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December 23, 2010

2010 NFL Week 16 Picks and Podcast

Two weeks to either get into the playoffs or go plan those tee times. It’s not the division winners that are important (especially not the NFC West winner), it’s the wild card teams and which one can go into the postseason smoking hot. We blaze through the lesser games and focus on the ones that affect the playoff race.

The featured games this week are Jets at Bears, Niners at Rams, Giants at Packers, and Saints at Falcons.

You can download the podcast directly (running time 90 mins) or subscribe to the feed.

If you use iTunes, just click here and then click subscribe and iTunes will take care of the rest.

NFL Week 16 2010 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Panthers at Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Cowboys @ Cards Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Redskins @ Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Redskins
Jets @ Bears Jets Jets Bears Jets
Lions @ Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Niners @ Rams Niners Niners Rams Rams
Titans @ Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Titans Titans
Ravens @ Browns
Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Patriots @ Bills Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Texans @ Broncos Texans Broncos Broncos Broncos
Colts @ Raiders Colts Colts Colts Raiders
Chargers @ Bengals Chargers Chargers Chargers Bengals
Giants @ Packers Packers Packers Giants Packers
Seahawks @ Bucs Bucs Bucs Bucs Bucs
Vikings @ Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Vikings
Saints @ Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Saints
Prev Week 10-6 (.625) 7-9 (.438) 8-8 (.500) 10-6 (.625)
Overall 139-85 (.621) 130-94 (.580) 135-89 (.603) 124-98 (.559)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Panthers at Steelers (-9) Steelers Steelers Steelers Panthers
Cowboys @ Cards (+6.5) Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Redskins @ Jaguars (-7) Jaguars Jaguars Redskins Redskins
Jets @ Bears (-1) Jets Jets Bears Jets
Lions @ Dolphins (-3.5) Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Niners @ Rams (-2.5) Niners Niners Rams Rams
Titans @ Chiefs (-5) Chiefs Chiefs Titans Titans
Ravens @ Browns (+3.5) Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Patriots @ Bills (+8) Bills Bills Patriots Bills
Texans @ Broncos (+2.5) Texans Broncos Broncos Broncos
Colts @ Raiders (+3.5) Colts Colts Colts Raiders
Chargers @ Bengals (+7.5) Bengals Chargers Chargers Bengals
Giants @ Packers (-3) Packers Packers Giants Giants
Seahawks @ Bucs (-6.5) Seahawks Bucs Seahawks Bucs
Vikings @ Eagles (-14.5) Vikings Vikings Eagles Vikings
Saints @ Falcons (-2.5) Falcons Falcons Falcons Saints
Prev Week 8-8 (.500) 6-10 (.375) 9-7 (.563) 7-9 (.438)
Overall 103-113-7 (.477) 109-107-7 (.505) 109-107-7 (.505) 90-126-7 (.417)

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (6-9, Balance =$840). You know who gets no love? The Baltimore Ravens. Without anything flashy, they get lost admist the great AFC teams like the Patriots and Steelers, and the self hyped Jets. Baltimore is tied with Pittsburg with a 12-4 record, but because of tiebreakers will get the 5th seed in the playoffs. Without the 2 seed and a first round bye, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Ravens. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t one of the elite teams in the AFC.

I’m not exactly sure why the Ravens get no love. After all, they’ve only lost to Top 5 teams. And Cinci. I really like the steady play of Joe Flacco and the Ravens as my dark horse. But first things first. They must take care of the Browns on the road. The Ravens defense isn’t as rock solid as they used to be but they have enough tricks up their sleeve to confuse and beat down Colt McCoy. All Flacco has to do is lead a couple of touchdown drives and that should be enough. I’ll put $220 to win $200 on the Ravens (-3.5). I’ll call it 23-16.

BostonMac: (6-8-1), Balance =$775): I called RJ a pussy on the show for locking up the Jets against his Steelers for a backdoor cover. Well, let the tables be turned because I’m about to do the same damn thing. These AFC East games are wars, and they have been since 1960. Patriots at Bills, no matter what the year, in Buffalo in December, is a tough place to pull out a win. These Bills can score too, and they put up 30 against the Patriots in Week 3. I would expect them to score enough to keep pace with New England. Last week’s grind-it-out win for the Pats over Green Bay was more the rule than the exception this season, but we were tricked into thinking the Jets and Bears blowouts were the rule. The Patriots win games this year by holding onto the football, giving up yards but keeping their offense in the game until Brady can open up the game in the second half. Look for more of that on Sunday. This is a one-touchdown game at most, with New England winning in a close one. $110 to win $100 on BUFFALO (+8)

RJ: (8-4-1, Balance =$1065): You may not like it, but the Chargers are back in Full December Beast Mode. If there was one team that I wouldn’t want to see in its way, it’s the Bengals. Sure, the Bengals finally got off the schneid last week with a win against Cleveland, but the Chargers are a completely different offensive animal. And better yet for San Diego, the defense has been in beast mode as well. They almost became the first team since the ’85 Bears to post back-to-back shutouts of 30 points or more. The Bengals are too beat up (Owens and half the starting defense out) and should be disinterested just enough to get steamrolled by the clicking Chargers (-7.5). $110/100

Burton: (7-7, Balance =$675): I’m going all-in on New Orleans to not lose by a field goal or more against Atlanta. The Saints have much, much more to play for, and though it’s a rivalry game, Sean Payton always seems to get the most out of his team when their backs are against the wall. Despite the loss last week, I still think the Saints are playing very good football. It’s tough to go into Baltimore in December and almost win. The defense is only getting better. Not sure how much I have left, but I’m putting every last penny on the Saints.



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