I recently got into a friendly argument about whether any activity that does not involve a ball should be counted as a sport. Given Lance Armstrong’s condition, I have even fewer balls to use in my argument for the Tour de France. But: doping scandals, rock star girlfriends, the 24th highest-paid athlete in the world according to Forbes.com, drunken and rowdy fans yelling at the athletes – it sounds like a sport to me.
So, who should you be watching when the 2004 Tour de France starts on July 3? For those who don’t know the difference between chamois cream and shinola, I’ve included some sports movie references for your reading pleasure.Lance Armstrong (Roy Hobbs)
Is an impotent man really man enough to be Sheryl Crow’s man? Winning the world’s toughest bike race (some would say the world’s toughest sporting event) five times in a row after recovering from cancer must be worth something. Like The Natural, Armstrong’s story is too good to be true. Armstrong’s season includes an overall win at the Tour of Georgia and a stage win at the Tour du Languedoc (translation: Tour of Long Duck Dong), but he was soundly beaten in the overall and in a key time trial stage at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré. Weakness? Not. No one is as motivated for the Tour as Armstrong, and he was in all likelihood coasting a bit at the Dauphiné this year, after going too hard in the same race last year and sacrificing some strength in the Tour itself. Unless there’s a French Barbara Hershey on the roadside, Armstrong will win an unprecedented sixth Tour de France.
Jan Ullrich (Ebby Calvin ‘Nuke’ LaLoosh)
Credited with being more talented than Armstrong, Ullrich is also known for heavily indulging in the finer things in life, to the detriment of his fitness. He has missed races in the past due to a positive test for ecstasy, and another time was hampered at the Tour by an injury suffered when he crashed his Porsche. "I ain’t pissing nothing away. I got a Porsche already; a 911 with a quadraphonic Blaupunkt." Reportedly, there were two men and two women all in the tiny car, and all were in the front seat – I wonder why he lost control? Was that a Porsche or a Hummer? Although he won the Tour de France in 1997, he has also finished second five times. Ullrich seems to be in good shape this year, having recently won the Tour de Suisse, but lost a key teammate for the Tour when Alex Vinokourov crashed in the same race. He’s the perennial bridesmaid – this year will be no different.
Tyler Hamilton (Daniel LaRusso)
Hamilton is Daniel-san to Armstrong’s Mr. Miyagi – a former teammate who learned from the master himself. Last year’s Tour was Hamilton’s All Valley Karate Championship – he broke his collarbone in two places during the very first stage of the race, but kept riding, won a stage and amazingly ended up in fourth place overall. This year, he defended his Tour of Romandie title and has put together a surprisingly strong Phonak team to support him. Armstrong will probably have Hamilton practicing his wax-on / wax-off for one more year, but Hamilton is strong in the mountains and the time trials and is probably the best bet to take Armstrong’s place at the head of the podium, maybe this year, maybe next year.
Iban Mayo / Roberto Heras (Pedro Cerrano)
Mayo and Heras are the billy goat wildcards of the Tour – they are both better pure climbers than Armstrong, and will inevitably create havoc in the Pyrenees and Alps. Mayo should be the favorite for the Alpe d’Huez time trial, having won the recent time trial up Mont Ventoux in the Dauphiné Libéré and the stage up Alpe d’Huez in last year’s Tour. Heras was Armstrong’s main helper in the mountains during the past three Tours, and would occassionally have to slow down in order for Armstrong to stay on his wheel. Like the curveball to Cerrano, though, both Mayo and Heras have potential weaknesses. Neither rider’s team will be strong in the team time trial, and both could lose upwards of 2 1/2 minutes in that early stage. And, after the difficult stages in the Alps, both will be faced with a decisive individual time trial in the penultimate stage. It would not be a complete surprise to see one or both of these riders dictate the pace in the mountains and even potentially carry the lead into the final time trial, but neither has the strength to hold off Armstrong in the last "race of truth".
Alessandro Petacchi (Danny Noonan) & Mario Cipollini (Tony D’Annunzio)
In the separate world of the sprinters, everyone wants to see the battle between Petacchi and Cipollini. Given recent form, it won’t even be close. Petacchi should storm to 3-4 stage wins in the early flat part of the Tour, while Cipollini will be left crying about someone cutting him off. The ladies will always love Mario, though. In the end, don’t expect to see either rider in Paris at the conclusion of the three week race – both will probably abandon during the mountains, with the green points jersey going to either Robbie McEwen or Baden Cooke.
One final thought: Wouldn’t it be great if Armstrong’s US Postal Service team showed up for the start of a stage in all white cotton t-shirts with "Cutters" ironed on the front?