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10 NFL Questions: Week 10

Last week, my picks got crushed for the most part. I did get the big one right–Indy over New England. However, last week showed that the Falcons are way too inconsistent to win the NFC South, the Bears aren’t the all-powerful force they have been made out to be, and that the Rams and Vikings may have peaked earlier in the year. I was wrong on all counts. This week, we’ll learn something huge–which team has the power in the NFC. In a conference that lacks consistently good teams, the two best will face off. The Giants and Bears battle for conference supremacy, while the Seahawks and Rams play for the NFC West lead. It’s all about the NFC as we head down the stretch of the 2006 NFL season.Question 1: Who are the elite teams in the NFC?

Whenever an NFC team asserts themselves with a key win, it always seems like they disappoint the next week. A case in point is Atlanta, who laid an egg in Detroit after wins over Pittsburgh and Cincy. The Panthers dropped two straight after four straight wins, and the Eagles find themselves at .500 after a 4-1 start. There are three teams that have averted this plague so far: the Bears, Giants, and Saints. Those teams are the class of the conference and are each leading their divisions. Not one of them has even had a losing streak this season. At this point, those are the only teams I would pencil in for a playoff spot in the NFC.

Besides Chicago, New York, and New Orleans, every other team in the conference has something to prove. The Seahawks need a decisive win over the Rams for me to feel confident in them. They have a great opportunity to finish with at least ten wins, with one of the league’s weakest schedules. Atlanta has a winning record, but until they can beat a team over .500 (which they haven’t), they won’t be playoff-caliber. There are four 4-4 teams with postseason potential: the Cowboys, Rams, Eagles, and Panthers. Of those teams, the Eagles are probably the best. They could be 7-1 if they could hold a late-game lead. The Panthers have enough talent to get to the playoffs, but it is really, really hard to be confident in them after a back-and-forth first half of the season. Dallas and St. Louis, meanwhile, are on the outside looking in. Here are my NFC playoff teams as of now:

(1): Chicago
(2): New York
(3): New Orleans
(4): Seattle
(5): Philly
(6): Carolina

Question 2: Who will win the Bears-Giants clash?

This is clearly the game of the year in the NFC. The Bears come in reeling after a puzzling home loss to the Dolphins, while the Giants have the momentum and home-field advantage. The key for Chicago is the play of Rex Grossman. When he plays well and efficiently, they cruise. But when turns the ball over–like he did 6 times last week–their offense cannot perform. Unfortunately for the Bears, this week won’t be the optimal situation for their quarterback. Grossman’s road rating is half what it is at home, and if this is a close game they can’t rely on him. He holds a 36.4 QB rating in games decided by less than 7 points, and his fourth-quarter rating is a dismal 22.0. The Bears can’t rely on their running game either; they are averaging 3.4 yards a carry on the ground.

To be fair, the Bears do have the best defense in the league. They are one of the only teams that can stop the Giants, who are averaging 359 yards a game. Eli Manning has been efficient thus far, but expect him to have a down week. He’s been held under 200 yards for four straight games, and won’t improve this week against the league’s #1 pass defense. The key for the Bears D is stopping Tiki Barber, the league’s leading rusher. It’s anyone’s call as to whether they can.

Overall, this is the hardest game of the season so far to predict. The oddsmakers don’t know how this one will turn out: they’re giving it a pick-em line. My prediction? I’m hardly confident, but I think that the Bears will somehow find a way to win on the road. Lovie Smith is one of the most underrated coaches in the league, and I don’t think his talented group of players will lose twice in a row. Bears 20, Giants 16.

Question 3: Seahawks or Rams?

This game never gets any hype, but it has quietly turned into one of the league’s best divisional rivalries. After the Rams took three games from the Hawks in 2004, Seattle has won three straight. This one’s at Seattle, where the Seahawks are almost impossible to beat. However, they will lack superstars Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander once again on offense. That leads me to favor the Rams in this one. As long as they can put pressure on backup QB Seneca Wallace, they can win the game. Besides last week’s game against the pitiful Raiders, Seattle’s defense had allowed 28 or more points four weeks in a row, a statistic that is not good when you’re facing the league’s fourth-rated offense. I like the Rams to win a shootout in this one, with Marc Bulger giving his team a much needed win that would send the Rams to the divisional lead.

Question 4: Will the Ravens hold out in the AFC North?

The Bengals have been so inconsistent this season, it’s almost impossible to think that the Ravens could blow their two game lead, especially with a schedule that includes only two winning teams in their last eight games. While their offense is nothing to write home about, at least Jamal Lewis and Steve McNair are both currently healthy, a rarity considering their pasts. The Ravens do have one of the league’s best defenses, allowing an incredible 69 yards a game on the ground and only 14 points per contest. If this team can’t finish at least 11-5 and win the division, it would be considered a collapse.

Question 5: How good are the Jaguars?

The Jaguars have been one of the league’s weirdest teams so far this year. They won their opener against Dallas, shut out Pittsburgh and New York, and won at Philly two weeks ago. However, they have also lost to Houston and Washington, two of the league’s worst teams. How good are they? It all depends on how their defense plays. When their defense allows under 20 points, they are 5-0. However, the Jags are virtually incapable of winning a shootout, especially with David Garrard playing quarterback. While Garrard is 2-0 as a starter this year and has yet to throw an interception, he’s not the world’s most productive passer.

Can they make the playoffs? It all depends on whether the Jags can beat the good teams. While games against Houston, Miami, Buffalo, and Tennessee should be easy wins, they also face the Giants, Colts, Patriots, and Chiefs. Unless they can pull off an upset in one of the latter games, this team will finish 9-7 and will be sitting at home during the playoffs.

Question 6: Which team was the most disappointing in the first half?

The Dolphins are a likely candidate, though it’s almost hard to remember their bad games after their shocking win over the Bears last week. I’d go with the Steelers, who haven’t done anything that closely resembles their Super Bowl run from last year. Though they have still somehow outscored their opponents, this team is 2-6 and tied with the Browns for last place in their division. While most of their star players–such as Willie Parker and Hines Ward–have played well, this team’s problems are mostly from one player–Ben Roethlisberger. His 7-to-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio is a complete reversal of his first two seasons in the league, likely a root of his numerous injuries.

Also, while they have outgained their opponents by an average of 80 yards a game, they are barely outscoring them. An example was last week against Denver, when put up 499 yards and still lost by 11. Of course, this is the result of turnovers in the red zone, which they have had plenty of. I don’t even think the Steelers will do much better the second half of the season. This is a 6-10 team this year at best.  

Question 7: Who has been the league’s most surprising player?

This one is easy: Damon Huard of the Chiefs. When Trent Green went down with a serious concussion in week 1, I was one of many who thought that the Chiefs’ season was over. But Huard has been very productive. He ranks second in passer rating at 105.2–only Peyton Manning has been better. He has 11 touchdowns and only 1 pick–remarkable for a backup who hadn’t seen the field in years. Huard has led the Chiefs to three straight wins over playoff-caliber teams–the Chargers, Seahawks, and Rams. He has yet to lose a home start. And assuming the Chiefs don’t blow one at Miami and home against Oakland the next two weeks, I think they can sneak in to the playoffs in the rigorous AFC.

Question 8: Which team should rebound in the second half?

Every year, some team makes a run down the stretch. This team sometimes does well in the playoffs–like the Steelers last year. So who are the candidates this year? I think the Eagles and Panthers are both much better than their 4-4 records indicate. The Eagles, led by MVP candidate quarterback Donovan McNabb, have the ability to beat any team in their division. Coming off a bye week, I would expect them to smoke Washington and Tennessee at home. However, from week 12 on they play five teams at .500 or better. This tough stretch will test if this team is worthy or not. As for the Panthers, their loss to Dallas two weeks ago puzzled me. But they have the ability to beat some strong teams, as they did earlier this year with the Saints and Ravens. Expect one of these teams at least to make the playoffs.

Question 9: What are the picks for this week?

I’ll make these quick:
San Diego over hosting Cincy. New Orleans over Pittsburgh on the road. Carolina over the Bucs on Monday Night. Denver and Dallas will produce closer-than-expected road wins over Oakland and Arizona. Philly, Indy, and J-ville will all beat weak teams at home.

    Question 10: Who’s the MVP?

Right now, I think Peyton Manning is the leading candidate. While Drew Brees, LT, and LJ are all significant competitors, Manning has led an undefeated squad and has been the only reason they have won many of their games. With plenty of comeback wins and killer stats as always, try to vote against Manning.

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