game will be over before the 1pm games kick off. $110 to win $100 on Denver (-3)