As Bruce Sutter and his 13-year wait for the Hall of Fame just proved, it’s hard to make it in to the Hall. You could even be the all-time saves leader (like Lee Smith is) and not make it to Cooperstown. While some active pitchers will be having their busts carved out in the near future, the vast majority need more work. Which pitchers will make it to the Hall? Here’s my analysis.  I’m going to divide the players most likely to make the Hall into five categories:

    1. Lock: These players, if they retired today, would still make it.

    2. On the way: These players just are established stars who will make the Hall if they keep it up.

    3. Rising Star: These players may have just entered the league, but they have shown flashes of greatness.

    4. Iffy: These players need a few more star years to be in consideration.

    5. Out: These players may be highly regarded by some, but they won’t make it.

Category 1: Lock:

Roger Clemens: He’s the easiest selection across the board. Clemens was (and still is) one of the most dominant pitchers in league history, and he has collected 7 Cy Youngs over an 18-year period. His 343 wins might not be equaled for decades.

Greg Maddux:  With Maddux pitching just average over the last few years, it’s almost hard to remember his incredible seasons of the past. He and Clemens are the only two active pitchers to have amassed 300 wins, with Maddux at 328. His 3.06 career ERA is second among the actives and includes seven consecutive seasons under 3. Bonus points are awarded for his 19-2, Cy Young winning 1995 season in which the Braves won the World Series.

Randy Johnson:  The Big Unit not only has the best nickname of all time, but he might be the best strikeout pitcher ever. His 4502 career punchouts are third all time, and he had four consecutive seasons of 300 or more from 1999-2002. He also won four Cy Youngs in those years, becoming the second player ever to do that.

Mariano Rivera:  Only 4 closers have ever gotten into the Hall, but Mo is the odds-on favorite to join them. He is fourth all-time in saves with over 400, in addition to an incredible 2.33 career ERA and 1.04 WHIP. And how about those postseason appearances? He was a part of four World Series titles, has made it to the playoffs every year he’s been a closer, and has a 0.81 ERA in those appearances. While it may be tough for closers to make it into the Hall, Rivera might be the best reliever ever.

Pedro Martinez:  If you don’t think of Pedro as a “HOF type of player,” think again. He is the most statistically dominant pitcher of our time. Martinez has the 3rd best winning percentage ever, the 3rd best WHIP ever, and the best active ERA with 2.75. He had what some consider the most dominant pitching run ever from 1997-2003, and won three Cy’s in those years.

Tom Glavine: 300 wins almost never fails in getting a pitcher into the Hall of Fame. Glavine, at 40 years old, is only 13 wins shy of the mark and should pass it next year. As another Brave from their historic run, Glavine won two Cy Youngs, went to nine All Star games, and even won four Silver Sluggers. He posted over 20 wins five different times, and pitched in 21 different postseason series. The 300 wins, when they come, will only be an exclamation point on a consistent, lengthy career.

John Smoltz:  Smoltzie will be a tough call for voters, but (though biased) I think he should get in. He is the second best starter/reliever ever behind Dennis Eckersley(who made it into the Hall in 2004). Smoltz was dominant as a closer, with 144 saves over three years, including a 55-save 2002 that ranks second all-time for a single season. Though his win total isn’t overly impressive at 186, he had multiple dominant starting seasons including a Cy Young in 1996. He is one of two players (Chipper Jones) to be with the Braves throughout their entire 14-year division title run. For that alone he deserves a Hall Call.

Trevor Hoffman: Judging by the track record of the voters, Hoffman might be the least likely to get in among these elite eight. But he absolutely should. Hoffman will retire the all-time saves leader, as he is only 12 behind Lee Smith right now. The knock on Trevor is his lack of postseason play; he’s been in only 5 series and has been inconsistent in those. But his regular season dominance is special. Excluding the 2003 season he missed due to injury, Hoffman has 11 straight 30-save seasons (including an NL-best 30 this year). He has five sub-1.0 WHIP seasons, and a preposterous 1.05 career mark. His 2.73 ERA isn’t bad either. Over his career he has set a standard for consistency at the position. Why leave him out?

Category 2: On the Way:

Johan Santana:  While Johan has only been dominant for four seasons, he appears to have that Hall of Fame quality. Only 27 years old, Johan has racked up 71 wins and over 1000 strikeouts. He burst onto the scene with a 20-win 2004 Cy Young campaign, and was robbed of another award last year. He is on pace to lead the AL in K’s for the third straight season, and if he avoids injury could challenge some of the all-time strikeout records. The Twins have their ace for a long time–if they can keep him.

Roy Halladay: This year is Halladay’s fifth of being a starting pitcher, and he’s just barely shown how great he can be. His 22-7, 9 complete game season in 2003 earned him a Cy Young, and he was on pace for one last year until he was knocked out with an injury. But taking into account his age (29) and potential, Halladay could easily rack up 250-300 wins by the time he hangs up his cleats.

Billy Wagner:  His placement here might baffle some, though honestly it shouldn’t. Wagner has become a truly dominant, consistent closing powerhouse. Wagner broke onto the scene in 1999 with a 1.57 ERA and 39 saves, and hasn’t looked back since. Though injuries limited him in 2000 and 2004, he has posted six straight sub-3 ERA years and four straight sub-1 WHIP campaigns. The four-time All Star isn’t done yet; he’s 35 and appears to have plenty of quality years left. With 307 career saves, he actually has a chance at the all-time record.

Roy Oswalt:  Oswalt is almost 29 and has been a stud for years. He has posted a winning record in each of his major league seasons and has an outstanding 3.09 career ERA. Though his strikeout ability appears to be diminishing, Oswalt is as consistent as it gets. There’s nothing holding him back from 7-10 more excellent seasons.

Category 3: Rising Star:

Brandon Webb: B-Webb has burst onto the scene this year with league-leading innings pitched, ERA, and win totals. He had been just a decent pitcher in each of his three previous years, but now he is looking dominant. The only problem for him is his underwhelming 43-41 career record. This is due to a 2004 season in which he was burdened with a 7-16 record despite a 3.59 ERA. But he has plenty of time to get that record up.

Dontrelle Willis: The D-Train is tough to figure out. He had an outstanding rookie year followed by an indifferent sophomore season. Then last year he went 22-10 and nearly won the Cy Young. This year he’s back to average, but he still has plenty of time to figure out his problems. Willis is only 24 and already has 53 wins.

Scott Kazmir:  He has apparently gotten over the control problems from his 100-walk 2005 and has shown flashes of superstardom this year. The best thing for this strikeout stud would be a trade from the Devil Rays. He has a 22-19 career record despite a 3.80 ERA due to poor run support.

Huston Street:  In his two years as a pro, Street has been an ace. He had 23 saves and won AL Rookie of the Year in 2005; this year he has improved his control and strikeout ability but has a higher ERA. Whatever. This guy will be an amazing player for years if he avoids injury.

Carlos Zambrano:  I was shocked to learn that Zambrano is only 25. He’s been a great strikeout pitcher with low ERAs each of the past four seasons. If he doesn’t burn out he’ll be an All Star for years to come.  

Rookie Pitchers:  It’s hard to base Hall of Fame credentials on just four months of play, but some rookies have stood out this season. Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander are 1-2 in AL ERA, while Jonathan Papelbon is tied for the saves lead. Josh Johnson and Jered Weaver got late starts but will be interesting to watch as well.

Category 4: Iffy:

Curt Schilling:  The argument for Schilling is an interesting one. Though he was an average player for his first 13 seasons, he has been outstanding ever since. His four years in Arizona included a World Series co-MVP and two 20-win years. Then in 2004 he went 21-6 to lead the Red Sox to their now-legendary title. His recent play has given him some impressive career numbers, including 205 wins and a 3.42 ERA. But will it be enough? Honestly, probably not.

Chris Carpenter: Carpenter is a classic case of how a change of scenery can help a player. He was run of the mill during six seasons with the Blue Jays, but in three seasons with the Cardinals has a 46-15 record and a Cy Young. He’ll obviously need more great seasons to even be in consideration for the Hall.

Jason Schmidt:  He did nothing in his years with the Braves and Pirates, but ever since joining the Giants has been a star. He peaked in 2003 with a 2.34 ERA and had success in 2004 as well. Last year he nothing, but this season appears to be very good once again. But at 33 years old, time might be running out to put up great numbers.

Barry Zito: Ever since winning the Cy with a fantastic season in 2002, Zito hasn’t been able to return to form. He has battled with .500 each season; some of that due to poor run support and the rest due to high walk totals. This 28-year-old will have to figure out his control problems if he ever wants to return to form.

Tim Hudson:  Tim put up some great years in Oakland, had an OK debut year with the Braves, but has magnificently tanked this year. If he can bring back his old self, Hudson will put up monstrous numbers by the end of his career. Believe it or not he is 6th all time in winning percentage.

Mark Buehrle:  He is young (27) and has had a pretty good career so far. But he is still looking for a breakout season. Until he can put up a Cy Young-worthy campaign, Buehrle will have to realize that being good sometimes isn’t good enough.

Category 5: Out:

Andy Pettitte: You could build up a case for Pettitte being a Hall of Famer. He was a part of four World Series titles. He has 185 wins and counting. Every year Pettitte has been with the Yankees, they have won the division title. Still, the problem with Pettitte to me is that he didn’t perform well during the Yankees’ three-peat. In each of those seasons he posted an ERA no less than 4.24. In his postseason career, he has been average: 14-9 with a 4.08 ERA. In the end, the career numbers for this 34-year-old won’t be good enough. Pettitte won’t make it.

Mike Mussina:  Moose will be a another tough decision for Hall voters when he comes up. He has 237 career wins and at 37 still has two or three years left in him. 300 is a long shot, though he has other credentials as well. He has won 6 career Gold Gloves, has been a five-time All Star, and has finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting five times. But he has multiple problems. First, he has never won a World Series, though he has been to two and pitched well in them. Also, he has a lack of dominant years. Since his first two years in the league, Mussina has never had a sub-3 ERA and has never won 20 games period. So while he’s been an above-average pitcher for years, he shouldn’t be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Kenny Rogers:  His credentials are impressive: four Gold Gloves, four All Star games, a perfect game, and 200 wins. But, like with Mussina, Rogers has never qualified as a dominant pitcher. No 20 win or sub-3 ERA seasons, an 8.85 postseason ERA, and just too inconsistent. He will be remembered for his cameraman-hitting incident more than his play.

David Wells:  Boomer has 227 wins and won 2 World Series. That’s about it. His career ERA is too high at 4.08. He never won a significant award. His best statistic is least walks allowed. Why should he be in the Hall?

Sources: baseball-reference.com and espn.com