Who want’s to get swept?

If you’re not an NBA fan in the cities of Dallas, Detroit, San Antonio, Phoenix, and Miami you may not have gotten a lot out of my last article.  You see…that article was written to let you all know who is going to win the NBA championship this year.  It is going to be one of those five teams.  So I gave my opinion on who had the chance to get by Detroit and San Antonio, but I realized something today…that making the playoffs would be just as exciting for cities like Chicago, Boston, Golden State, Minnesota, Utah, Houston, Sacramento, and Milwaukee as one of the top five teams actually winning it all.  Most teams have got 25 runs to go, and this is the time of the season where you can actually calculate the “magic number” for some teams to wrap up playoff spots.  It is also the time of the year where you can write teams off (sorry Charlotte, Atlanta, New York, Toronto, Orlando, Seattle, and Portland) and wish them good luck in the lottery.  At this point in time in the NBA season there is a legit cutoff point between teams that are still in it, and teams that are not.  That point is 5 games.  If there are more than 5 games between you and the final playoff spot in the conference, start thinking spoilerYou see I have devised a system that lets you know if your team actually has a shot to make that 8th seed.  Actually it isn’t a system, just common sense.  With 25 games to go, these “bubble” teams need to start taking the season in five-game blocs.  They need to figure that they need to win 3 of 5 and the 8th seed needs to only get 2 of 5.  This way, you will gain a game every week and half and be right there by the time the season is in the final weekend.  Of course the schedule starts to play a big role here as we will see, but the bottom line, unless somebody like Toronto runs off 10 in a row and Philadelphia only gets 2 of 10, the system makes sense.  Come on, how many of you think Toronto can put together 10 in a row?  So anyway, here is a breakdown of the 8th seed races in both conferences, and who has the best chance at getting crushed in the first round by Dallas/San Antonio or Detroit.

Out east…

I believe the final two seeds are going to be up for grabs in the east by the time late April rolls around.  The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers have the spots at present, but who is to say what happens in the closing months.  The two teams giving chase are the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls.  With the Sixers and Bucks only separated by a game in the win column, the bulls trail the Sixers by 3 and the Celtics trail by 5.  All of these teams have split their last 10 games (5-5) and seem destined to play .500 ball the rest of the way.  That would be just fine for Philly and Milwaukee.  However, things that should be noted are that the Bucks have the hardest remaining schedule with the opponent average at .483.  And the Sixers have 14 road games left as opposed to 12 at home.  With a little luck the Bulls and C’s might find themselves in the playoffs.  It isn’t that easy though.  Both Chicago and Boston have 13 at home and 13 on the road, and Philadelphia has the easiest remaining schedule to go (.464).  Where the two trailers could catch a break is head to head games.  They each have 1 game with Milwaukee and 2 games with Philadelphia, as well as 2 against each other.  The remaining schedule for both Chicago and Boston is not that perilous, Chicago’s average opponent winning percentage is .480 and Boston’s opponents have an average of .483.  If and only if Boston and Chicago can keep themselves within 2 games with 5 to go, the schedule will make or break everyone’s chance of making the playoffs.  The Celtics have it hard in their last 2 weeks (@Indiana, New Jersey, @New Jersey, Cleveland, and Miami).  That is not good news for the Celtics who are the one’s in the deepest hole.  The Bulls have it the easiest with games at Atlanta, Washington, at Miami, at Orlando, and finally at home against Toronto.  The Sixers have 4 of the last 5 on the road this season (@ N.J., @Miami, @Orlando, and @Charlotte) with a home game against New Jersey thrown in also.  Lastly Milwaukee has to play a home-home with Washington, Detroit and Atlanta at home, and then make a trip to New York against the Knicks.  What’s the diagnosis? The Celtics are not making the playoffs with this schedule.  They may be playing good coming off that road trip, and Pierce is willing his team to win, but the sked is too hard.  I think it will come down to Chicago and Milwaukee for the last spot and will most likely go to Chicago.  The Bucks have really dropped off because of injuries and the Bulls just seem to have an easier road when it gets to be crunch time.

The west is wild, pardon the pun.  Only four games separate 6 teams in the race for the final seed with the Lakers clinging to a one and half game lead over Sacramento and Utah.  However, other teams are giving chase and cannot be counted out just yet, Houston, Golden State, and Minnesota.  To save some time here are these teams’ remaining opponents win percentage, home/road games left, and games behind.  

L.A. Lakers    .536    14/home-11/road
Sacramento     .527    11/home-15/road    -1 ½   
Utah        .515    14/home-12/road    -1 ½   
Golden State    .500    11/home-15/road    -3 ½   
Minnesota    .474    12/home-14/road    -3 ½   
Houston    .547    14/home-11/road     -4

Right away it seems like each team has a bit of a hill to climb, even the Lakers.  The Rockets and Lakers have difficult schedules, Sactown and G.S. have 4 more road games than home games, and Minnesota is three and half back. Utah might have the best chance to get the last spot with a decent schedule and a couple of more home games.  Once again the last two weeks of the season will most likely tell the story.  Each team’s last five:

Lakers- all at home: Clippers, Warriors, Blazers, Suns, Hornets
Kings- 4 of 5 at home: Rockets, Suns, @ Nuggets, Hornets, Sonics
Jazz- 3 of 5 on the road: Nuggets, @ Hornets, @ Mavericks, @ Spurs, Warriors
Warriors- 3of 5 at home: Mavs, Suns, @Blazers, Blazers, @ Jazz
T-Wolves- 3 of 5 on the road: @ Grizzlies, @ Rockets, @ Pacers, Spurs, Grizzlies
Rockets- 3 of 5 at home: @ Jazz, T-Wolves, Grizzlies, @ Nuggets, Spurs

The final week is nice for the Lakers, all at home and brutal for the Rockets, Jazz, and T-Wolves.  While things could be okay for teams like Minnesota and Golden State as far as opponents winning percentage goes, they still have more road games to go than home games.  Houston could make things interesting, now that everyone is healthy, they might have a chance to catch the Lakers, even though they are 4 back, but they are going to have to face a team either in the playoffs or fighting for a spot just about every night.  What do I foresee?  I think it will be between the Lakers and Jazz when the season dwindles down.  The schedule will get too tough for teams like the Rockets, Jazz, Warriors, and T-Wolves.  Plus a lot of these teams will trade wins with each other and not gain any ground on the Lakers anyway.  I will go out on a limb and say the Lakers will make the playoffs, even though I would root for anyone trying to catch them and take them out.  Kobe has some strokes of genius and he’ll probably score forty or more in the final ten games of the season just to make sure they win.  

Really though, for those on the outside looking in and those clinging to their playoff spots, it is all futile.  You are getting swept in the first round.