Think fast: Who do you think is the favorite to be this year’s Super bowl champion? Unless you’re a fan of one of the four remaining teams, it’s highly unlikely that you were able to answer this question in less than 10 seconds. I myself have been mulling over this question for the last 2 days, and the more I think, the more confused I get. I’ll be lucky just to pick the winner of one of this Sunday’s conference championship games, let alone pick the team who is going to win Superbowl XL. The Indianapolis Colts were my, as well as almost everyone else’s, favorite to win it all, and with the Patriots losing to the Broncos, it appeared as if they would have little difficulty winning the AFC Championship. But, as everyone is well aware, that all changed on Sunday afternoon with the Steelers pulling off the upset in one of the best and wildest playoff games in years. The ramifications of this game’s surprising outcome were also felt in Denver, as Broncos fans realized that instead of having to face the Colts in the RCA dome, they would be playing at home against the Steelers. With one swift Mike Vanderjagt shank, the Broncos suddenly became not only the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but also (at least according to Vegas) the slight favorite to be this year’s Super Bowl Champion.
While it is certainly tough to bet against a team that just knocked off the two-time defending Super Bowl champions and is 9-0 at home, I am still not quite ready to jump on the Broncos bandwagon. I’m not sure if I’m willing to put my money on Jake Plummer, and it’s not just because I would never bet on someone who would decide to sport what looks less like a beard and more like a dead animal on his face. While beating the Pats was impressive, the task was made much easier because of the Pats’ inability to hold onto the ball. Plummer can’t be faulted for taking advantage of the opportunities that he was given, but the jury is still out on how well he will perform if he is forced to throw the ball in order for the Broncos to win. This is especially relevant if the Broncos struggle to run the ball effectively, as was the case against the Patriots.
Like the Patriots, the Steelers’ defense is one of the league’s best against the run, and this could force the Broncos to have to throw the ball more than they would want to. The Broncos know that if they are to establish the run, they will take a lot of pressure off Plummer, which will in turn give them a much greater chance of winning. If he can avoid making any big mistakes, then Denver will likely emerge victorious, as they are 11-1 this season in games in which Plummer did not throw an interception. If the Broncos are unable to run the ball effectively, Denver could be in for a long day.
While all of this talk might lead you to believe that I will be putting my money on the Steelers, I don’t think I’m quite ready to do that either. We all know how difficult it is to beat the Steelers once they get a second half lead, but we don’t know how capable they are of making a 4th quarter comeback. The Steelers like to get an early lead on teams by throwing the ball in the first half, and Roethlisberger is usually not asked to do much in the second half, other than hand the ball of to Jerome Bettis as the Steelers milk the clock. As impressive as Roethlisberger has been, he is still in just his second year, and it remains to be seen how he will respond if the Steelers are down by 10 with less than 15 minutes to play, and he is asked to carry his team to victory.
Just as there is not much separating the two remaining AFC teams, I am having an equally difficult time picking the winner in Sunday’s NFC Championship game. The Panthers have a lot of momentum coming off two excellent road victories. What really makes them dangerous is the fact that they are versatile enough to win both a defensive struggle and a shootout. They are the road underdog for a third consecutive week, and you get the feeling that they really relish that role.
In Steve Smith, they have a player who is a legitimate threat to score every time he has the ball either handed off or thrown to him. Watching him dominate the game the way he did, even with Chicago knowing that the ball was coming his way, reminded me a little bit of the way Michael Jordan used to dominate games for the Bulls in the mid and late 80’s. Just as was the case with MJ, the Bears knew that Smith was Carolina’s only big play threat, but they were still unable to stop him. The Seahawks will not be able to stop Smith, their only hope is to slow him down a bit, and force someone else on the Panthers to beat them. I am not sure who that player will be. Just as Jordan needed help from his teammates in order to win it all, Smith is going to need help if the Panthers hope to win two more games.
With DeShaun Foster out, Carolina will have to hope that Nick Goings will be able to run the ball well against a pretty stout Seahawks run defense. While the casual football fan may know next to nothing about Goings, Fantasy Football players who picked him up during the second half of the 2004 season will certainly remember that he is a capable back. Although he is not the big-play threat that Foster is, he is a solid back who should be able to get some yards. If the Seahawks are able to shut him down early, however, the Panthers may become too one-dimensional, and Jake Delhomme may throw a costly interception or two while throwing yet another pass in the direction of Steve Smith.
Just as I have my reservations about the Carolina Panthers, I also do not have a great deal of confidence in their opponent, the Seattle Seahawks. While they were able to get by without the services of league MVP Shaun Alexander last weekend against the Redskins, they will almost certainly need him to have a big game against the Panthers, in order to take some pressure off of Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck performed well last week, but is not as experienced a playoff quarterback as his counterpart, Jake Delhomme, and he could struggle without the help of a solid running game. The Seahawks claim that Alexander is healthy, but we really won’t know that until he takes his first big hit on Sunday. The fans at Qwest field have given Seattle a huge home field advantage this year, but the Panthers seem to have absolutely no qualms with playing on the road.
As you can see, I still don’t have an answer to the question I posed. Unlike in past years, there really isn’t much separating these four teams, and while this fact makes the games all the more difficult to handicap, it will also make the games that much more fun to watch.