It’s almost March, and that means the college basketball world is about to be shaken like a dropped can of soda. I’m talking about BUBBLES, and lots of them.
Major conference teams stand the best chance of getting those precious few at-large bids into the field of 65, though some will have their bubbles burst before Selection Sunday. Here are some bubble teams from each of the six major conferences.
BOSTON COLLEGE GOLDEN EAGLES
19-9 (10-5) RPI: 25
KEY WINS: Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Michigan St.
OVERVIEW: A week-and-a-half ago the Golden Eagles were knocking on the door of an ACC Championship. Now, three losses later to surefire tourney teams (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech), and they’re knocking on the door of the NIT. B.C. doesn’t really have a signature win, having beaten only a few good teams and no great ones. But that RPI is large, and a high profile star in Jared Dudley always tempts the committee to put a team in.
PREDICTION: A good showing in the ACC tourney could seal it, but they should be okay regardless. The selection committee loves the ACC, and that 10-5 mark in conference play will get a team in every time. IN
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
21-9 (9-6) RPI: 31
KEY WINS: Indiana, Michigan St., Bradley
OVERVIEW: They’re in right? Not so fast. The Illini boast Bradley as a “key win”, leading myself and others to ask the question: just who have they beaten? Basically nobody. They lost to the only ranked teams they played against, with the exception of Indiana, ranked #24 at the time. Their key wins are all against other “bubble” teams. They lack leadership and experience, things which are essential for tournament success. But the Big Ten is strong –strong enough to pull in mediocre teams on the rest of the conference’s coattails.
PREDICTION: One factor besides leadership and experience that the committee does put faith in is RPI. The Illini have a good one, once again on the strength of the Big Ten. One win in the conference tourney and you’ll see them in the big dance. IN
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
19-9 (6-8) RPI: 42
KEY WINS: Kentucky, Xavier
OVERVIEW: This is one of those teams that the voters allow to hang around in the polls simply because they were ranked highly before the season. Everyone seems to want to blame Ronald Steele’s injuries for the Tide’s slide, but he has only missed three of Alabama’s twenty-eight games. It is his production (8.8 points per game), not his health, which is hindering the team. The Tide is third in what could be the worst SEC division ever, the West. Mississippi and Miss. State are both ahead of Alabama, and none of them are over .500 in conference play. They have been swept by both Auburn and Arkansas, two incredibly mediocre teams.
PREDICTION: The only quality win on this resume is Kentucky, and that’s not saying much. Alabama has tournament talent, they just don’t have a tournament team. OUT
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
20-9 (9-5) RPI: 55
KEY WINS: Texas, USC
OVERVIEW: Upon first glance, Kansas State looks like an easy pick for an at-large bid. Huggins has his team fourth in the Big 12 in his first year on the bench, including a win over the obvious choice for Player of the Year, Kevin Durant. That “20” in the win column looks pretty convincing, too. How did they get it, you ask? Take a deep breath…William and Mary, Tennessee Tech, Coppin State, Cleveland State, North Dakota State, Kennesaw State, and UMES (Otherwise known as the University of Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks, 3-25 (0-16 in MEAC play) with an RPI of 335, in case you were wondering). Throw in two wins each against Baylor, Colorado, and Iowa State, all three Big 12 bottom-feeders, and you’ve got yourself a nice record.
PREDICTION: The Wildcats must have a win over a significant team in the Big 12 tournament to have a chance. The committee knows how mediocre the Big 12 is, and I don’t see Kansas State sneaking in. OUT
ARIZONA WILDCATS
18-9 (9-7) RPI: 16
KEY WINS: Memphis, Oregon, Louisville
OVERVIEW: Its been a tale of two seasons for Lute Olsen`s boys. At 12-1 in early January, the Wildcats looked poised to pounce on the rest of the nation and again cruise into the tourney. Since then, however, they’ve racked up only six wins in fourteen tries and are stumbling to the finish line. Four losses to the conference’s elite teams, UCLA and Washington State, have prognosticators doubting whether they’ll be dancing come March.
PREDICTION: They need at least one win in the Pac-10 tournament to lock up a bid. But all things considered, with a precious win over Memphis and a great RPI, the Pac-10 will get a fifth team in. IN
SYRACUSE ORANGE
21-8 (10-5) RPI: 49
KEY WINS: Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Holy Cross
OVERVIEW: Syracuse and its fans are in need of some Dramamine. Their team and their tourney hopes have been up-and-down all season long, and no one seems to agree on just how good they really are. \Until recently, that is. The Orange got a much needed quality win against Georgetown, all but locking up an at-large bid. They need to beat Villanova , another bubble team, in order to solidify their spot.
PREDICTION: With a win over the Hoyas, a 10-5 record in the Big East, and one win in the conference tourney, Syracuse will be in easily. IN