Fantasy Football Preview – Quarterbacks

Fantasy football is just around the corner and the hundreds of thousands of people who play every year can smell it.  For everyone, this is going to be the year.  This year, you’re going to take the trophy back from Bill in accounting.  However, in order for these early title dreams to come true in January, you need to be prepared.  If you aren’t ready for curveballs, you may find yourself calling out “Chad Pennington!” with your first pick amongst the confusion.  

There are so many areas you need to be prepared for, but none is more important than quarterback.  Many experts may say that running backs are more important, but in most leagues, it’s the quarterback that typically scores the most points in a given week.  Also, in most leagues, you only use one quarterback, whereas you use two running backs.  This gives you two chances for success in the back field, but only one shot at a good signal caller.  Hopefully, a little categorization of the ample amount of quarterbacks in the field will help ease some pain come draft day.
Ace in the Hole

Peyton Manning (Indianapolis) – He is only guy who can be counted on to give you production week in and week out.  Many question how he will do without Edgerrin James, but the Colts still have plenty of weapons (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, one of the best O-lines in the league…)

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Best of the Rest

Tom Brady (New England) – Brady is solid.  He has weapons, he has a cannon arm, he’s deadly accurate, and he’s smart.  The New England captain should be taken as the second quarterback overall, probably around the third or fourth round.
Carson Palmer (Cincinnati) – Palmer would be up there with Manning if he hadn’t suffered that nasty injury in the playoffs last year.  There hasn’t been much news on his recovery, which is likely a good thing.  He might miss the first game of the year at most and it may take him a few weeks to warm up, but once he finds his “A” game, look for numbers much like last year, if not better.
Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle) – After many rough years of failing to meet expectations, Hasselbeck really came into a zone in 2005.  There haven’t been any major changes in Seattle, so there is no reason to expect any drop off.
Eli Manning (NY Giants) – This guy is really going to be good.  He starts this year in the second tier, but don’t be surprised if he’s considered a top 2-3 quarterback after this season.  Eli likely won’t progress past his brother in `06, but his time will come.
Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia) – Many seem to be forgetting just how good of a quarterback McNabb was before T.O. decided to sabotage him.  If he can stay healthy, expect about 3500 yards and 25 TDs.  This is right about where he was before the T.O. era.
Marc Bulger (St. Louis) – Marc Bulger may be a bit inconsistent and may make some questionable decisions from time to time, but that was mostly a product of Mike Martz.  With Martz out of the picture, they will rely more on the run, opening up the pass and allowing Bulger to feel more comfortable in the offense.

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Fringe Fantasy Starters

Jake Delhomme (Carolina) – Delhomme is much like Tom Brady was a few years ago.  He’s a winner, but it often doesn’t equate into great fantasy numbers.  He may have the skills to put up better numbers, but don’t expect too much this year.  If you take him as your first quarterback, draft a good backup too in case he doesn’t give you the production you want.
Jake Plummer (Denver) – Plummer is probably the best of these “fringe starters”.  He really had a breakout season last year and the addition of Javon Walker will help the cause.
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) – 2006 could be Big Ben’s coming out party.  With the retirement of Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh will have to lean on Willie Parker for their ground production.  This will lead to more opportunities for Roethlisberger, which will likely lead to better numbers.
Michael Vick (Atlanta) – Many people still believe that Vick can live up to his expectations one day and become that ultimate QB/RB.  However, since coming into the West Coast offense, he has digressed rather than progressed.  If you take him as your starter, you better get a very good backup for insurance.

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Wiley Ol’ Vets

Trent Green (Kansas City) – Despite his aging body, Trent Green is still putting up awesome numbers.  With the help of the many weapons surrounding him in Kansas City, he threw for over 4000 yards for the third straight season.  We have no reason to expect a decline now.
Brett Favre (Green Bay) – Brett Favre may still be a good quarterback, but the team around him is so bad, we may never know it.  He throws so many interceptions that he could end up giving your team just as many negative points as positive in a given week.
Drew Bledsoe (Dallas) – After falling off the map for a few years, Bledsoe broke out last year as a top quarterback.  He may not quite live up to those numbers again in ’06, but he will certainly be helped (at least in the first year) by the arrival of T.O.
Mark Brunell (Washington) – This was another guy who was very steady last year.  He rode the emergence of Santana Moss and the addition of Antwaan Randle El will improve his situation even more.  Brunell is a solid backup.
Brad Johnson (Minnesota) – Johnson was the savior for Minnesota last year, but wasn’t able to save too many fantasy teams.  He will make a good fantasy backup in 2006, but if you’re expecting him to be your every week starter, you may be in trouble.
Kurt Warner (Arizona) – Warner would be in a great position in this up and coming offense if it weren’t for a guy named Matt Leinart looming in the background.  If Warner can keep the job, he will easily be a starting caliber quarterback on your fantasy team.  Draft him as a backup and determine what to do with him as the season progresses.

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Old Faces, New Places

Daunte Culpepper (Miami) – Miami finally gets their first good quarterback since Dan Marino.  Culpepper should thrive in Miami with Chris Chambers and Ronnie Brown.  He is coming off an ugly knee injury, but had an encouraging workout on Friday.  He hasn’t been ruled out for the season opener, but grabbing Joey Harrington for insurance might not be a bad idea in case Culpepper can’t go.
Drew Brees (New Orleans) – Here’s a guy who won’t be helped by the change of venue.  The Saints are a wreck right now and, although Reggie Bush may be helpful, he certainly won’t be a savior of biblical proportions.  Brees is also coming off a shoulder injury; another reason to keep away.
Aaron Brooks (Oakland) – This poor guy jumps from one mess to another.  He should get along well with Randy Moss as both are extremely inconsistent.  Moss only plays when he feels like it and Brooks just makes horrible decisions.  Sounds like a winning combo…
Jon Kitna (Detroit) – Detroit may actually be just what the doctor ordered for Kitna’s career.  We all saw what he was able to do with the up and coming Bengals in 2003, before Carson Palmer booted him out.  The Lions actually look a lot like the Bengals did back then; just waiting to break out.
Steve McNair (Baltimore) – A change of scenery will help McNair, but it won’t change the fact that he is aging.  He’s injury prone and steps into an offense that’s just as bad as the one he departed.

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Watch Your Back

Byron Leftwich (Jacksonville) – Byron is a good quarterback, but after last season, he will now be compared to David Garrard as long as both of them are in Jacksonville.  One slip up and Leftwich may find himself playing second fiddle.
Billy Volek (Tennessee) – Volek finally gets his chance to begin a season as a starting quarterback.  Unfortunately, his backup just happened to arguably be the best player in college football last year, who almost single-handedly won the Rose Bowl.  That may be an issue if Tennessee decides the season is a lost cause.
Rex Grossman (Chicago) – Grossman has been very injury prone in the past and doesn’t have a full season under his belt in 3 years.  The Bears are fed up and have brought in Brian Griese; a guy who may end up as the starter in Chicago, even if Grossman miraculously doesn’t get hurt.

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Show Me Something, Young Blood

Chris Simms (Tampa Bay) – Simms had a decent season last year, but it still didn’t meet expectations.  He needs to follow it up with an even better season or he may be benched in favor of the younger Luke McCown.
Philip Rivers (San Diego) – With the departure of Drew Brees, Rivers is left to fill the glaring quarterback hole.  This is a team capable of making the playoffs and going deep.  Rivers needs to prove that he can be a winning quarterback.
David Carr (Houston) – Carr recently received a new contract and nobody is quite sure why.  Many say that his troubles have come from a bad line, but there is no evidence to prove that the problem isn’t just as much the fault of Carr himself.  Houston improved their line in the off season, so if Carr doesn’t break out this year, his career as a starter may be over.
Charlie Frye (Cleveland) – With Trent Dilfer out of the way, Frye has inherited the starting job in Cleveland.  In his rookie season last year, Frye didn’t look too bad.  However, he needs to build on that to prove he can become a prime time player in the NFL.
Alex Smith (San Francisco) – On the flipside, “Small-hands” didn’t look so hot in his rookie season last year.  He threw 11 interceptions and only one touchdown to go along with a fumbling problem.  Smith really needs to show San Francisco something, because another year like that and he could be dubbed the next Joey Harrington.
J.P. Losman (Buffalo) – Losman will likely start the season with the first team, but the Bills won’t be afraid to use Kelly Holcomb if need be.  Losman had a few decent games last year, but just as many ugly ones as well.  Don’t draft Losman under any circumstances.
Chad Pennington (NY Jets) – Although Pennington isn’t exactly young at age 30, he definitely has something to prove.  He has fallen way off the radar of the top quarterbacks and will have to struggle to hang on to his starting gig this year, with Patrick Ramsey in the background.  He must stay healthy and prove he can lead his team to wins.

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Put Me in Coach

Josh McCown (Detroit) – McCown played pretty well in Arizona, but was dumped in favor of Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart.  Now he just needs Jon Kitna out of his way to take control of a young Detroit offense just waiting for a leader.
Brian Griese (Chicago) – If something happens to Grossman, this is definitely a guy you’d want to pick up on the waiver wire.  He’s had good seasons with bad offenses in Denver and Tampa Bay so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t play well in Chicago.
Matt Leinart (Arizona) – Don’t draft Leinart unless you are in a keeper league.  He’s going to be playing behind Kurt Warner most of the season, so there’s no reason to have him taking up a roster spot.  However, if Warner goes down, pick him up because any quarterback could play well in that Arizona offense, including a rookie.
Vince Young (Tennessee) – Young is going to be a very good player in the NFL, but even if Volek loses the job, he probably won’t do very much this season.  Tennessee’s offense isn’t very good, so don’t expect a rookie quarterback to do very much.  Draft him only in keeper leagues and don’t get caught up in the hype of his college career.

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With all of that said, I give you the top 10 quarterbacks for the 2006 season:
1.    Peyton Manning
2.    Tom Brady
3.    Carson Palmer
4.    Matt Hasselbeck
5.    Donovan McNabb
6.    Eli Manning
7.    Marc Bulger
8.    Trent Green
9.    Jake Plummer
10.    Jake Delhomme
Honorable Mention:  Ben Roethlisberger, Daunte Culpepper, Kurt Warner, Drew Bledsoe, Mark Brunell, and Michael Vick