It’s the start of the bye weeks which means less good games to go around. If you think the choice of featured games this week are a stretch, it’s because they are. But hey, at least you don’t have to watch Indy on prime time this week so that counts for something.
The featured games this week are Eagles @ Bills, Raiders @ Texans, Jets @ New England, and Packers @ Falcons.
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NFL Week 5 2011 Picks
Straight Up
| MATCHUP | Vegas Vinny | BostonMac | RJ | Burton | Actual |
| Chiefs @ Colts | Chiefs | Colts | Chiefs | Chiefs | |
| Seahawks @ Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | |
| Titans @ Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Titans | Titans | |
| Bengals @ Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Bengals | |
| Cards @ Vikings | Cards | Vikings | Vikings | Cards | |
| Eagles @ Bills | Eagles | Eagles | Bills | Eagles | |
| Saints @ Panthers | Saints | Saints | Saints | Saints | |
| Raiders @ Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | |
| Bucs @ Niners | Niners | Niners | Niners | Bucs | |
| Jets @ Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Jets | |
| Chargers @ Broncos | Chargers | Chargers | Broncos | Chargers | |
| Packers @ Falcons | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | |
| Bears @ Lions | Lions | Bears | Bears | Lions | |
| Prev Week | 13-3 | 14-2 | 11-5 | 9-7 | |
| Overall | 45-19 | 43-21 | 38-26 | 35-27 |
Against the Spread
| MATCHUP | Vegas Vinny | BostonMac | RJ | Burton | Actual |
| Chiefs @ Colts (-1) | Chiefs | Colts | Chiefs | Chiefs | |
| Seahawks @ Giants (-9) | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | |
| Titans @ Steelers (-5) | Titans | Steelers | Titans | Titans | |
| Bengals @ Jaguars (-2.5) | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Bengals | |
| Cards @ Vikings (-2.5) | Cards | Vikings | Vikings | Cards | |
| Eagles @ Bills (+1.5) | Eagles | Eagles | Bills | Eagles | |
| Saints @ Panthers (+6) | Saints | Saints | Saints | Saints | |
| Raiders @ Texans (-6) | Raiders | Texans | Raiders | Texans | |
| Bucs @ Niners (-1) | Niners | Niners | Niners | Bucs | |
| Jets @ Patriots (-9.5) | Jets | Jets | Jets | Jets | |
| Chargers @ Broncos (+4) | Chargers | Chargers | Broncos | Broncos | |
| Packers @ Falcons (+5.5) | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | |
| Bears @ Lions (-6) | Bears | Bears | Bears | Bears | |
| Prev Week | 13-3 | 12-4 | 8-8 | 6-10 | |
| Overall | 36-27-1 | 37-26-1 | 33-30-1 | 31-32-1 |
Locks of the Week
Vegas Vinny: (2-2, Balance=$985) Nothing really jumps out at me this week so I’ll go with a semi-safe pick. The Giants have beaten the Seahawks by a combined 72 points in their last two meetings. 41-7 last year in Seattle and 44-6 in 2008 in New York. There are three things at play here: Seahawks have to do the West Coast to East Coast thing, which has not fared well for west coast teams, Giants own them, and Seattle stinks. Most importantly, Seattle stinks. The 9.5 points are a lot for a banged up Giants team but away from home, the Seahawks might be in the bottom 3 of the league. The only way the Giants don’t have a blowout is if Eli decides to be Eli and throws 2-3 picks. $55 on Giants (-9) to win $50.
BostonMac: (2-2, Balance=$1140) Detroit pulled out another great W last week. Unfortunately, the Lions can’t play Tony Romo in a close game every week. At 4-0, they’ve been impressive, but I think they’re due for a clunker. If we can get the good Jay Cutler on a Monday night, the Lions will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. The 6 point spread is a little too high, and I think Vegas is overvaluing Detroit right now. I’ll put $110 to win $100 on CHI (+6).
RJ: (1-3, Balance =$935) $55 to win $50 on Tenn (+5)The title of this write-up will either be Steelers Hater Hates Steelers or Realist Thinks Titans Are Better Than Steelers (Right NOW). I’ll let you decide. The Titans have been a surprise team so far, having won three in a row against teams all coming off victories. The Steelers, though, are coming off one of their most embarrassing losses in recent memory. They were completely dominated in all phases of the game by a hungrier Texans team. It’s not as if a couple of tipped interceptions or some bad penalties have contributed to Pittsburgh’s troubles. They have been pushed around continuously at the line of scrimmage, and Tennessee has solid fronts on both sides of the ball. Matt Hasselbeck is enjoying a solid year and he keeps finding new targets, while Chris Johnson looks to build on his 100-yard performance against a defense suddenly vulnerable to the running game. The point spread in this one is more on the reputation of the Big Bad Steelers at home playing a team that nobody believes is for real after two below average seasons and starting a not-as-washed-up-as-everyone-wants-him-to-be QB. The TITANS (+5), should win, but will definitely keep it close against a team it might soon be trading places with in the AFC pecking order.
Burton: (2-2, Balance =$820)Every season there is that one line that just could not be big enough, that one game between two teams heading in diverging directions where even the team on the rise has a little to prove, a little to give to show whatever happened last time out wasn’t a fluke. Meanwhile, the team on the fall hasn’t recovered, hasn’t yet figured out how to move on, stuck in the past instead of improving toward the future. This is that game. Atlanta seems stuck on last season, forever morphed into the team that was ripped a new one by the Packers on that day in January, lacking the resolve that made them the NFC’s best team for 17 weeks.
Week 1 against Chicago, Atlanta looked complacent to lose; Week 3 against Tampa Bay the Falcons just looked shell-shocked. By Week 4, by the time Atlanta survived a missed field goal attempt with seconds left, there was as much time on the clock as there was gall in the spines of the team. They didn’t seem to care that they had won. If anything, they looked surprised. Surprised to beat Seattle. Surprised to hang on despite being outplayed by one of the most pathetic associations of 53 men ever to call itself an NFL roster.
Atlanta has no offense line, one of the worst starting cornerbacks ever to plague an NFL roster (DeAngelo Hall was worse), and a coaching staff that is teetering on the verge of losing the team, if it hasn’t already. The only thing that the Falcons are waiting for is that game that will push all the problems to the forefront. Atlanta will fall into an historic defeat Sunday night, the kind that you’d tell your children about if, A. you ever had children, and B. you told your children about famously one-sided games. The beat-down Atlanta is about to receive will make the 2011 NFC Division Game look like a nail-biter. I know it’s early, but there’s not a doubt in my mind. I’m going all in: every last cent of that $820 I call a bankroll will be put on Green Bay (-5.5). I’d wager just as much at (-15.5). Green Bay will win by 30 at the very least.
It’s time Atlanta started over. The Falcons will have no other choice after Sunday night.