It’s hard to believe it’s time for the Thanksgiving Day games already. This is the week that begins the real playoff push for many teams and jockeying for home field advantage. If your team can’t step it up post-Thanksgiving, you’re toast. The featured games this week are the Colts at the Texans, Cardinals at the Titans, Steelers at the Ravens, and Patriots at the Saints.

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NFL Week 12 2009 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP	Vegas Vinny	BostonMac	RJ	Peso*	Actual
Packers @ Lions	Packers	Packers	Packers	Lions
Raiders @ Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Giants @ Broncos	Giants	Giants	Broncos	Broncos
Bucs @ Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Redskins @ Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Seahawks @ Rams	Rams	Rams	Seahawks	Seahawks
Panthers @ Jets	Jets	Jets	Panthers	Jets
Colts @ Texans	Texans	Texans	Colts	Colts
Dolphins @ Bills	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Browns @ Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Jaguars @ Niners	Niners	Niners	Niners	Niners
Chiefs @ Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chiefs
Cards @ Titans	Cards	Titans	Titans	Titans
Bears @ Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Steelers @ Ravens	Steelers	Ravens	Steelers	Ravens
Patriots @ Saints	Patriots	Saints	Saints	Saints
Prev Week	12-4 (.750)	13-3 (.813)	12-4 (.750)	10-6 (.625))
Overall	107-53 (.669)	105-55 (.656)	101-59 (.631)	85-75 (.531)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP	Vegas Vinny	BostonMac	RJ	Peso*	Actual
Packers @ Lions (+11)	Packers	Packers	Packers	Lions
Raiders @ Cowboys (-13.5)	Raiders	Raiders	Cowboys	Cowboys
Giants @ Broncos (+7)	Giants	Giants	Broncos	Broncos
Bucs @ Falcons (-12.5)	Falcons	Bucs	Falcons	Falcons
Redskins @ Eagles (-9.5)	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Seahawks @ Rams (+3)	Rams	Rams	Seahawks	Seahawks
Panthers @ Jets (-3)	Jets	Jets	Panthers	Jets
Colts @ Texans (+3.5)	Texans	Texans	Colts	Texans
Dolphins @ Bills (+3.5)	Dolphins	Bills	Dolphins	Dolphins
Browns @ Bengals (-14)	Bengals	Bengals	Browns	Bengals
Jaguars @ Niners (-3.5)	Niners	Jaguars	Niners	Niners
Chiefs @ Chargers (-13.5)	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chiefs
Cards @ Titans (-3)	Cards	Titans	Titans	Cards
Bears @ Vikings (-11)	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Bears
Steelers @ Ravens (-2)	Steelers	Ravens	Steelers	Ravens
Patriots @ Saints (-3)	Patriots	Saints	Saints	Saints
Prev Week	7-9 (.438)	9-7 (.563)	11-5 (.688)	13-3 (.813)
Overall	83-76 (.522)	78-81 (.491)	77-82 (.484)	82-77 (.516)

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (5-6, Balance =$715) You know you’re in for a doozy when the over/under is 56 points. The monday night game is expected to be a shootout between the Saints and Pats. All eyes will be on Bill Belichick in this national game as every coaching move will be scrutinized. After all, this is the first game since his questionable call vs the Colts. (Yes, I know they played the Jets last week but only two markets tuned in for that one.) The over/under on number of replays of the 4th down play in Indy is 27 times.

The over/under line on the score reflects the general assessment of the bettors on the bad defenses of both teams. Your goal is to figure out which one is worse. While the Saints usually have that distinction, the Patriots defense playing so poorly is the reason for the drama at the end of the Colts game. (Well, that and Peyton Manning.) While I have no doubt that Drew Brees and company will put up a bunch of points, the decimated Saints secondary is what will negate the home field advantage. Tracy Porter is out and both Greer and Gay are questionable. Expect a big day out of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. I won’t turn down the points but I think NE wins outright. $55 to win $50 on the Patriots (+3).

BostonMac: (8-3, Balance = $1,385) Thanksgiving is tomorrow so I’ll make this short and sweet. Last week the Chiefs made it a two-game winning streak for the first time since 2007. It won’t be a three game streak. $55 to win $50 on SAN DIEGO (-13.5) to keep it rolling in the AFC West.

RJ: (4-7, Balance = $915) Arizona has been 5-0 on the road so far, but with a banged-up Kurt Warner facing a tougher Tennessee defense and the reemergence of Vince Young should end that this week. The Titans (-3) are playing with too much confidence right now. $55 to win $50.