The Houston Astros have all but locked up the Wild Card in the National League with a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies with only 5 games left to be played in the season. The team’s dominant pitching, stellar defense, and won’t quit attitude are going to lead them straight to the World Series.In order to win in the playoffs five things are necessary (1) at least three top-tier starting pitchers; (2) a lineup that is able to manufacture runs; (3) solid defense; (4) a dominant closer; and (5) the X-factor.
By far the most important of these ingredients to success is the necessity of having high quality starting pitching. Without superior pitching a team has little to no chance to win consistently in the playoffs. No team with post season hopes has better starting pitching than the Houston Astros. How would you like to have to face Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, and Roy Oswalt (not to mention rising star Brandon Backe). These three starters all rank in top six for the lowest earned run average in the National League, with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettite ranking number one and two respectively. Together they have combined ERA of only 2.39, and the league is batting a paltry .239 against this formidable trio. We all know the cliché, “good pitching always beats good hitting.” This year will be no different from the past.
Perhaps the most overlooked component to winning in the playoffs is a lineup that can manufacture runs. It is difficult to win in the post season if a team is dependent on the big inning, more specifically, the long ball. Unlike the regular season teams do not have the fortune of facing a team’s fourth and fifth starters, who at times provide nothing more than glorified batting practice. Thus, it is important that a team can do the little things like, steal a base, stretching a single into a double, sacrificing the runner into scoring position, and providing a sacrifice fly with a runner on third, in order to win the tight games that dominate post season play. Wille Taveras, the Astros’ leadoff hitter and centerfielder, leads the league with 69 infield hits. The Astros rank 2nd in the National League in total stolen bases, with Wille Taveras once again leading the way with 34 bags swiped. Houston ranks in the top 5 in overall sacrifices, and only one team in contention, the Atlanta Braves, has more sacrifice flies than the Astros. All told this is a lineup built to come up with the difficult run when going against the opponent’s ace.
To support solid pitching a World Series contender must have a good defensive team. Houston sits atop the National League with a .986 fielding percentage, while having committed only 83 errors all season.
There is no more dominant closer in the game today then Brad Lidge! He ranks second in the NL with 40 saves and has the lowest ERA of any closer among the playoff teams. Lidge has the nastiest slider in the majors and can bring the heat in the upper nineties. When you combine this with his ability to pitch multiple innings on back-to-back days, it allows the Astros to be virtually automatic when they have a lead after 7 innings. An exceptional closer is a necessity of any serious playoff team because the post season generally comes down to close games in the late innings. If your team can shut their opponent down over the last two to three innings their chance of winning increase exponentially. Brad Lidge has ice water running through his veins and refuses to allow any runs to cross the plate, providing the Astros with the most feared pitcher in baseball.
The final element to a World Series team is an X-factor, a special quality that sets the team apart from the field. Last year the Red Sox had “the idiots,” breaking the curse, and fate on their side. The Astros have the Texas Bull, Roger Clemens, who is going to will his team to victory. His last wish is to honor is recently deceased mother with a final World Series championship. Roger has one last special post season left in his hall of fame right arm.
The numbers don’t lie, this year destiny sides with the Astros.
2 replies on “Why the Astros are Going to the World Series”
Some Good Stats But the Cardinals are going to be tough to beat.
yeah First of all, it aint over till its over so don’t assume the Astros have it wrapped up. BUT, in all probablility they will win the wild card and face Atlanta in the first round. That will be a tough series, and then in the NLCS should they win in the NLDS, they would have to play the best team in the majors, the St. Louis Cardinals. Though the Astros ARE a great team and DO have all the components necessary to win a title, the Cardinals are just too damn good so I can’t see Houston advancing to the World Series, let alone winning it.