Why A-Rod Isn’t the Biggest Fish in the Sea This Winter

Alex Rodriguez is by far the best player available this off-season and there’s four or five very rich GM’s drooling all over him already. But according to his super-agent Scott Boras, A-Rod is expecting a contract in the neighborhood of 10 years for $350 million. More recent reports indicate that A-Rod would sign for $275 million, a “bargain” for the best player in baseball.

While it would be foolish to deny that Rodriguez is the most talented, most valuable player on the market, he may not be the best option. While there are other third basemen available like World Series MVP Mike Lowell, Hank Blalock and Wilson Betemit, only one compares remotely to A-Rod. And only one may in fact be a better pick-up for a team than A-Rod. For teams going after the soon to be A.L. MVP, consider the younger, cheaper, uber-talented Miguel Cabrera of the Florida Marlins.

Instead of making you wait to hear my biggest reasons for Cabrera being the better player to pursue than Rodriguez, I’ll just give them to you straight up:

1. Cabrera will be 24 when the 2008 season starts, Rodriguez will be 32.

This is significant because a ten-year contract for Cabrera puts him right at the end of the peak of his career, which means the team would get him for, most likely, the ten best years of his career. Rodriguez is still in his peak, but by the end of a ten-year contract, he won’t be producing like the A-Rod of 2007.

2. Cabrera made $7.5 million in 2007, Rodriguez made $28 million.

So, that means in the remaining two years of Cabrera’s contract, his team would pay him half of what A-Rod made last season. Assuming A-Rod gets a ten-year, $300 million contract from which ever team signs him, the first two years will cost the team around $60 million. Cabrera on the other hand, will be paid $15 million over two years if he doesn’t get a new contract, a quarter of what A-Rod will be getting. That’s a savings of $45 million that Cabrera’s new team could waste for three of four years on a top tier pitcher.

So unless Rodriguez can also take the mound and get his team 15+ wins for a few years, Cabrera seems to be the better deal to me. A-Rod’s 2007 numbers and career numbers are both better than Cabrera’s, but let’s take a few things into consideration here:

1. Rodriguez is entering his 15th Major League season (13th full) and Cabrera is entering his 6th (5th full).

That means A-Rod has had eight more full seasons in the majors than Cabrera has. Over their four first full seasons, the numbers stack up quite nicely. A-Rod hit .313 with 143 home runs and 442 RBI’s in his first four full seasons, and Cabrera hit .319 with 126 home runs and 461 RBI’s. While Cabrera is on pace to hit less home runs than Rodriguez, he is on his way to hitting for a higher average and driving in more runs.

2. Cabrera is a much better postseason player.

Cabrera has played in one postseason in his career, in 2003 when he helped the Marlins take the N.L. Wild Card and eventually the World Series. He hit like a man possessed in that postseason and won a ring. He was so young that he couldn’t legally drink the champagne he and his teammates were spraying around after their victory. Rodriguez has never been a very good player when it comes to the playoffs, and despite being on the most talent-laden, expensive team in the majors, he still does not own a ring.

3. While both players are shaky at third base, Cabrera can play the outfield.

Cabrera broke into the big leagues as a left fielder and has played a good chunk of his career out there. At third base he’s a poor fielder, making 20+ errors a season, but his ability to play in left is a major asset to a team, especially when you throw out 13 runners from left field like Cabrera did in 2004. Rodriguez has been a shaky fielder since moving to third base, and has always had trouble handling pop-ups. Even if he moves back to shortstop, A-Rod is trouble in the field.

If you break down the pros and cons of signing each player, Cabrera seems to be a much better option. Recently, Cabrera told the media he would rather stay in Florida than be traded. And why not? The Marlins are a pitcher or two away from making another serious run at the World Series. But, with such a thin free agent class this winter, odds are Cabrera will be moved. A-Rod is also back in negotiations with the Yankees, but my gut feeling is he will go elsewhere. Let’s take a look at the top destinations for each player:

Alex Rodriguez

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – The Angels are the favorites to land A-Rod, because they have the money and are in need of a big bat and a third baseman. The only thing that seems to be holding anything back is possible hesitancy from the Angels’ front office.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are a close second to their cross-town rivals for A-Rod’s services. They desperately need a guy at third, and also have plenty of money to spare. The catch? GM Ned Colletti might want to hang on to the money and sign a cheaper third baseman, so he can get a pitcher as well.

3. New York Yankees – A-Rod could end up right where he started, just for $5-7 million more per year. Yankee fans are overreacting to this loss, because they should still have the tools to make the playoffs next year. Besides, where did A-Rod go in the playoffs?

4. San Francisco Giants – Despite spending $126 million on Barry Zito, the Giants apparently still have enough money to pursue Rodriguez. He would be a huge upgrade over the man he will surpass as all-time home run king when all is said and done in the cleanup spot, and the Giants need a real franchise player with their up-and-coming youngsters.

5. Boston Red Sox – With Mike Lowell possibly leaving, the Sox could go after A-Rod, and they would probably be the favorite if they really pursue him. They’ve got the best team in the world and the cold hard cash to spend. If A-Rod does in fact go to Boston, they might as well just hand them the trophy in Spring Training.

Miguel Cabrera

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – Like I mentioned before, Colletti is looking to get some pop in his lineup, and they need a third baseman. They have plenty of major league-ready prospects to trade to the Marlins. A trade to get Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis would make the Dodgers immediate favorites in the N.L. The catch is that they won’t want to trade James Loney or Chad Billingsley anymore.

2. New York Yankees – The Yankees don’t have enough faith in Wilson Betemit to give him the third base job, so they are pursuing a trade for Cabrera. At this point, it looks like they may not have anything going on because they are unwilling to trade Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy.

3. Florida Marlins – Unless the Dodgers make a move, I don’t see Cabrera going anywhere, and he could be that centerpiece of another dramatic World Series run if the Marlins get some pitchers in place.

So let’s re-cap why Cabrera is a better choice than A-Rod for third baseman-seeking teams this off-season. You take the younger, cheaper player, especially when his numbers are so similar to the older player’s. Cabrera has one more ring in 9 less seasons than A-Rod has and plays much better in October. Also, whoever gets Cabrera is going to get a lot less media drama and attention than whoever signs A-Rod. Sure, he’s the best player in baseball, but with his numbers, age, and price tag, Cabrera has to be this year’s biggest fish.