JDWC’s 2007 MLB Preview…Fashionably Late

Can you smell it? It’s the smell of fresh cut infield grass, Gatorade, and newly-oiled leather. Can you see it? The dusty cleats, sunflower seed-covered dugout floors, and brand new jerseys. Can you hear it? The sounds of popping mitts, cracking bats, and Barry Bonds denying. If you can do all these things, well congratu-frickin-lations, you don’t have allergies.

Even though my nose is stuffed up, my eyes water and my ears are plugged, I can still feel the baseball season starting, and that’s all that matters. Also, as far as I know, my allergies do not affect my brain, so I can still put together my annual predictions. So here goes; better late than never right?

American League West:

 1. Oakland Athletics
 2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
 3. Texas Rangers
 4. Seattle Mariners

The A’s are the team to beat despite losing Barry Zito and Frank Thomas to free agency. They brought in Mike Piazza to fill the void left by Thomas, but if Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez stay healthy, Piazza’s numbers will be good enough to return Oakland to the playoffs. The Angels will be right up there with the A’s all year, behind an extremely strong, deep pitching staff, and Vladimir Guerrero and Garrett Anderson in the middle of the order. The Rangers’ rotation, though much improved, is still not nearly good enough for the team to contend. Mark Teixeira and Michael Young can’t do it  alone. The Mariners are going to be better this year and could challenge the Rangers for third place, but I don’t see them beating the A’s or Angels. Their pitching is a little better than usual, but don’t be surprised if they trade Ichiro mid-season for a good pitcher and another bat.

Player to watch: Rich Harden, SP, Oakland — Harden has been hindered by injuries, but when he’s healthy, he’s good. Really good. As in, best-pitcher-in-the-league good (aside from Johan Santana). If healthy, Harden could easily go for 17-18 wins this year, more than making up for the loss of Zito.

American League Central:

 1. Detroit Tigers
 2. Cleveland Indians
 3. Chicago White Sox
 4. Minnesota Twins
 5. Kansas City Royals

Some people think the Tigers are a one and done team. But, the fact is they only got better in the off-season. By adding Gary Sheffield to its lineup, Detroit has the offense they were missing in the World Series last year. The Indians will make a resurgence after a very disappointing 2006 season, and should challenge for a playoff spot. Not far behind are both the White Sox and the Twins, teams who are not as good as last year, but still have the talent to make a run at the wild card. Even the Royals will be a better team this year, as long as young players like rookie phenom Alex Gordon don’t bust.

Player to watch: Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cleveland — Peralta had a terrible 2006 season after a strong rookie season in 2005. If the Indians are going to live up to their potential this year and challenge Detroit, Peralta is the guy who needs to step up and be a consistent threat in the heart of their order.

American League East:

 1. Boston Red Sox
 2. New York Yankees
 3. Toronto Blue Jays
 4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
 5. Baltimore Orioles

The Red Sox, rather than the Yankees, are finally the team to beat in the East. As long as Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz do their thing and J.D. Drew has a decent season, Boston should take the division. The Yankees’ weak pitching is finally going to catch up to them, and it looks like losing out on the D-Mat sweepstakes actually will be a bigger deal than they thought. The Yankees will still challenge for the wild card with Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota and Los Angeles, and should be able to take it. The Jays will be pretty solid again as long as Alex Rios and Vernon Wells keep up their offense. Don’t be surprised if Tampa Bay finally manages to get out of the cellar, because although they still don’t have pitching, their young offensive talent is even more ridiculous than usual. With Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton and Akinori Iwamura, the Rays have six of the best young all-around players in the American League. Baltimore always finds a way to lose, and this year will be more different, if not worse.

Player to watch: Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston — The World Baseball Classic MVP and $100 million dollar import needs to be a consistent number three for the Red Sox behind Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett to hold off the Yankees.

National League West:

 1. Los Angeles Dodgers
 2. San Diego Padres
 3. Arizona Diamondbacks
 4. Colorado Rockies
 5. San Francisco Giants

The Dodgers are far and away the most talented team in this much-improved division. The loss of J.D. Drew will not hurt them too much as they acquired Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre to fill the offensive void. The signing of Jason Schmidt to be the rotation’s ace is an underrated move and the Giants will see what they missed when Schmidt statistically destroys Barry Zito by year’s end. The Padres will hang in there most of the year behind solid pitching, but the losses of Mike Piazza and Josh Barfield will come back to haunt them. The Diamondbacks are loaded with young talent, but are just a couple years too young for serious contention. The Rockies are also improved, especially with their pitching staff, and have a few mashers in Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday and Todd Helton. The Giants will be very disappointed to find out that Zito is a number three starter at best and that besides Matt Cain, they have no quality pitching. Besides Ray Durham and the occasional appearance by Barry Bonds, San Francisco really doesn’t have an offense either.

Player to watch: Takashi Saito, RP, Los Angeles — Saito came in as the closer partway through last season, and quietly shut down…everyone. With Jonathan Broxton and Saito at the back end of the bullpen, you better get ahead early to beat the Dodgers, because when it gets to the 7th, 8th and 9th, scoring runs, let alone getting on base, is going to get a whole lot more difficult.

National League Central:

 1. Houston Astros
 2. Milwaukee Brewers
 3. Chicago Cubs
 4. St. Louis Cardinals
 5. Pittsburg Pirates
 6. Cincinnati Reds

The N.L. Central is the most intriguing, confusing, exciting division in baseball. My top four teams in the division could finish in any order and if some things really go right in Pittsburgh, they could sneak into that top four as well. I have Houston at the top because the rotation with Roy Oswalt is pretty good and adding Carlos Lee to the middle of the lineup with Lance Berkman is going to be huge. Also, when it comes down to the Clemens sweepstakes, I think the Rocket will once again lean towards hometown Houston even though the Yankees might throw a little more money at him, because the Astros are more likely to make a run at the World Series. The Brewers are a very good team this year, with a good offense and better, healthier pitching. The loss of Lee will hurt them in the long run though. The Cubs spent about $10 billion to win a World Series before 2008, but the injury bug is killing them once again, as Kerry Wood and Mark Prior can’t stay healthy. If Alfonso Soriano has a big year and the pitching staff holds it down, the Cubbies could still sneak into the playoffs. As for the defending champs? Not happening this year, as the rotation is completely messed up and Albert Pujols will be their only consistent offensive force. The Pirates improved their team offensively by acquiring Adam LaRoche from Atlanta, and that move alone distances them significantly from the Reds at the bottom of the division and moves them from ‘pretender’ to …well ‘respectable’ at least. The Reds have some bright spots, but in such a cluttered, crazy division, Cincy is the worst team.

Player to watch: Brad Lidge, RP, Houston — Lidge had a bad year last year, and will need to regain his dominance if the Astros are to win the division. They can’t let close games get away from them because a Central team winning the wild card will be very difficult considering the East is stacked.

National League East:

 1. Philadelphia Phillies
 2. New York Mets
 3. Atlanta Braves
 4. Florida Marlins
 5. Washington Nationals

The Phillies, despite a very slow 1-5 start, are still the best team in the East. Behind Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and reigning MVP Ryan Howard, the Phils have a strong offense to support an improved rotation. Now, they’re not the Mets offensively, but they’ve got New York covered when it comes to pitching. The rotation, even when Pedro Martinez returns, will be the Mets’ Achilles heel this year. They should be able to grab the wild card, unless the Braves step it up to return to the postseason. The Braves’ young hitters will give the Mets a run for their money this season, especially Brain McCann and Jeff Francoeur, who seems to have gained patience at the plate. Don’t count out the Marlins, because this year’s version is better than last year’s that made a run at the end of the season. Led by one of the best hitters in baseball, Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins have a great young corps of hitters to back up a good, young rotation as well. The Nationals, besides Ryan Zimmerman, don’t have much this year, and need to be in a rebuilding phase pretty soon.

Player to watch: Oliver Perez, SP, New York — If the Mets want to make a run at the division, Perez needs to be a consistent number three behind Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez to keep their hopes alive.

Postseason predictions:

ALDS:

Oakland d. Cleveland 3-2

Boston d. Detroit 3-2

ALCS:

Boston d. Oakland 4-2

NLDS:

Los Angeles d. New York 3-1

Philadelphia d. Houston 3-2

NLCS:

Los Angeles d. Philadelphia 4-3

World Series:

Boston d. Los Angeles 4-3

Award predictions:

MVP:

AL: Manny Ramirez, Boston

Honorable Mentions: David Ortiz, Boston; Alex Rodriguez, New York; Derek Jeter, New York; Gary Sheffield, Detroit; Travis Hafner, Cleveland; Mike Piazza, Oakland; Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles; Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston; Jim Thome, Chicago; Grady Sizemore, Cleveland; Johan Santana, Minnesota; Joe Mauer, Minnesota; Justin Morneau, Minnesota; Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle; Michael Young, Texas.

NL: Lance Berkman, Houston

Honorable Mentions: Jeff Kent, Los Angeles; Nomar Garciaparra, Los Angeles; Carlos Lee, Houston; Albert Pujols, St. Louis; Alfonso Soriano, Chicago; Ryan Howard, Philadelphia; Chase Utley, Philadelphia; Andruw Jones, Atlanta; Miguel Cabrera, Florida; Carlos Delgado, New York; David Wright, New York; Carlos Beltran, New York; Jose Reyes, New York; Roy Oswalt, Houston; Aramis Ramirez, Chicago.

Rookie of the Year:

AL: Elijah Dukes, Tampa Bay

Honorable Mentions: Delmon Young, Tampa Bay; Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay; Alex Gordon, Kansas City; Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston; Dustin Pedroia, Boston; Travis Buck, Oakland.

NL: Chris Iannetta, Colorado

Honorable Mentions: James Loney, Los Angeles; Chris Young, Arizona; Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado; Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego; Mike Pelfrey, New York; Homer Bailey, Cincinnati; Josh Hamilton, Cincinnati.

Cy Young:

AL: Johan Santana, Minnesota

Honorable Mentions: Roy Halladay, Toronto; Josh Beckett, Boston; Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston; C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland; John Lackey, Los Angeles; Felix Hernandez, Seattle; Rich Harden, Oakland; Dan Haren, Oakland; Jonathan Papelbon, Boston.

NL: Roy Oswalt, Houston

Honorable Mentions: Tim Hudson, Atlanta; John Smoltz, Atlanta; Tom Glavine, New York; Ben Sheets, Milwaukee; Chris Capuano, Milwaukee; Carlos Zambrano, Chicago; Jake Peavy, San Diego; Jeff Francis, Colorado; Takashi Saito, Los Angeles; Brandon Webb, Arizona.

Comeback Player of the Year:

AL: Rich Harden, Oakland

Honorable Mentions: Gary Sheffield, Detroit; Sammy Sosa, Texas.

NL: Josh Hamilton, Cincinnati

Honorable Mentions: Derrek Lee, Chicago; Ben Sheets, Milwaukee.

Manager of the Year:

AL: Bob Geren, Oakland

Honorable Mentions: Ron Washington, Texas; Terry Francona, Boston.

NL: Ned Yost, Milwaukee

Honorable Mentions: Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia; Lou Pinella, Chicago; Grady Little, Los Angeles; Jim Tracy, Pittsburgh.