By: Rob LaBrie
The two conference championship games include two very intriguing match-ups. On the AFC side you have the red-hot Pittsburgh Steelers going to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos. Pittsburgh is coming off a confidence-building win over the choke-artist Colts. However, Denver hasn’t lost at home all year and last week they handled the Patriots behind a solid defensive effort and a plethora of mistakes on the part of New England. In the NFC, you have the Seattle Seahawks, a trendy Super Bowl pick coming into the playoffs, at home against the Carolina Steve Smith’s… I mean… Panthers. Seattle also went undefeated at home this season including a win against the Redskins in the Divisional round. The Panthers managed to get to this game through great defense and clutch performances by Steve Smith over the last two weeks.
There is no doubt that for about three and a half quarters, the Steelers dominated the Colts last week. The Broncos also took care of New England without ever giving up much ground once they took the lead. However, neither team will have it easy this week. The Steelers and Broncos are two of the most physical teams in the NFL. On offense, both teams love to run, run, then run some more. However, the Broncos have a very good front seven, led by Al Wilson, Ian Gold and a group of lineman aquired from Cleveland in the off-season. Pittsburgh’s defense is strong in all aspects. Their leaders are safety Troy Polamalu and linebacker Joey Porter, both of whom will certainly play a role in stopping Denver’s dual running attack of Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. Ron Dayne could also play a role in Denver’s offense with his physical style. As for the Denver passing attack, Jake Plummer has had a great season, throwing only 7 interceptions all season. Rod Smith has been a good veteran target for Plummer and Ashley Lelie has been a decent compliment. Jeb Putzier has also had a nice season at tight end for the Broncos, but he will likely play only a small role in this game as Pittsburgh’s solid core of linebacker’s should be able to handle him. Pittsburgh’s blitz was what killed the Colts dream season last week, but they’ll have to be on their toes this week because Denver is sure to run the ball much more than Indy did. If Pittsburgh can stop the run in the beginning of the game, they could possibly get a lead, forcing Denver to pass the ball more than they would like. This is where Pittsburgh could get an advantage.
When Pittsburgh has the ball, Denver must use the speed of Al Wilson to contain Willie Parker. They must also utilize the strength and physical presence of their offensive line to contain the Bus. Denver needs to force Ben Roethlisberger into passing situations as this is not the Steelers strength. However, while Denver’s secondary is good, Ben Roethlisberger has the weapons around him to make plays. Hines Ward will likely be matched up with Champ Bailey or he will be double covered. This should leave plenty of room for Antwaan Randle El to do his thing. He can be a very dangerous player so look for him to have a heavy impact. Denver may have trouble containing both him and Hines Ward. Look for rookie Heath Miller to continue to be Roethlisberger’s favorite target in the red zone.
What it will ultimately come down to is who can contain the running game. These teams are ranked two and three in stopping the run this year, both giving up a hair over 85 yards per game. I believe that Pittsburgh will use all levels of its defense to contain Anderson and Bell and force Plummer into trying to make plays by himself. Look for Troy Polamalu to have a huge game, probably getting a pick and a good number of tackles including a sack. Pittsburgh will contain the run and use a good mix of Willie Parker, Jerome Bettis and Big Ben to get a lead on Denver and keep it. Jake Plummer will compile around 230 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT. The Bus will have 50 yards and 1 TD while Parker gets 85 yards rushing. Big Ben will go for 200 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT (Champ Bailey is too good not to be a factor). The final score: Pittsburgh 27, Denver 17.
The Panthers are back in the spotlight again. They’ve been here before, they’ve been underdogs before, but most importantly, they’ve gotten to the next level before. The Seahawks are coming off their first playoff win in quite a while and they are sure to be favored again in this match-up, especially if Shaun Alexander is back in the saddle. Seattle has been called soft in the past but they are a new team now. They have developed a solid defense and Shaun Alexander has had a record breaking, MVP season. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck proved that he can win without Alexander last week by taking care of the Redskins in Seattle. The major problem in this one for Seattle will be Steve Smith. The Carolina receiver has had an absolutely ridiculous year, earning himself co-ownership of the Comeback Player of the Year Award. He has blazing speed and cannot be covered one-on-one. He is also very dangerous on the reverse which Carolina has used very well in each of their playoff games. When Smith is not running wild they will have to be careful with Nick Goings. He managed a decent game last week, filling in for the injured DeShaun Foster who broke his fibula in the third quarter. Goings had to start for several games at the end of the season last year due to injuries to both DeShaun Foster and Stephen Davis. He was one of the best running backs in the league over the last half of the season. If Seattle can contain Smith, they could put themselves in position to go to Detroit.
The Panthers have a very good defense that has the ability to score by themselves against average offenses. Unfortunately, Seattle doesn’t have an average offense. Shaun Alexander will get good numbers, but Carolina needs to be able to not let him run away with the game. Look for Hasselbeck to use a lot of play-action if the ground attack becomes established early. Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram provide Hasselbeck with good targets along with Alexander himself. If Carolina can keep Shaun Alexander to somewhat human stats, Julius Peppers has the pass rushing ability to take over a game. Even with Seattle’s dominant line, Peppers in an amazing player who can get in there and disrupt any offense.
I am one of the few who believes that Carolina will pull of the major upset. Coach John Fox will come up with one of his Belicheck-like schemes to somewhat contain Alexander. He is also smart enough to realize that nobody can stop him altogether and that Alexander is not all the Panthers must focus on. Look for Julius Peppers to get a couple sacks and linebacker Dan Morgan to be all over the field getting to Alexander. Alexander will run for 100 yards and 2 TD. Hasselbeck will throw for 185 yards, 2 TD and 3 INT. One of these touchdowns will go to Darrell Jackson who will also get 90 yards recieving. Jake Delhomme should throw for 250 yards, 3 TD and maybe 1 INT. Steve Smith will record 15 catches for 200 yards and 2 TD. Smith will also get 45 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD on about 3 carries. Nick Goings will rush for 90 yards. John Kasay will make the game-winning kick as the clock expires in the fourth quarter. Final score: Carolina 34, Seattle 31. This will be a close one, but in the end, Carolina will be going back to the Super Bowl to play Pittsburgh in a match-up of two wild cards.