2006 NBA Playoffs – First Round Picks and Analysis

The winner of the Eastern Conference has always been predetermined due to the lack of competition. This season has been no different as the 5th-8th seeds are separated by half a game to one game. And none of the teams offer much resistence to the Detroit Pistons.

Meanwhile, in the West, things look (a little) more competitive, even in the first round matchups. Here is your first round playoff preview.

Eastern Conference

(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks

The word “successful” does not do justice to the Pistons’ season. Though the team did not break the 72-10 record set by the Chicago Bulls, they clearly set themselves apart from the entire NBA. Many would think a major defensive effort led to their success but quite the opposite as Flip Saunders opened Paradox’s Box which contained the Piston’s latent offense. Though the coaching change made Detroit a worse defensive team compared to last season, their offensive production made them better overall. The only crack in the armor is the Pistons depth. They solely rely on Lindsey Hunter and Antonio McDyess to carry them off the bench. I do not think it is much of a problem when you have the best starting five in the NBA, but a good bench is nice to have.

The Milwaukee Bucks have found a way to make the playoffs after a one year absence. I consider the resurgence of the guards to be the main reason for this. T.J. Ford has somehow avoided injury and played the majority of the season. Michael Redd’s stroke stayed consistent as ever; he truly earned his max contract this season. Finally, Maurice Williams played superbly as a backup point guard; he was a possible candidate for Sixth Man of the Year, but he was plagued with injuries in the last few months.

This matchup, like many others, has already been decided. The Bucks will get beaten. No question.

Final: Pistons 4-0. The Bucks will win games if the Pistons just get lazy.

(2) Miami Heat vs (7) Chicago Bulls

The Heat got off to a rocky start with a record just barely over .500. The main reason, of course, was the injury Shaq suffered at the hands (or perhaps the feet) of Ron Artest. Though Mourning did a superb job of filling in for the Big Aristotle, the team surely missed the amount of attention Shaq drew and the inside-out game he provided. When Shaq returned, all was better, and the team cruised to a 50 win season and second seed in the East. On a sidenote, this is the main reason I cannot give the MVP award to Dwayne Wade.

How did this happen? Like the Heat, the Bulls had a rough start, feeling the after effects of losing Eddy Curry’s inside game and post presence. The Bulls became very perimeter-oriented and were unable to close out games with the easy points in the paint. Big men like Harrington and injury-plagued Chandler were unable to fill-in the void left by Curry. The team would continue to be under .500 throughout the season, unable to find any momentum with any of the new rotations Skiles implemented. However, the Bulls profited from playing in the worst division in all of basketball and were just within striking distance of the Philadelphia 76ers. The latter team began to lose numerous games because Iverson and Webber went down with injuries. Inspired by a possible return to the playoffs, the Bulls won critical games and with the help of (guess who) the Miami Heat, the Bulls ousted the 76ers from the playoff picture. The Heat, who had the second seed well intact, rested Shaq and Wade for half the game, leading to a Bulls blowout.

The Bulls can thank the Heat but only after they get beaten. Not much to discuss here either. Gordon will probably go cold, Hinrich will be inconsistent, and nobody will be able to guard Shaq (not like anyone has been able to).

Final: Heat 4-0. The Heat know who the real challenge is. Let’s just get this over with.

(3) New Jersey Nets vs (6) Indiana Pacers

There were high hopes for the New Jersey Nets this year. The big three of Carter, Kidd, and Jefferson were starting their second year with one another. Initially, they were just hopes as the Nets were barely over .500 and had the 76ers breathing down their necks. However, come the second half of the season, the Nets went on a ferocious run that reached its peak in a 14 game win streak. They would continue to run for an uncontested Atlantic Division Title.

The Pacers had a tumultuous off-court issues season once again. The off-court issues were perhaps for the better as the team completely rid itself of the Artest influence and acquired a quality player in Peja Stojakovic. Unfortunately, due to injuries from O’Neal and of course, Jamaal Tinsley, the Pacers had a roller-coaster season and were quickly slipping out of the playoffs. Fortunately, a few more wins kept them in at 6th seed.

This is an interesting matchup. Though the records clearly show that the Nets are the better team, the Nets do not have a post-presence. O’Neal practically has full reign in this series which could be a problem. The Nets’ advantage lies in the fact that they actually have a point guard, and I believe Kidd will be the difference maker. Give Kidd two very good options in Carter and Jefferson and enjoy the show.

Final: Nets 4-2 or 4-3. If the Pacers steal the first game, then expect this to go to seven games.

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) Washington Wizards

Lebron James has made it to the postseason. The team missed it the last two years by two games or so combined. This season, James has shattered all expectations and has single-handedly led his team to 50 wins. Hughes and Ilgauskas have either been injured and just not have played well. James has made it to the big stage, so let’s see what he can do.

The Wizards’ success depended on finding a replacement for Hughes. They found one in Caron Butler who is a ferocious scorer. Unfortunately, the trio of Arenas, Jamison, and Butler did not produce the results people expected as the Wizards stayed around .500 for most of the season. However, near the all-star break, Arenas picked up his game, disappointed with not being named to the all-star game. He did make the roster but only because of Jermaine O’Neal’s injury. The Wizards were back on the winning track; they almost lost it in the end, but two wins practically boosted them from 8th seed to 5th seed. Good job, guys. No Pistons.

Part of me thinks this is staged as Larry Hughes will be meeting his former team in the first round. Well, I am glad that they are meeting because I expect Hughes to play out of his mind regardless of his finger. Despite the record, I do not believe Cleveland is that good of a team, and the Wizards will be a challenge for them. They will go to seven games because the trio of Arenas, Butler, and Jamison is much more athletic than James, Hughes, and Ilgasukas.

Final: Cavaliers 4-3. Lebron James will win it for his team in Game 7.

Like the West, I am not predicting any upsets, but the lower half of the bracket will be very competitive. I hope everyone enjoys Saturday, especially if you are like me and watch the entire four games.

Western Conference

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs (8) Sacramento Kings

The Spurs as 1st seed is no surprise as they have been one of the most consistent winning ball clubs since their first championship in 1999. They have an excellent coach and unselfish team mentality. The Kings, on the other hand, are a surprise, having been one of the more successful franchises in the last five years. On the verge of winning the championship in 2002, Robert Horry and the Lakers stopped them in their tracks. They have been unable to rebound since then and just barely made the playoffs this season.

The Kings have little to no chance of beating the Spurs, and it has more to do with how good the Spurs are and not how bad the Kings are. Even with Duncan hobbling about with injuries, the Spurs won sixty games this year which shows how good they play as a team. This will be seen in the playoffs. The Kings are still roughly a new team, trying to find a way to incorporate Artest in their system. They have been successful, but Artest’s thumb injury will complicate matters. The Kings only hope is Mike Bibby catching on fire. This is the reason the Kings won the last game these two teams played.

Unfortunately for the Kings, the Spurs have experienced many playoff letdowns (notably the ones with the Lakers) that they know nothing is handed to you when it comes to the NBA Championship. They will be all business as usual this postseason.

Final: Spurs 4-1. The Spurs may seem vulnerable because of Duncan’s injury, but you cannot forget the improvement of Tony Parker who is the catalyst on this team. I give the Kings one victory because I expect the star power of Bibby, Artest, Miller, Wells, and Abdur-rahim to overwhelm the Spurs just one time at Arco Arena. It will be a short series as the Spurs will want to rest the Big Fundamental.

(2) Phoenix Suns vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

Despite no Amare Stoudemire, The Suns raced to a Pacific Division title and second seed overall in the West. Led by potential MVP Steve Nash, underrated Shawn Marion, and potential Most Improved Player Boris Diaw, the Suns expect no less than the NBA championship. Unlike last year, the Suns have a bench composed of gunners (House, Jones, Barbosa) and defensive-minded players (Grant, Tim Thomas). It is a much different team compared to last season, but they have definitely improved.  

The Lakers have returned to the playoffs after a one year absence. There were two difference makers: Kobe did not get injured and had a MVP-type season and Lamar Odom’s improved play. With Lamar Odom being a facilitator, Kobe has not worried about getting his team involved. He defined his role and has taken more jump shots than all his other seasons. This has led to his increased scoring. Odom is averaging six assists a game and may be starting to show traces of Scottie Pippen’s greatness. I’ll stop there because Odom has a long ways to go, but he is definitely the second reason for the team’s success.

It appears the Lakers won five straight at home just so they could choose the better of the two evils. The Lakers do not have a chance against the Spurs, but they could beat Phoenix. It’s a very slim chance, but Phoenix has those nights when they let teams score 140 points. The league’s scoring leader and possible MVP Kobe Bryant will definitely take advantage.

Another reason why the Lakers have a chance is that Phoenix may pick up more injuries. Though he is still Kwame Brown, his recent improvement may make Kurt Thomas’ injury and Phoenix’s slim backcourt apparent. In addition, Nash’s neck and shoulder injuries (which led to his resting this last week of the season) may aggravate more. We definitely know what happens to the Suns team without Steve Nash

Unfortunately, I remember when the Suns let Kobe score 50 points against them, but they still beat the Lakers by ten points. Phoenix is content with letting Kobe score as long as they can stop the other players. Finally, if I am not mistaken, Phoenix has won six of the last seven meetings.

Final: Suns 4-2. Kobe will somehow win two games in crunch time. Otherwise, expect blowouts or just convincing victories for the Phoenix Suns.

(3) Denver Nuggets vs (6) Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers had one heck of a breakout season, almost reaching the fifty win mark. Though Brand is a MVP candidate, Sam Cassell is the real reason this team is as good as they are. In addition, the Clippers have kept their squad pretty consistent since Brand’s 1st season some five years ago. Players like Ross, Maggette, Kaman, and Brand have played together for some time.

The Nuggets have enjoyed the luxury of playing in the Northwest Division as they have won the division title without much competition. They are third seed but are not that great. Denver has always been hyped, and it will be apparent in the playoffs because the fifth-eighth seeds can give them a run for their money. Need more evidence? Eight seeded Sacramento and Denver have the same record of 44-38.

This is a interesting matchup because both teams are equally skilled. Each team just has a few issues that prevent them from being one of the elite in the West. I give the nod to the Clippers because Denver has yet to capitalize on its talent. Every year is supposed to be a breakout year for them with players like Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby, but it never works out. The city still cares more about Kobe than their own team.

Final: Clippers 4-3. Either Sam Cassell or Elton Brand will carry the team to victory in a game 7.

(4) Dallas Mavericks vs (5) Memphis Grizzlies

Having been labeled soft for their lack of an inside game, the Mavericks under Avery Johnson have instilled a defensive mentality that has made them very successful this season. Unfortunately, they must prove themselves in the playoffs if they want to be part of the West powerhouses. That is why the Mavericks will take nothing short of the championship as a success. Unfortunately for them, things will not start on the right foot as they will receive the fourth seed in return for the second best record in the Western Conference.

To add insult to injury, the team will face the Memphis Grizzlies who for the first time will not enter the playoffs struggling. The last two years, the Grizzlies were swept in the first round because they had a losing streak entering the playoffs. This postseason will be different for them against Dallas. With players like potential MVP Pau Gasol, potential Sixth Man Mike Miller, and most importantly, a set rotation, The Grizzlies can at least put up a fight against the Mavericks.

Final: Mavericks 4-2. The Mavericks have never really had much luck in the postseason, so I’m expecting a few jitters. Pau Gasol’s inside game will probably torch Diop and Dampier enough to win games. Eventually, the Mavericks’ firepower, defense (yes they have one), and Marc Cuban’s enthusiasm will overpower them.