Week 3 NFL Picks

Entering Week 3 of the NFL season, we are beginning to see some definitive trends. So many gurus talk about knowing a lot after Week 1, but often times the opening week is dominated by unbelievable surprises. I’m not saying that after two weeks anyone should be making Super Bowl reservations, but we certainly know a lot more this week than last. Such as…

Green Bay and Minnesota are, simply put, bad teams. Tampa Bay has a hell of a defense. So does Indianapolis. Ben Roethlisberger is unquestionably an NFL star. I hope no one buried Philadelphia following the Monday night loss to Atlanta. Or bought stock in San Francisco’s playoff hopes.

Without further ado, here are my Week 3 NFL picks.

BET THE HOUSE AWARD

Dallas (-7) over SAN FRANCISCO

There aren’t many no-brainers on the docket this week, so we’ll bank on the 49ers putting forth another lackluster effort. Besides, the Cowboys’ collapse in the final five minutes notwithstanding, Dallas did dominate much of Monday night’s game against Washington. Factor in a fired up bunch of Cowboys, an irate Bill Parcells, and what looks to be an extremely bad 49ers team, and I’d feel safe taking Dallas even giving up a TD.

TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK

Jacksonville (+2 ½) over NEW YORK JETS

To be honest, I’m not sure why the Jets are favored in this one. Let’s see…New York was blown out in Week 1 by Kansas City, only to bounce back and narrowly defeat a lightly regarded Miami team.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, soundly defeated an average Seattle team and then pushed the Colts, on the road, to the brink.

And now you’re telling me the Jets are favored? Jacksonville’s defense could have a field day against Chad Pennington, particularly if Curtis Martin is not 100%.

WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE THEY THINKING?

Kansas City (+3) over DENVER

The Chiefs have already dispatched two quality teams in the Jets and the Raiders. Denver received a gift from Drew Brees a week after getting hammered by Miami. The much-improved KC defense, coupled with a still-explosive offense, will at least be able to cover, if not win. It’s hard to fathom a 2-0 team being an underdog against a team that should be 0-2.

AVOID THIS GAME

ST. LOUIS (-6 ½) over Tennessee

It’s hard to imagine that just six short seasons ago, these two teams squared off in one of the most thrilling Super Bowls. Not much has happened since then…if you ignore Kurt Warner’s crash-landing back on Earth; Brenda Warner’s continuous ridiculous behavior that hastened Kurt’s exit from St. Louis; Eddie George’s rapid decline from Pro Bowler to sharing carries with Chris Brown to castoff in Dallas to out of football this year; Steve McNair’s nearly-as-rapid downfall from stud QB to old and injury-prone.

As if showcasing their now-unpredictable roles as meddling NFL teams, both the Titans and the Rams enter this contest 1-1. St. Louis narrowly lost to San Francisco before narrowly beating Arizona. Tennessee got ripped by Pittsburgh before looking pretty impressive against Baltimore.

What to make of this game then? It might be easy to pick Tennessee, especially with the points, based on St. Louis’ unimpressive play against two bad teams. Then again, those games were on the road, and the Rams remain dangerous at their home turf. Besides, who knows when McNair finally loses a limb (not that it would keep him from finishing the game, of course)? Too many question marks for both of these teams. Avoid the game.

THE BOUNCE-BACK TEAM

I considered choosing Minnesota as this week’s bounce-back team, but then I remembered the horrific nightmares I had of Daunte Culpepper turning the ball over 10 times in the first two weeks of the season. (Wait, that wasn’t a nightmare.)

So instead, we’ll go with:

SAN DIEGO (-6) over New York Giants

I agree with the odds-makers; there’s no way the Chargers begin the season 0-3. Equally as sure, the Giants don’t start the season 3-0. And if I’m wrong, may God have mercy on us all.

Never fear. Playing at home, on Sunday night, against a team that has to fly cross-country, the Chargers should win this one. Can you imagine the atmosphere for this game? Besides the must-win facing San Diego, besides the allure of a Sunday night primetime game, you have the whole Eli Manning-returns-to-the-team-be-blew-off factor. I’m sure San Diego fans won’t remind Eli of his decision any more than 200 times, beginning two hours before gametime when he first heads out on the field.

In a perfect world, Brees gets hurt in this game, Phillip Rivers comes on and leads the Chargers to victory. Either way, it will be fun to see Eli first weltering, and then crying, under the booing he’ll face.

THE LET DOWN TEAM

Cincinnati (-3) over CHICAGO

There’s a good chance this game will feature the let down team. The question is, which one? I’ll bank on the Bears. There’s no way they are as good as they looked against Detroit. Undoubtedly, that was a best-case scenario where the Mike Brown-led defense plays flawlessly, including the requisite Brown-spine-tingling INT return for a touchdown, they get a big special teams play, and Kyle Orton plays solidly.

We’ll find out a lot about these teams this week. If one looks superbly good, there’s a good chance that team is for real. If they play a hard-fought competitive game, perhaps Lovie Smith and Marvin Lewis have their teams headed in the right direction.

I just like Carson Palmer more than the rookie Orton. The balanced Bengal attack, with Rudi Johnson running and Chad Johnson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh catching, will challenge the tough Bears defense.

BEST BETS OF THE REST

PHILADELPHIA (-7 ½) over Oakland

Jim Plunkett and Ron Jaworski will have to sit this one out. A rematch of Super Bowl XV features a rejuvenated Eagles team battling a downtrodden bunch of Fighting Al Davises. Word to the wise: Traveling across the country to take on one of the best five teams in the NFL that’s coming off a super-human performance is NOT the way to end a losing skid. Especially when Randy Moss is prominently figured. Why is everyone so quick to point out the Vikings shortcomings without Moss? Has anyone else noticed the team Moss is CURRENTLY ON IS ALSO WINLESS?!?!?

Tampa Bay (-3 ½) over GREEN BAY

I obviously underestimated how bad Green Bay is. This team is painful to watch, even the ever-enjoyable Brett Favre. The only question now is how far will this team plummet? Six wins? Five wins? Worse than that?

Tampa Bay has been one of the major surprises so far this season. The defense, which looks like it has regained its Super Bowl form, should feast on the withering Pack (not-so-) Attack.

And it looks like Cadillac Williams is resoundingly answering the “Who’s the best rookie running back?” question. (With all due respect to second-stringers Cedric Benson and J.J. Arrington.)

MINNESOTA (-4) over New Orleans

Two of the more taxed teams in the NFL take the field Sunday. For the Vikings, I’m not sure things could be any worse. Their defense is terrible, their offense might be worse, their franchise QB has turned the ball over 10 times (in 24 possessions).

Not much more needs to be said concerning the Saints. Playing for an entire region, having to travel incessantly, coming off a tough Monday night loss, you just hope the team is able to keep its spirits up.

In the end, I’ll take Minnesota because a) its at home, b) according to every law of averages in existence, Culpepper HAS to start playing better, and c) the Saints are playing their third road game in as many weeks.

MORE GAMES TO AVOID

New England (+3) over PITTSBURGH

I really like the Pats in this one. However, playing on the road against the 1-2 punch of Roethlisberger and Parker is enough to scare me off.

MIAMI (+3 ½) over Carolina

Any time you have the Dolphins covering against the team you have winning the Super Bowl, it’s not a game you want to bet a lot of money on.

BUFFALO (-3) over Atlanta

I like the Bills in this one because against teams with strong defenses, particularly linebacker play (Takeo Spikes, anyone?), Michael Vick struggles. Not to mention “Michael Vick pulls up lame” is the most horrifying sentence you could possibly mutter in Georgia. And yes, we did hear that last week.

Willis McGahee gets back on track this week, even if J.P. Losman doesn’t. Which brings us to the next question: How can the Bills be taken seriously when Losman and Kelly Holcomb hold the playoff hopes on their respective right shoulders?

CLEVELAND (+14) over Indianapolis

Vegas sure is going to make people earn their money when betting on the Colts this season. Another week, another double-digit point spread. Based on last week’s inability to blow away the Jaguars, I wouldn’t bet too much on the Colts overcoming a 2-TD spread against the Browns. I do, however, like the Colts to win by 7-10 points.

WHAT THE HECK, I MIGHT AS WELL PICK THIS GAME ALSO

SEATTLE (-6) over Arizona

I actually gave consideration to placing this game in the “Best Bets of the Rest” group. Seattle still has a certain group of fans and analysts out there thinking the Seahawks can become a pretty good team. I wouldn’t go that far, but on any given day, the Seahawks do have the ability to play well. Especially when Arizona lines up opposite.

LAST WEEK AGAINST THE SPREAD: 7-8-1
LAST WEEK STRAIGHT UP: 9-7