The 2006 Red Sox – Let’s be Realistic

The Red Sox are not making the playoffs this year. Anyone who’s watched them over the last month knows that this is a .500 team against the American League. I know I’m going to get blasted by people, because any time I proclaim that my favorite team will not make the playoffs on message boards and websites like this, waves of “optimists” shower me with criticism.

If you haven’t lost hope in the Red Sox, you are not watching all of their games. Either that or you’re clouded by your commitment to the team. Don’t be a cheerleader. Deflate your hopes, like a responsible sports fan should.

The overly-optimistic will no doubt have their counter-arguments ready to go. I’ve already prepared my responses to them.

Optimist – “How can you give up on the Red Sox already? It’s only the beginning of August! You must not be a true Red Sox fan.”

I know they’re done because a serious contender doesn’t drop two of three games to the depleted Tampa Bay Devil Rays, in August. Contenders, like the Yankees, beat bad teams when they need to. While the Red Sox were busy coughing up late-inning home runs to all-stars like Ben Zobrist, Travis Lee and Greg Norton, the Yankees took two out of three over the hapless Orioles to strengthen their grasp on the A.L. East lead.

It’s not just the Tampa series that sickens me about this team. The Red Sox are 15-16 since feasting on a weak National League East back in June. They’re 4-6 in the last ten games, and David Ortiz is responsible for…all four of those wins! Three were Ortiz walk-offs at Fenway, and Friday’s 3-2 win in Tampa featured two Big Papi home runs. Were David Ortiz as clutch as, say, Alex Rodriguez, they could very well be on a 10-game losing streak right now. Don’t let their position in the standings fool you: the Red Sox are hanging on by a thread, and that thread’s name is Big Papi.

And guess what? It’s never too early to say your team won’t make it. Don’t be the kind of fan who boldy claims that “the Brewers can really do it this year!” Be realistic.

Optimist – “The Red Sox are 65-45. That’s 20 games over .500. They’re only two games behind the Yankees and ½ game behind Chicago in the Wild Card. You’re so pessimistic!”

I’m just being realistic. What makes anyone think that they can keep up with the Yankees, Twins and White Sox? (And yes, I know my last column was about how the A.L. East could produce two wild card teams. I was wrong, OK?)

If you take away their record in interleague play, the Red Sox are just six games over .500 on the season. They’re not going to suddenly catch fire because, in the last month, they’ve been ravaged by injuries. Tim Wakefield could be done for the season, and Matt Clement is a ghost. Who’s replaced them? David Wells and Jason Johnson, and that’s scary. Wells is dead weight on the mound with an woeful 8.05 ERA, even when he manages to stay healthy. Johnson lowered his ERA to a healthy 5.96 with his recent start in Tampa.  

Captain Jason Varitek hurt his knee, and we’ll be lucky to see him before mid-September. Trot Nixon is on the shelf, too. They couldn’t afford to lose both Nixon and Varitek. While their numbers were down, Nixon and Varitek are true Red Sox who wear the uniform with pride. They bring intangibles to the game that can’t be measured by statistics. The pitching staff will suffer without Varitek. So will team morale. And don’t tell me Javy Lopez is the answer. He’s 36 and he has nothing left. The Orioles knew that and were happy to unload him for a bag of Doritos.

Optimist – “In 2004, the Red Sox played mediocre baseball for two months before turning it on down the stretch. How can you forget so soon?”

That was different. Pitching carried that team through August and September. The starting rotation in 2004 included: Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Bronson Arroyo and Derek Lowe. Each one of those guys was capable of pitching deep into games and holding teams below five runs while doing so.

Here’s the rotation as of August 7, 2006: Curt Schilling, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, David Wells, Jason Johnson. How does that sound? Out of that group, I’d say one is reliable down the stretch, and that’s Curt Schilling. He’s awesome.

Otherwise, they’re relying on Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Lester has looked good so far but is still a rookie. The problem with rookie pitchers (unless they’re Francisco Liriano) in August and September is that, unless they have 10-strikeouts-a-game stuff, teams around the league adjust to them. Lester can overcome that, but the odds are against him pitching as well as he has so far.

And no, Beckett is not an ace. Not even close. His 13 wins are deceiving, and he alone proves that wins are an over-rated stat. His 5.00 ERA and league-leading 31 home runs allowed should tell you that. Beckett still hasn’t learned that you can’t just throw a 97-MPH fastball every single pitch.

As for Wells and Johnson, I already talked about how bad they are. The starting rotation is in shambles. Please, go away with the 2004 comparisons. That team was much, much better than this one.  

Optimist – “Jonathan Papelbon is having a historic season. He’ll surely help carry this team to the playoffs.”

Wrong. While Papelbon is an absolutely beast, he can’t do it alone.

Nobody else in that bullpen is reliable. Mike Timlin is 40 and blows leads like he’s Alan Embree. So, what about those young guys that Theo Epstien held onto at the trading deadline? How about Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen?

I can’t believe they’re actually going to rely on these guys down the stretch. Craig Hansen is 22 YEARS OLD!! He just graduated college, and he pitched in the Big East, which is a dreadful baseball conference. Aside from that, he has very little minor league experience. No wonder he’s struggling in the majors, having allowed 17 runs in 24 innings pitched.

Delcarmen isn’t the same since he injured his thumb. He’s partly responsible for the latest bullpen meltdown against Tampa Bay Sunday, where he entered the game with a 6-2 lead in the seventh inning and departed when it was 6-4. He hasn’t proven himself in the majors for an extended period of time.

I don’t have to mention how atrocious Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez have been this year.

Epstien failed to go out and get any bullpen help at the deadline. I don’t think Solomon Torres or Mike Gonzalez would’ve cost him the farm system. What a joke.

So there you have it, optimists. Never mind the fact that David Ortiz is having a legendary season, and that Manny is doing his usual thing at the plate. It’s all going to be wasted because the rest of the team is average.

I would love to be wrong. I would love for David Wells to become a 4.00 ERA pitcher again, and for Timlin to dominate and the young pitchers to exceed expectations. I would love for Jason Johnson to build on his previous start and become competent. Nothing would please me more than to see Josh Beckett fulfill his potential, starting now. But those are too many “ifs” for me to realistically believe this team has a shot right now.