It’s a big week for new quarterbacks. John Beck gets the nod in Washington and Christian Ponder replaces McNabb is Minnesota. But most importantly, Tim “The Savior/ Media Darling” Tebow gets his first start in Miami. Of the three, Beck finds himself in the worst situation. No one expects the Vikings to even come within a touchdown of the Packers and Tebow will have plenty of “hometown” support in Miami and goes up against the worst team in the league. We’ll see how it all shakes out.
The featured games this week are Chargers @ Jets, Texans @ Titans, Falcons @ Lions, and Packers @ Vikings.
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NFL Week 7 2011 Picks
|Chargers @ Jets||Chargers||Chargers||Chargers||Jets|
|Bears @ Bucs||Bucs||Bucs||Bucs||Bears|
|Broncos @ Dolphins||Dolphins||Broncos||Broncos||Dolphins|
| Seahawks @ Browns
|Redskins @ Panthers||Panthers||Panthers||Panthers||Panthers|
|Texans @ Titans||Texans||Titans||Texans||Texans|
|Falcons @ Lions||Lions||Lions||Falcons||Falcons|
|Steelers @ Cards||Steelers||Steelers||Steelers||Steelers|
|Chiefs @ Raiders||Raiders||Raiders||Chiefs||Chiefs|
|Rams @ Cowboys||Cowboys||Cowboys||Cowboys||Cowboys|
|Packers @ Vikings||Packers||Packers||Packers||Packers|
|Colts @ Saints||Saints||Saints||Saints||Saints|
|Ravens @ Jaguars||Ravens||Ravens||Ravens||Ravens|
Against the Spread
NFL Week 7 2011 Picks
|Chargers @ Jets (+1)||Chargers||Chargers||Chargers||Jets|
|Bears @ Bucs (0)||Bucs||Bucs||Bucs||Bears|
|Broncos @ Dolphins (0)||Dolphins||Broncos||Broncos||Dolphins|
| Seahawks @ Browns (-2.5)
|Redskins @ Panthers (-2)||Panthers||Panthers||Panthers||Panthers|
|Texans @ Titans (-3)||Texans||Titans||Texans||Texans|
|Falcons @ Lions (-3.5)||Lions||Falcons||Texans||Falcons|
|Steelers @ Cards (+4)||Cards||Steelers||Cards||Steelers|
|Chiefs @ Raiders (-4)||Raiders||Raiders||Chiefs||Chiefs|
|Rams @ Cowboys (-12)||Cowboys||Rams||Rams||Cowboys|
|Packers @ Vikings (+8)||Packers||Packers||Packers||Packers|
|Colts @ Saints (-14)||Colts||Colts||Saints||Colts|
|Ravens @ Jaguars (+7.5)||Ravens||Ravens||Ravens||Jaguars|
Locks of the Week
Vegas Vinny: (2-4, Balance=$720) Sometimes you just gotta ride the hot hand and not outthink yourself. Some things in life are pretty much set in stone: Dark Side of the Moon will always be good, Ryan will always miss one football Sunday a year to go apple picking, strippers will always have daddy issues, and Vegas will always miss on one team a year. This year, it appears that team is the Baltimore Ravens.
The problem with the Ravens is that nobody gives their offense any credit despite having one of the best running backs in the league. So despite being 5th in ppg scored (29.6) and 1st in points allowed (14.2), Vegas only makes them a 7.5 point favorite against the Jaguars who can’t score at all. I know I said $110 on the podcast but I need to get back into this thing. I’m putting $330 to win $300 on the Ravens (-7.5) this Sunday and if they win, I’ll ride em again next week.
BostonMac: (3-3, Balance=$1040) The Jets got a much-needed shot in the arm last week when they got to play the pathetic Miami Dolphins at home last week. And the truth is, they didn’t even look that impressive in demolishing them on the scoreboard — that was all about the Dolphins’ incompetence. The Jets can’t run and they can’t pass, and they have lost the edge that Rex Ryan lives for. Some might argue that they got it back last week, but let’s be serious, Matt Moore Philip Rivers is not. San Diego came to New England in Week 2 and put up a ton of yards on the Patriots, so the cross-country trip won’t be as big of a factor as you might think. With the spread at only one, I’ll go with the road team coming off the bye. $55 to win $50 on SAN DIEGO (-1).
RJ: (1-4, Balance =$935) True story: I forgot to submit a lock for last weeks picks, but I had the GIANTS (-3) over the Bills and they pushed. I’m sticking to that.
Now on to this week. I thought I read that Al Davis died, but apparently he still lives on in the form of a terrible trade that will set the franchise back for another few years. Getting Palmer is not a bad move, but at the expense of first round draft picks? The day Mike Brown fleeces you in a trade is the day your franchise should lose it’s charter.
But seriously. The Chiefs have been playing a little better ball and coming off their bye should be well prepared to slow down he Raiders running game which will be relied on more heavily until Palmer gets his football legs back. Also, this is a huge game for them to keep pace in the West. The Raiders and Chiefs are pretty even in talent, and I have a feeling the emotion of Al Davis’ passing will wear off and the Raiders will struggle against a Chiefs (+3.5) team that’s been waiting for them.
Burton: (3-3, Balance =$1510) Anyone who calls me a homer (or, since I’ve never lived in Atlanta, a whatever the correct term is) clearly has no idea how I operate. I went all-in against Atlanta but two weeks ago. And while I still think my team sucks, and while I still think Atlanta will be lucky to win more than 6 games this year, I’m locking Atlanta to pull the upset of the season.
Detroit has still not shown that it can shut down a top wide receiver, and even though Roddy White hasn’t been his usual self this season, he still could be too much for the Lions to handle. Moreover, the Lions haven’t had to deal with this type of pressure before, and how they rebound from a big loss will decide everything.
The last time Detroit lost a meaningful game, the Lions followed that loss with 5 more, collapsing from a 6-2 start in 2007 to a 7-9 finish. The previous big loss came in 2000, when Paul Edinger’s field goal in week 17 prevented Detroit from completing a topsy-turvy year with a playoff bid. The Lions lost their first 12 the following season. This is in and of itself a big game for the Lions, a chance to right the ship and prove the 13-game winning streak that just ended was really a new beginning.
But history is eerie sometimes. That 2007 loss I referenced? It came against an up-and-coming Arizona team from the NFC West. The following week the Lions lost a tight contest against a New York Giants outfit that entered needing a win. Last week, Detroit lost to an up-and-coming San Francisco team from the NFC West. This week, they’re entering a tight contest against an Atlanta Falcons outfit that needs a win.
Turmoil is a tricky foe, and the Giants took it as the catalyst for an unlikely rise to Super Bowl greatness. Be damned with the undefeated Patriots! Could Atlanta damn the unbeaten Packers and use a win over Detroit as a turning point toward something grand as well?
Only time will tell, but I’m backing my boys to give me one final modicum of hope. At +3.5, it’s worth $110 to win $100. I might be crazy, but I yet again believe this could possibly be our year.