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2009 NFL Week 3 Picks and Podcast

Week 3 is always a pivotal week in the NFL. Teams with playoff hopes that go 0-3 might as well just throw in the towel and teams you’re unsure of at 1-1 might establish themselves as legit if they can just get to 2-1. We break down all the games in the podcast as well as give you betting advice. This week, the featured games are Titans @ Jets, Falcons @ Patriots, Dolphins @ Chargers, and Colts @ Cardinals.

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NFL Week 3 2009 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso Actual
Jaguars @ Texans Texans Texans Texans Texans Jaguars
Packers @ Rams Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers
Titans @ Jets Jets Titans Titans Titans Jets
Chiefs @ Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Browns @ Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Giants @ Bucs Giants Giants Giants Giants Giants
49ers @ Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Redskins @ Lions Redskins Lions Redskins Redskins Lions
Falcons @ Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Falcons Patriots
Saints @ Bills Saints Saints Saints Saints Saints
Bears @ Seahawks Bears Bears Seahawks Seahawks Bears
Dolphins @ Chargers Dolphins Dolphins Chargers Chargers Chargers
Steelers @ Bengals Steelers Steelers Steelers Bengals Bengals
Broncos @ Raiders Broncos Raiders Broncos Raiders Broncos
Colts @ Cards Cards Colts Cards Cards Colts
Panthers @ Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Panthers Cowboys Cowboys
Prev Week 9-7 (.563) 7-9 (.438) 8-8 (.500) 9-7 (.563)
Overall 20-12 (.625) 18-14 (.563) 19-13 (.594) 17-15 (.531)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso Actual
Jaguars @ Texans Texans Jaguars Texans Texans Jaguars
Packers @ Rams Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers
Titans @ Jets Jets Titans Titans Titans Jets
Chiefs @ Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Browns @ Ravens Ravens Browns Browns Browns Ravens
Giants @ Bucs Giants Bucs Bucs Giants Giants
49ers @ Vikings Vikings Vikings 49ers 49ers 49ers
Redskins @ Lions Lions Lions Lions Redskins Lions
Falcons @ Patriots Patriots Falcons Patriots Falcons Patriots
Saints @ Bills Saints Saints Saints Bills Saints
Bears @ Seahawks Bears Bears Seahawks Seahawks Bears
Dolphins @ Chargers Dolphins Dolphins Chargers Dolphins Chargers
Steelers @ Bengals Steelers Steelers Steelers Bengals Bengals
Broncos @ Raiders Broncos Raiders Broncos Raiders Broncos
Colts @ Cards Cards Colts Cards Cards Colts
Panthers @ Cowboys Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers Cowboys
Prev Week 8-8 (.500) 7-9 (.438) 6-10 (.375) 8-8 (.500)
Overall 17-15 (.594) 17-15 (.594) 13-19 (.406) 17-15 (.531)

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (2-0, Balance =$1,100) I’m excited about this game. A surprising Niners team goes up against a Vikings team that is looking to establish themselves as the clear frontrunners in the NFC North. While everyone is high on the Niners (and I picked them to make the playoffs), the win against Seattle had a bit of illusion to it. Without Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are simply not anywhere near as good as they with him. Sure, the Niners took care of business but now they have to travel to Minnesota and go up against Adrian Peterson.

It’s going to be fun watching Frank Gore and All Day trying to break out long runs and outduel each other. Shaun Hill isn’t Brett Favre but he’s doing a good enough job to win games.

While I think this game will be entertaining and close through 3 quarters, I expect the Vikings to wear down the Niners #3 rush defense (they have yet to be tested) and pull away in the fourth quarter. I can imagine one of those runs where the Niners stuff the box to contain Peterson on a 3rd and 2 and once he breaks past the first wave, it’s clear sailing to the endzone, putting a dagger in the Niners defense and also in some poor sap’s fantasy team.

Need a betting trend stat to make you feel better? The Niners are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on turf. I’ll put $110 to win $100 on the Vikings (-6.5)

BostonMac: (2-0, Balance = $1,150) On the podcast, Vin referred to this as a “spite pick,” implying that I’m picking against the Jets because I hate them. Possibly true, but I’m going with my “0-3” rule this week: Good teams don’t start out 0-3. They just don’t. I don’t think there’s any chance that the Titans match their 2008 loss total by Week 3 of 09. Throw in the fact that the Jets treated Week 2 vs. New England as Super Bowl 43 1/2 (even going as far as to name all their ex-Patriots such as Damien Woody, Larry Izzo, and Kevin O’Connell as captains for the game) and this game is prime for a Jet letdown. TENNESSEE (+3) is on the road getting points against a Jets team that, despite what the Gang Green superfans taunted after the game, didn’t play as well last week as the narrative would have us believe. The Patriots were two or three plays away from being up 24-3 at halftime and turning the game into a laugher. Kudos to the Jets for finally beating the Pats in East Rutherford, but their winning streak ends there on Sunday. $55 to win $50.

RJ: (1-1, Balance = $995) I give a lot of credit to Jay Cutler and the Bears for winning a big game at home against Pittsburgh last week. In reality though, (and while trying to not sound like a complete homer–remember I DID pick against them) the Steelers should have won that game pretty easily. Kudos to Cutler for making the plays he had to when he had to. The rest of the game he was below average and the Steelers dominated on both sides of the ball. It also seems like the Seahawks Are Back talk has cooled a little as well. Like Ryan last week, this pick is more about going against one team (Chicago) than being 100% with another (Seattle). I think the oddsmakers are putting a little too much stock into the Bears’ win AND the Seahawks getting run over by the ‘Niners. I don’t think the Bears are good enough as a road favorite to go all the way to Seattle (+2) and win. 55/50.

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